Member Info for Legalwolf

Hi JC - I agree that the current low share price is pricing in some of the current realities. I think the market is waiting for confirmation that GCAT will be able to agree a restructured deal in respect of its current liabilities (which will require the Prospectus approval). This will then give GCAT the breathing space it needs to secure the non dilutive funding (which will take a few months at least?), whilst at the same time having the £4 million facility from Orca to draw on as/when needed, and avoid any risk of having the security called in over the subsidiary.
Would be good to hear from RM at some point soon though.

Just give us a timescale please!

At the end of the day folks, the drill bit will have the last say here, and prove some of us right, and the others wrong. Even CB recognised and referred to it as "the truth machine" when he was busy spinning and ramping.
As it looks like we are all hanging around for CresWick (even Snip and Rx et al), then why can't we unite around the one thing we all appear to agree on, which is that the CresWick results take on added/crucial importance at least, even though the bulls here don't regard them necessarily as the 'be all and end all' that maybe some others do in terms of what it will mean for the share price and future dilutive placing.

Very rarely do you break a long running trading range on the first test of resistance. Usually it needs at least 3 or more tests, unless its on news, which brings in the volume The next retest will the 4th, and each test brings us closer to breaking it. But this is AIM and anything can happen.
Ultimately, these daily and short term movements matter little I guess, as we know that whatever we hope might happen now in terms of breaking through the 6s and towards the 7s, will indeed happen if or when that Rig news lands, if not before. But just interesting to watch and monitor these things, if you like watching charts and price action, which I do. All imo

Only 3 potential sources of funding that I can see, and I will put them in order of likelihood:
1) Placing (whether higher or lower will depend on CresWick results)
2) Leasing the Rig(s)
3) Selling Danglay
To be honest, you could make a case for Leasing the Rigs being more likely to come before a Placing, based on what AH has said in the RNS. But a Placing will happen for sure, and at some stage in H2 I think.

Tomorrow will be interesting whatever happens. Think we might even see the first test of 6.2p. Let's see!
Then looking beyond and over the coming weeks, I think we will see 7p BEFORE Rig contract confirmation and simply on ANTICIPATION of it being close. Just the move beyond 6p will get that anticipation (and fomo) going. But again, let's see.

AIM is a very difficult market at the best of times, let alone right now when overall market conditions are not great. Takes a lot of skill and luck to get things right on AIM explorers. Everything is just so volatile, and that goes for our emotions and sentiment as investors. Things can change easily and quickly from positive to negative and vice versa.
I have heard it said that '80% of your winnings will come from 20% of your investments'. That's quite comforting when you think about it and I can relate to it as well in terms of my own experience, especially on AIM. And the same company can be in the 80% or 20%, depending on when you catch it. ECR is a good example.

Well, it's difficult for us to know these things for sure, because it all depends on things like the below, which none of us can really predict for sure:
- what funds do ECR have left as of right now?
- what funds will they be spending on CresWick?
- what funds might they receive from leasing out Pinocchio and/or Midas?
- will they receive any funds from asset sales in the near term?
- when do they plan to start drilling in Queensland and how much will it cost?
- will all of the above leave them with enough money to drill in Queensland, or will they need to raise beforehand?
- if they will need to raise, will the outcome at CresWick mean a raise at lower levels or a raise at higher levels

So things could still work out for ECR and prevent that dreaded dilution scenario, but they need some positive outcomes and luck from hereon for sure!

Hi JC - it might be his strategy, but he hasn't managed to pull it off. There will be dilution, RM has confirmed as much, and the extent of it will be revealed by the Prospectus. Yes RM might pull of a non dilutive financing deal in the near future, but it will arrive too late to avoid the dilution that GCAT have to take on right now to pay existing liabilities. Also, they won't get even the non dilutive financing over the line, without having a Prospectus approved, as its approval will be part of the due diligence that any funders will undertake imo.
So getting the Prospectus approved is key, whichever way you think about it. All imo

Tamer - AH is not invested, so how much will he really care about dilution? And it's not in his hands whether or not ECR avoids dilution, that's down to whether AJ can find the gold in quantities at CresWick that he has hitherto failed to do in the recent past at Baileston. All imo

Jaybike - I've not come across this before, so can't say. I'd guess similar to you, that this must be related to the recent raise, and that there will be another notification related to this one in due course. Alternatively, it might be something that has come out of a share audit/book keeping exercise, also related to the raise. I've certainly not come across this holder before and I did a quick search through the notifications in 2019.

