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I find myself agreeing with aspects of both Tray and Roger's posts, which might appear odd given that they appear to have opposing views. Tray makes very valid points about the longer term outlook for POW and that it has a lot more value than is reflected by the current share price, as well as about the newsflow that is coming up here over the next few quarters. However, we all know that even a month is a very long time in AIM, during which a share price can rise or fall quite significantly depending on the sentiment and newsflow (actual and anticipated) at that point. Therefore, we also have to factor in the points that Roger makes about current sentiment and current likely share price direction in the VERY near term.
It's also valid to be concerned about dilution, because POW will need funds again at some point and the extensive programme at Molopo wouldn't have come cheap. Ideally, you want the share price to grow in between placings, to avoid the spiral effect that a lot of juniors are going through at the moment, where they are diluting at successively lower levels, which is really hurting shareholders and turning once promising looking investments into bad investments, despite those juniors having promising sounding projects. We don't want that to happen here.
So overall, reading both postings, sort of has me thinking about which is going to come earlier from the following events described in the postings (and the below is not intended to be exhaustive):
1) Explorations results which lead to a sustained rise in the share price?
2) A return of sector sentiment which leads to a sustained rise in the share price?
3) IPO or some other activity (such as new acquisition) which leads to a sustained rise in the share price?
4) Or POW needing to raise funds again?
And because we don't know, it's hard to say which viewpoint carries more force at this moment in time, and which is overly optimistic or overly pessimistic. All imo

Maybe this is why they are thinking of going for new acquisitions and which represent lower hanging fruit?

I know its not easy, but this is now the third drilling campaign in succession, where the outcome KAV have delivered has not been as expected, or lived up to all the pre-drilling optimism and hype that they have created. They are starting to look anything but the sophisticated explorer they are making themselves to be!
On the plus side, this might make a return to B1 even more compelling now than it was before. I'm not sure returning to the KCB is going to create anywhere near the same excitement/sentiment as before now. All imo

Zan_TM - thanks and understood. If GCAT's position was not such a mess, then Orca/Koenig having security over the mine would be less of a concern. However, given the precarious position GCAT is in, I do think this development needs to be added to the Risks you outlined a few days ago. A default will become difficult to avoid if they don't get the Prospectus issued? And then what happens now that Orca hold a security over the subsidiary and hence its assets?
Overall, I do wonder if bets and outcomes are being hedged here, and the subsidiary could end becoming subject to some kind of transaction in the future, which might or might not be to the detriment of GCAT and its shareholders? All imo and DYOR

Sorry not "providing" shares but "pledging" shares.

Just trying to ensure that I have understood this correctly. At the moment, GCAT don't have the authority to issue shares to pay back loans taken/monies owed. Therefore, they have ended up providing shares in the subsidiary, which owns the Kilimapesa mine, as security in the event that they are not able to pay back any CLN obligations?
Therefore, in the event of any default by GCAT, ORCA have a share in the Kili mine to cover that scenario.
If so, isn't that sort of what OCIM were after?

Is it the case that ORCA can convert any loaned money into shares at any time? Makes no sense otherwise for them to loan the money?

APR - I agree that the availability of non dilutive financing is key. But even any non dilutive financing won't happen without the Prospectus being issued. I have a feeling that the settlement with Mill End might also involve drawing on this additional facility agreed with ORCA, to then pay Mill End. Again, that can't happen without the Prospectus.
Of course, the Prospectus will also tell us how much dilution has occurred because of recent events. But the main thing is that they get it approved.

Cocobean - good post and I agree with much of that, except that I would say that it is unrealistic to expect the Rig contract to be signed by early March. I don't think they will actually decide which Rig option to go with until sometime in March, and then it will take probably another month from that point to sign contract.
Therefore, I think April/May is a more realistic timescale for Rig contract. What I do think we can expect in March is an interim update, which confirms which Rig option they have decided to go with, subject to contract being finalised. They might also then confirm the proposed drilling date, again subject to the contract being finalised. All imo

IMO the turning point, if there is to be one, surely has to come with the approval of the Prospectus? They simply won't be able to issue the shares to meet their existing liabilities, and execute their current and forward 'rescue' plan(s), without it. The additional £4 million loan facility in today's CLN is also conditional on the Prospectus being approved.

