RE: The problem with the retail offer....28 Feb 2023 10:55
I don't disagree or argue with the basic premise of your post. When you compare the two term sheets, there are significant differences between them, which it is reasonable to infer could be due to the jurisdictional risks, which has resulted in this restructured financing, with the majority of it being provided as convertible loans. I think if you invest into Cora, you have to take on the jurisdictional risk. At its highest, the risk includes Cora not getting supported by the ruling regime, whether that manifests itself through not supporting the development of Sanankoro, to not awarding the mining licence, etc. Cora/BM and the large shareholders will know a lot more about the risks than ordinary retail shareholders.
At some point, you would think, BM might want to tackle this issue head on, especially if he has any re-assurances he can offer. The 'in country team' at Cora, in particular, will know a lot more about what the realities on the ground are right now for Cora operating in Mali. Is it BAU with the new mining authorities, for example? Do they have good relationships with the new regime. Are Cora even a big deal for the authorities? This kind of re-assurance will be key to instilling (retail) investor confidence, which in turn will be key to driving growth. A lot of people are put off Cora because its in Mali!
As for the large shareholders, I can't imagine they would wait for a doomsday type scenario to unfold, before recouping their investments. Rather, I would expect them to be selling (the majority of) their shares well before anything like that happens? They will likely get to hear of any looming difficulties well before the rest of us, as I believe they get more regular updates behind the scenes than we do from Cora. Retail are always the last to find out. That's just the way it goes and we have to factor it into our decision making. All imo and DYOR