Fair enough SnipVW. I can relate to that experience as well. AIM can be very dodgy, which is why I often liken it to a Vegas casino. And I guess you meet all sorts on the strip in Vegas!

SnipVW - in fairness, if you are going to question TS's unwavering belief in ECR, and his longevity when it comes to posting positively about ECR, then the same might be asked about you? You've been negative about ECR for an equally long period, and so what are your own motives/reasons for repeatedly posting negatively about ECR?

Yes, I do think they are promising sounding projects. The problem is the dilution that will be involved if ECR 'fail' at CresWick and then try to instead focus on the Queensland projects. Sometimes you can have decent projects, but it still doesn't mean the company is worth investing in, because they turn into basket cases in the process, with billions of shares in issue. Quite a few examples of such companies on AIM.
So if CresWick doesn't produce the goods, I think I would prefer to exit ECR and then reappraise whether the other projects are worth buying back in for and exactly when to do that.
However, this all depends on ECR's drilling schedule and cash position. Because they might move straight onto Queensland, before CresWick results are out, or they might send Pinocchio to Queensland, whilst Midas continues at CresWick. In these scenarios, I would remain invested throughout.
As you can see, not fully decided as it depends on ECR's intentions, which is why I asked about their proposed drilling schedule earlier today.

You see the thing is that once a share price starts to stir into life, then it also stirs the strategies and emotions of individual investors, when it comes to their own decision making. Folk need to decide whether they want to wait until Rig confirmation and pay a premium, whether they want to miss out on sub 6p now, whether they want to risk waiting until April/ISA allowances (when in both of the past two years, He1 has broken out), etc, etc. And once a share makes its first leg up, the subsequent legs up don't take as long, because the psychology and situation is completely different.
None of these decisions are really forced, or emotions triggered as much, when the share price is sideways ranging, as He1 has been doing. But now that it is starting to stir into life, I think it could get interesting.
Let's see - I never thought this would be at sub 6p going into April (and said as much previously), and wonder what the price will be going into April. All imo and DYOR

Rxdav - I don't actually disagree with your 11:48. I think I have been saying for a few weeks now (and before the recent BM results) that ECR really need to start producing some share price moving drilling results now. I also said that BM and CresWick represented the last throws of the dice, otherwise it could end up as death by dilution here (SnipVW's point).
With the BM results out of the way, CresWick now represents the next throw of the dice. And if they don't get good results out of CresWick, I will just take the hit and exit from ECR.
So my patience here also has its limits.

In due course, it would be good to hear more from ECR about exactly how this second Rig is going to "ramp up" their drilling plans. Will they deploy it to work alongside Midas, or will it tackle one of the other target areas at CresWick? And then what are the plans for both Rigs in the medium to longer term?
AH mentioned renting out the Rig outside of ECR's own drilling schedule, and again, would be good to know more about what that schedule looks like?

It would be good for RM/GCAT to explain the delay over the Prospectus. Even confirming that they have to complete the governance review first, would be helpful information to have.

Good RNS that:
-Second Rig has arrived and will be prepared for deployment at Creswick
- Expressions of interest to lease it outside of ECR’s own leasing schedule.
- Income from leasing will cover a significant portion of the Creswick drilling!
- Having 2 Rigs operational will reduce timescales for drilling campaigns.
- ECR already have the personnel to operate it.

All sounds really good and it looks like ECR might have 2 Rigs operating on the ground soon.

Pauly80 - yes I do actually. There is nothing that has happened to KAV, or which has been written about KAV, which I think is not fixable with a £3.5 million budget. You mention the fall from 6.2p to 1p. Well, that rise to 6p was itself caused entirely by the drilling at the KSZ. The outcome of that drill was not a total failure in that they missed the B1 conductor(s) rather than they drilled through B1 and it didn't contain any mineralisation.
Now, they are fully funded to return to B1 and have another go, this time aided by the outcome of the 2021/2022 campaign, as well as the work they will have done since. And when they do return to B1 later this year (as today's RNS commits them to doing), then there is EVERY chance of seeing the share price react positively to that development, as it did the first time round. Are you seriously suggesting the share price will be anywhere near 1p, if or when they do return to B1? If so, then that is indeed extreme - extremely ridiculous. All imo and DYOR