The reason people are rightly questioning the motives of certain posters right now, is that those posters (some of whom are supposedly LTH) appear to be rigidly holding onto only negativity, even in the face of facts/arguments to the contrary, which facts/arguments they point blank just ignore, or refuse to engage with. That is usually NOT the behaviour of genuine, but disgruntled shareholders. Rather, it is more symptomatic of posting with a particular bias/agenda in mind.
Let's think about this logically and see if such postings makes any sense, from the perspective of the poster being someone who is a genuine and well intentioned LTH poster. For those of us who are LTH here, we have had to endure a 12 month nightmare over the Rig etc. Usually, you would have exited this stock a long time ago, based on just 30% of the rubbish we have had to put up with here over the Rig. Yet, as LTH we have hung on here despite all the pain/frustration and all the negatives that might or might not feature in our analysis of He1. How often have we held underperforming/underwater stocks for this amount of time and through this amount of pain? Now some might be holding out of necessity, because they are underwater. But even they must surely have retained some positive belief to still be holding? So basically, my point so far is, all genuine LTH must have retained some positivity, surely, in order to still be here/holding?
Now lets think about this some more, again logically. The company are fully funded for the drilling. They have gotten rid of DM, who many thought was the chief architect/person responsible for the pain we have had to endure. They have replaced him with someone who appears to be well liked/respected by most. Furthermore, they have just had an AGM, where I lost count of the number of times the new CEO said that sorting out the Rig was her and He1's number 1 priority. There were a number of others positives to come out of the AGM. Against this, there were hardly any NEW negatives to come out of the AGM, for genuine LTH to suddenly become so disillusioned about.
So logically you might ask: why would any genuine and well intentioned/motivated LTH, suddenly UP their negativity at this VERY moment in time? Surely, this is a time for any LTH to be giving He1 the benefit of whatever doubt they might still have, or at least give the new CEO a bit of time to prove herself (and you wrong)? If you are not willing to do so, then just why have you been a LTH all this time? What has changed so dramatically?
Overall conclusion: some are engaging in (smoke and mirrors style) de-ramping antics, whilst presenting themselves as something else! And, we can expect much MORE of this, until LB sorts out the Rig. I call it the Bullish BS indicator. It usually starts to flash when a stock has high interest and is poised to make a move. All imo and DYOR

All is not lost here. Most of us know that if they announced a return to B1, the share price would likely circa double from here. I'm not saying they will announce this anytime soon (they probably wont), but just saying that right now, they do have this card to play should they choose to (but subject to any target delineation etc work that still remains). Therefore, imo it is worth holding onto/accumulating stock at these levels just for that possibility alone. This is not one of those situations/companies where you can't see any light at the end of the tunnel. And that's without any positives that there still are in the rest of the portfolio/elsewhere. That's how I feel anyway.
Hopefully, we get a strategy this month that is the start of a bounce back for sentiment in KAV.

We all know the game when it comes to deramping. NOW is a good time to do it, as once FOMO takes over it becomes too late/more difficult. All imo

Shares will continue to be scooped up at these levels. Accumulate what you want to carry into Rig news.

Good post Skippy. This is all about having your own view, and strategy, and not listening too much to others, particularly rampers or de-rampers, and going off course re your own strategy. I think there will continue to be lots of these types of posts/posters in the run up to the Rig announcement, particularly as He1 has a lot of interest in it.
As we all know, AIM is very volatile and a lot can happen in a very short space of time. It depends on how LB wishes to approach comms with shareholders during this period. Will she provide interim updates, or only when there is something concrete to report?

I thought I heard them say that the 1+1 option is still on the table, but a decision on the latter can only be taken once they have the outcome of the former, which sort of makes sense. There might still be shallower targets in play - something that it would be good to hear about at some stage, as these were talked up by DM at one stage, and then it all went quiet and nothing further was said (unless I have missed it)?

It's still a boom or bust scenario until they get the Prospectus imo. That's now out of their hands and down to the FCA. I wonder if the governance review is something the FCA might have advised or GCAT have done of their own volition.
Anyway, February was the timescale that RM gave for the Prospectus so not long to go.

ITV - I think some of the time taken, and currently being taken, is in actually deciding which option they are going to take, and whether going it alone will work out better for He1 than sharing a Rig. Having more options doesn't always make it easier, and makes the selection process more time consuming. Once they make their decision, they can move swiftly through the contract process.
LB said keeping shareholders updated was important to her, but also that she doesn't want to announce anything until its contractually agreed. I would expect an announcement, or update, by end of April.
IMO, time to just scoop up what you can/want at these lower levels, and then patiently wait it out for LB to deliver the news we have all been waiting for.
Will LB do any media/promotion in the meantime I wonder? Probably difficult as the only thing everyone will want to know/ask her about is the one thing she won't be able to comment on, which is the Rig!

Risk 3 (or should be Risk 2 really, as everything else will depend on it) is will they get FCA approval this month?
Interesting to read re this CLN that the "Net proceeds shall be used to fund general corporate requirements and the Company's working capital."

Let's hope he's on a fee paid basis only!