Member Info for Legalwolf

Also, there is no guarantee that NHE will secure a farm out, and whether the Rig share is only a backup option for them if they don't get the farm out? And if they do end up with cash from a farm out, will they still want to Rig share and allow us first mover advantage?

If we take the most recent update we have had, which was the interview on 13 March, then this is what LB actually said:
- In discussions with several Rig operators. Therefore, she was very confident that they will spud in Q3.
- "We're moving closer to contract execution and I'm confident that we will be able to announce something very soon..."
- She wanted to stress that the collaboration agreement did not mean He1 will secure a Rig with NHE, merely, that they will explore this option with NHE and whether/what costs it would save on mobilisation/demobilisation and third party service.
- Under the collaboration agreement, it's been made clear that He1 will drill first.

"Noble Helium is well advanced in identification of a drill rig that is capable of efficiently and cost effectively completing both wells as planned. Discussions around a farm-out are also progressing well under the management of Lab Advisors in the UK."

LB also said the same so far as HE1 are concerned in the recent interview. So Rig news can't be too far away. In fact, they probably have the Rig contract ready to go, and its the NHE farm out that they are waiting on?

I don't think serious investment will come here until current issues/risks are addressed in RNS, as what RM says in interviews and tweets has not transpired in the past. Therefore, it needs to be RNSs to address things like prospectus, loan repayments, finances generally and gold production/sales.
As for selling, I would imagine that some will be coming from converted shares from CLNs, as well as traders?

I don't know much about 88e. But having seen that it has 20,108 million shares in issue, that's enough to put me off wanting to know more?

Anyone got any thoughts on why NHE have opted to go down the farm out route, whereas He1 have not? I also understand that He1 won't be looking at farm out post any discovery, as they don't see the capex required for development to be beyond their means to raise? Is it simply that NHE have opted for a multi target campaign, which can't be done without farming out some of the costs, whereas He1 are going for a cheaper 1+1 drilling campaign around a single target. Or is it to do with the fact that equity financing is easier to raise for a junior listed in London than on the ASX?

Time will tell Mickey, but let's hope you are right about that.

Err Kutzz, the last placing was at 0.12p. They will do well to get the next one off in the "teens" and that would mean a placing at a higher level than the last one?

I just can't bring myself to listen to AG anymore. He would probably remain bullish and talk up ECR's prospects even if the company went into liquidation! What did he have to say this time ;-)

Absolutely spot on Itsyou. The true extent of the dilution is soon going to become apparent when the Prospectus is published. I suspect it will be very painful, but the really important thing is whether there will be more dilution to come (through CLNs) from hereon, or whether an increase in gold production/sales will prevent the need for further dilution, until the financing package is agreed in Q2/Q3.
The thing with GCAT is that they don't have a record of being transparent with CLNs. So will they actually tell us if/as they drawdown this $4 million facility they have with ORCA, or do we just find out several months later (like as has been happening before). One would hope that the governance review will lead to greater transparency and more timely comms. All imo and DYOR

Yes, sadly, it does look that way. This prolonged bear market is going to have a lasting and fatal impact on a lot of these juniors, simply by virtue of saddling them with so much dilution, that they will struggle to regain sentiment because of that, even when the bull market returns?

Well, the market doesn't appear to be all that convinced so far by the JV talk so far. AIM companies will often RNS if they are in (advanced) discussions over a JV, so if that is true of ORR, following Cape Town, then they should RNS an interim update to that effect, unless there is any NDA that prevents them doing so!

There are good reasons to be cautious about RM/GCAT, and what they say/promise in interviews. They don't need repeating here. A lot of the market will not only act on results in RNS, rather than words in interview. RM confirmed the Prospectus is being finalised, and so I suspect there's also an element here of getting the good news out first, because most are expecting the dilution revealed by the Prospectus to be very high?
The question for this next 3-6 months then becomes one of whether this new high grade zone will generate enough revenue and in sufficient time for GCAT not to have to drawdown on the £4 million loan facility recently agreed with ORCA, until they get financing over the line in Q2/Q3? If they hit 1000oz/month, that should be sufficient to finance all operations you would think? All imo and DYOR

Do we even know if ORR are in JV discussions. There's not been anything confirmed in RNS to say that they are? All we have had is that they were seeking a JV partner, which was no surprise given the cash position and dilution to date.
Time is of the essence, because as Kutzz has alluded to, they don't have all the time in the world to agree a JV/raise project finance, before they will need to come back to the market for another raise. And if they do that, it will be a raise at very painfully low levels.

Roger65 - I thought you HAD sold out? I'm sure I recall you posting soon after the RNS, that you were going to do just that?

The longer this bear market continues, the more dilution all of the juniors are having to take on, at increasingly lower levels. The bear market dilution will leave a permanent mark on most of them, even for when the bull market returns. For POW and the rest of the sector, this much awaited bull market can't come soon enough, otherwise they will just end up saddled with so many shares in issue, that it then makes them less appealing (than newer companies for example) when the bull market comes around.

Can't imagine her to raising a pint of mud to us during the drilling, like DM did at Tai1? He was SO confident of discovery during that video and must have been thinking of the new house he was going to buy and had promised the missus. I wonder what he'll be doing/thinking this time round?
Maybe we'll see him in the background somewhere, operating the Rig he was supposed to sort out!!!

Thanks AG - I read that document and I think its very good in setting out some of the steps that have been taken to date. I agree with your post about the funding, and the need for ORCP to clarify the details around that. The funding is obviously the most difficult part of any project, and with the size of the capex here, it's going to need probably a syndicate of funders, all of which is going to take a long time to sort out, maybe even over a year?

How is having a timetable/timeline going to be bad for sentiment? IMO it would have a positive impact on sentiment and show some conviction on the part of ORCP. By not having any idea of timescales, then it just seems more open ended and unclear. It's harder to gauge progress, work out likely inflection/value points, all of which is not good for sentiment, which lets face it, isn't all that strong anyway.

It's vital that OMI recognises the importance of regular newsflow over ANZA and negotiates it into the agreement, even though it will no longer have any operational control over the project*. I am not saying it will happen here, but it is not uncommon to hear of the major(s) playing it tactically with the juniors, after these JV agreements have been agreed. At the very end of this drilling, if the project is successful and leads to a mine development, the major(s) will want to take out OMI's remaining stake? If so, it won't not suit them for OMI to have a large mcap/share price when that point in time arrives. Again, I have heard CEOs of junior explorers bemoan JV agreements that were signed by their predecessors, for not having sufficient protections built into them. Does OMI have all these safeguards already? All imo
*Regular newsflow is the very lifeblood of AIM companies.