Member Info for Legalwolf

"........so where would you put your "speculative cash" Legal, ECR?"
Tamer, you have actually nailed the point I was going to come onto, with this very question. I do think it is worth speculating on the outcomes of the latest holes at BM and/or CresWick. I would NOT be willing to speculate on the other Baileston targets.
As I said a few days ago, positive drilling results at Blue Moon will restore some sentiment in ECR and bring in some buying, which sentiment I believe will carry over into the CresWick campaign. That's the bet/call that I have made anyway, by investing here now, where I think the chances of upside are stronger than the chances of downside. But you never can predict these things on AIM and I could easily be wrong. And of course the BM results could be pants.

If the GSMB were/are acting in good faith in the first place when they suspended, then more reason to expect a positive outcome in a shorter timescale. But if they suspended for ulterior motives in the first place, then they aren't going to roll over so easily, or so quickly, especially if the same people/forces that suspended are still involved/in control.
So let's hope it was all just a genuine issue in the first place, but the timing of the suspension always struck me as interesting when it happened, coinciding as it did with the removal of the Char and the DG. All imo

I remain very interested in seeing how this story unfolds. It's a real drama in terms of what's actually going on behind the scenes and what the eventual outcome will be. Various outcomes have been debated on here, some with more credibility to them than others, but none of them would come as a total shock if they ended up happening, in that you could look back in hindsight and point to the signs. The following have each and all been discussed:
1) They will bounce back strongly and relatively intact, following a new funding deal with Philoro. The dream will then be back on. Multi-bagger scenario for sure.
2) They will be subject to some kind of regulatory action as per all the TW stuff, effectively meaning game over.
3) They won't be able to meet their liabilities, either because the Prospectus is not approved, or approved in time (been waiting months already?) and they can't reach agreement with creditors, who then take action. A possible game over scenario as well this?
4) They are unable to agree funding with Philoro or anyone else. Hard to see a way back from this outcome either?
5) They end up doing a deal (enforced or by design) which hands over the keys/control of the assets to others? Game over for GCAT.
6) The whole thing has been some kind of elaborate share trading racketeering, as per the examples given by Trek some weeks ago.
There are probably some other outcomes as well that have been missed out, and some of the above might be a bit extreme/conspiracy theorist, but just what is going to end up happening here is fascinating, more so as they have stopped doing the media interviews as well, and its just the odd tweet. All imo and DYOR

I agree with the points that have been made by Melville and Rx, about it all ultimately coming down to whether or not ECR have commercial quantities of gold (or other mineralisation) in their projects in the first place! AND even then, they need to be are able to find that gold! Since the initial encouraging drilling results at CresWick and Blue Moon from a few years back, ECR's drilling results since then, have mostly left a lot to be desired. One or two decent holes, but mostly otherwise a pile of rubbish and pointing away from anything commercial.
However, I think the candle of hope is still burning bright for BM and CresWick. They have just drilled the very spot where they had the excellent results last time round, so that's a standalone reason to be optimistic about the results from there. And the last drill campaign at CresWick also had one or two decent holes, even before the re- assaying, to add to the very first campaign results at CresWick all those years ago now.
So overall, I think the candles of hope are still burning on these two projects, but BM will be extinguished if they produce bad results again. As for CresWick, if results are disappointing, then even though its a large scale project and will still have potential due to its sheer scale, it will represent a big blow for belief in ECR's ability to unlock any such potential.

I completely agree that we should have seen some Director Buys here, well before now. And that it would be good to see some Director Buys in the near future.
However, right now, I can't think of anything that could affect the share price more than the outcome of Rig negotiations. That is stating the bleedingly obvious, when you consider that this single issue, has driven the share price performance here, more than any other, over the last year!
Therefore, I would not be surprised if right now, they are genuinely in a closed period, pending the outcome of the Rig negotiations. Imagine if after a long hiatus in Director Buys, you suddenly get a sequence of events whereby on Day 1, they all announce significant Director Buys, and then within a few days or weeks of that, they announce the Rig contract.
That would surely raise a few eyebrows in terms of the whole notion and purpose of having closed periods in the first place.
But I am no expert as to what does and does not constitute a closed period, and of course, it will all likely depend on the prevailing circumstances behind closed doors, so none of us can ever reliably opine as outsiders, whether a company is in a closed period or not, and if so, when that situation will change.
But yes, Director Buys when they are able to would be good. All imo

Roger65 - its the standard sales pitch for pretty much all juniors, to talk about the high demand v supply crunch for their particular commodity, and talk about the coming secular bull market in commodities. Just go through the presentations for these companies and you will see all sorts of wonderful graphs about increasing demand and price projections between now and 2035. It's all built on anticipation of a jam tomorrow scenario unfolding, whether its the boom in precious metals or supply crunch for industrial metals, or the surging demand for EV metals. The basic sales pitch is the same. We have heard it so many times.
Now that's not to say that its all built on sand, and that these bullish scenarios will not unfold. I am sure they will when the cycle next arrives. But nobody can say, or will attempt to say, when this bull market will actually commence, but they will always indicate its immanency, and say the same again the following year, and so on until it actually arrives!
There's a lot of luck involved here for the companies as well. If they are relative new IPOs when the bull market arrives then great. But if they have been operating for a number of year and in more bearish conditions, and don't make a discovery, they can quickly finding themselves diluting a lot, going from hundreds of millions of shares in issue into the high billions. And so when the bull market does finally arrive, they are less attractive an investment, despite still having the promising projects. A prolonged bear market can/will do lasting damage to a number of these juniors. Not all of them will have the same lustre and appeal when the bull market arrives.
None of this is aimed specifically at POW, but is a more general musing (or rant) on my part. All imo

BCB - some of us suspect POW might already have had some assay results back from earlier holes at Molopo at the very least. In any case, POW have said that they will RNS an outcome at Molopo once they are in receipt of all results and have reviewed them, which most have taken to mean that it will be a few months at least before we hear anything.
You know how the game works as you have played it long enough - do you think if they had "good assays" they would, or will, not release those on receipt, and wait instead until all results are in and have been reviewed, allowing the share price to lose all of its momentum in the meantime? That's not how these juniors usually do things, and its certainly not how POW operate either. However, I could be very wrong about this (and it wouldn't be the first time), but it just feels like a can kicking exercise to me. All imo

I'm wondering whether this RNS is 'the done deal' that we are maybe thinking it is, or whether it does no more than confirm the position at the AGM, that He1 would be exploring a Rig sharing option, as ONE of the options available to it. In order to even properly explore a Rig sharing option, the two companies would need to have some kind of initial agreement/understanding, to see if they had enough common ground in the first place, to make Rig sharing a possible 'win win' for both parties, and then agree a framework around exploring the Rig sharing option. So this agreement is a basic pre-requisite, before each company can even credibly and properly consider whether Rig sharing is even a viable in the first place.
So the fact that they have now entered this initial agreement, does it NECESSARILY change/shift the position at the AGM or merely confirm it? The RNS is very limited and notably, perhaps, not accompanied by any comments by LB - not adding comments could be because it then avoids saying anything committal towards the agreement imo! There is also nothing to say that its a binding agreement, that ties each company exclusively to a Rig sharing option, and thereby prevents each company from continuing its own search for a Rig independently of the other? I note here the comments that IS and LB made at the AGM about the MOU agreed by DM being "worthless". How is this agreement any more binding than the MOU?
Moreover, I am wondering whether agreeing to collaborate makes commercial sense, irrespective of whether or not the two companies end up sharing a Rig, or have a genuine desire to do so? This is because it might well give them collective bargaining power/leverage not only when having their collective negotiations, but also during their own independent negotiations with Rig providers?
Overall - in the absence of further comment from LB/He1, how confident/sure can we be that this RNS now means that the Rig search is now focussed solely on the Rig sharing option and/or that Rig sharing is indeed the preferred option for each company - surely they can only know whether its the preferred option AFTER exploring all the options, including the sharing one? All imo

The Tanzanian Govt are well used to junior companies doing JVs, like any other jurisdiction. I imagine they already have a number of JV projects already operating in the country, from which they are getting tax and other revenues, which ultimately is what will matter most to them, you would think. They aren't going to care whether its tax paid by Noble One, or Noble Two!!!

I think a number of us have discussed recently, and acknowledged, that we aren't likely to see significant and sustained share price movement here, until the earlier of sector sentiment returning, or exploration results which are worth buying into. Adding cheaply to our already burgeoning portfolio of 'jam tomorrow' projects and IPOs isn't going to move the bear market, as has been evident to date already. This situation is not unique to POW of course, and applies equally to most of its peers who are still searching for that first company making discovery.
Therefore, I'm not going to entertain false expectations or hopes for POW's share price just right now. I think we will need to get closer to an outcome from this campaign at Tati before I get excited again. However, it's probably going to be well into Q2/Q3 before we get assay results from Tati? All imo

Am I right in thinking that ECR are now finished at Blue Moon, and should in that case be preparing to move the Rig to CresWick? We could do with a drilling update in that case imo.

I wouldn't be so sure actually. Noble have a lot more work to do in terms of getting targets drill ready and securing a farm in partner. Therefore, it might work just as easily to allow He1 to drill its single target at Tai, and then release the Rig for Noble to do whatever drilling it can afford, from only the two initial targets to multiple targets (if its gets a farm in partner). But let's see.

This will have enabled He1 to benefit from the Rig discussions that Noble had already commenced, rather than starting everything from scratch. A smart move in that sense as well. Share price has continued to be accumulated at sub 5.4p in recent weeks and with this news, I would expect that steady buying to continue now that we have something to anchor our expectations around in terms of Q3 drilling, and the prospect of further announcements. Therefore, every chance of a move up to the next trading range between 5.5p and 6p in the next few trading sessions, but let's see.

Recently Noble issued an announcement that they were in advanced discussions over a Rig and expected to announce something imminently. I now think we will get confirmation of selected Rig contractor much earlier than previously expected with this collaboration. This now pretty much confirms that drilling will commence by August.
Should hopefully be the start of a positive period of newsflow.

Hi BCB - many thanks for your response. Much appreciated and I hope your patience and commitment here pays off in the long run.

I think the key question is whether the next raise will be at higher prices and involve less dilution. In order for that to happen, there needs to be a rise in the share price, which is then sustained/maintained at higher levels. In order for that to happen, we need a FOMO type of situation to be created by ECR. In order for that to happen, they need to convince enough buyers that they will lift the share price with whatever money they currently have. In order for that to happen, they need to pull out some drilling results that are worth buying into, and then give us the prospect of more good drilling results to come.
I believe we are at a juncture where this kind of FOMO situation could happen. Firstly, the share price is trading very low as it is. Secondly, there are results from Blue Moon to land soon, which if they are positive, will act as a trigger imo for a move up, because after that, we know they will be drilling at CresWick, using existing funds. And then the rise can be sustained by CresWick drilling results. So its very much game on from here, without worrying about financing just yet, but as always, we need the drilling results to worth buying into.
Blue Moon to go first....

Zan_TM - in response to your earlier question, yes the issue of the Prospectus is a necessary pre-requisite for me, before even considering reinvesting here (hence why I have been going on about it to the point of probably belabouring it). If or when the Prospectus is issued, I will then assess GCAT afresh. Almost like you would do when first investing into a company. They key questions for me AFTER the Prospectus is issued, and to help me decide WHETHER to reinvest won't be massively different to the rest of you I imagine, and will include things like:
- The number of shares in issue and to be issued post Prospectus.
- The situation with the CLNs.
- The situation with funding/finances.
- Whether the above restructuring will mean that GCAT will have large sellers/selling to contend with going forward.
Those of us who were invested here throughout last year, will testify to how the constant selling/sellers (GPLAT etc) caused the share price to struggle, even after positive announcements were being made. Therefore, whatever the position here post Prospectus/re-structing the debt/financing, if its going to leave the share price saddled with large selling/sellers to contend with, then it becomes a less attractive investment, notwithstanding the potential of the projects. And we just repeat the cycle of last year again, wondering why the share price is not moving up on good news. All imo

BCB - I often find that you comment about the volume, whenever a share price drops, and make the point about not worrying too much when the drop is on low volume. I've been curious about this response, as it sort out runs counter to what I have been led to believe/understand and experienced myself in such circs. Therefore, I would ask:
- Does it actually matter whether drops are on low volume or not? If so, exactly how and why?
- Doesn't the drop on low volume signal that sellers don't need to exert much effort for the price to drop, which is hardly a positive?
- Doesn't the drop on low volume signal that there is a lack of buying interest as well?
- Won't MM then just take the price to where ever the most volume emerges?
- Overall, is the net effect of a share price falling through a key level, necessarily any better, because its on low volume?

Genuine questions out of a desire to learn/understand, rather than disagreeing with you?

need to

As he's no longer a Director, would he even to notify about his share dealings?