Member Info for Legalwolf

How much does ORR stand to gain from the Elephant IPO?

On Monday, there was a delayed and late reported trade of £250k (broken into 2 x £125k) at 6.5p. Did anybody else notice it at the time?

For all we know, the strategy at He1 could be as follows:
1) Wait for the collaboration, as it will save us millions, whilst still drilling in Q3.
2) But at the same time, have the more expensive back up option lined up, but keep it on ice pending the outcome of 1.
IF this is the approach that He1 have adopted, then it makes perfect sense and is a no brainer, so long as the Q3 date is not compromised, if option 1 falls through and we end up having to go for option 2.

Other possible, but less likely, reasons might be that we are looking to farm into NHE, or we don't have any realistic options for going it alone.

Your "why?" can only be, because waiting and collaborating, will save He1 significant cash. And also, that He1 must have a high level of confidence that the collaboration will be achieved. And in order to have that level of confidence, He1 must be being kept in the loop by Noble over the farm out process, otherwise they would not be doing their own due diligence here?

The latest Noble presentation states that they will be drilling next quarter, have secured the Rig and most importantly, have "FARM-OUT PARTNERS SHORTLISTED" (page 14).
So, it looks as if its now a case of Noble choosing the best farm out bid from the shortlisted candidates, rather than still having to wait for bids to arrive? If so, the speed at which Noble are moving, suggests that they will confirm winning farmout bid next week, which is the final step to being able to sign the Rig contract? And then, we know from the Noble CEO that the Rig contract is a standard one and pretty much ready to sign.
So farm out confirmation next week, and then Rig contract shortly thereafter, all means that He1 could be closer than at any stage in the last 2 years to finally signing a Rig contract, which might explain the tick up in the share price? All imo

Fair enough Skittish - as you say, let's hope we never have to find out. What a drama this Rig search has been though. We can only hope its finally coming to an end and we are now in the home straight.

Regrettably this BB has been taken over by a herd of trolls. The accounts regularly and routinely engaging with the main one, are in all likelihood the other trolls, including any regularly pretending to be its nemesis/opposers - thereby just continuing the toxic discourse. All imo

Skittish - that some rationale would then apply to any Rig contractor i.e. why would any Rig contractor be prepared to drill a single hole? But then we have been led to believe by DM that He1 did have at least 2 Rig contractors last year, who were EACH willing to drill a single hole for us. This message has also been consistently given to us under the stewardship of LB, who continues to tell us that they do have Rig options to go it alone. Furthermore, the single hole drilling was also fully costed with a full breakdown, when we did the £10 million placing last year (see the RNS). Those costings would have been based on actual Rig negotiations for a single hole.
Therefore, we have one of two possibilities here:
1) Management have consistently been misleading us and have also raised funds on the false premise that they have Rig options to go it alone.
2) Management have been truthful in saying that there are Rig options to drill a single hole at Tai, but whilst affordable, it is going to be VERY expensive, and so they prefer to collaborate if they can to avoid those extreme costs.
I believe we are in scenario 2.
If the collaboration option doesn't work, my concern would be the time it would then take for He1 to contract a Rig for going it alone and whether that would still be possible for Q3. I would also be concerned that He1 would then be negotiating with the Rig contractor from a position of near desperation/weakness. Hopefully, they have already talked through the costs with these other parties.
But I am hoping, wanting and expecting this collaboration to go ahead rather than the solo option, and believe we are getting closer to it happening. All imo

RJ - I would doubt that this farm out even needs any kind of approval from Tanzania. It is surely being structured in a way that doesn't trigger any role for the Tanzanian authorities. Otherwise, why would HE1 even take the risk, given that they are committed to Q3 drilling, and looking to execute the contract very shortly. And how could NHE even sign the Rig contract if they need regulatory approval for their farmout. I just don't see how several parties and their advisers could be blind sighted to such an obvious risk! Also, NHE would be screwed, because they would then have to go for another farm out, because they would then be drilling alone in 2024, and so would need more funds from the farm out than at present. So yes, the farmout might not happen to enable collaboration in Q3, but imo it won't be because of it awaiting regulatory approval.

Come on folks, let's get real here. How can it possibly be that retail investors are more aware of the farm out rules in Tanzania than the following:
1) NHE management.
2) HE1 management.
3) Their (legal) advisors.
4) Tanzanian authorities they have been engaging with over Q3 drilling.
5) Management teams of potential farm out partners.
6) Their (legal) advisors.
Between the above, how can it possibly be that they will each and all have overlooked something as fundamental as the possibility that any farm out process could take up to 12 months for approval? If Q3 drilling were to go south for this reason, it would be farcical, and imo would make the position of LB untenable, not to mention the CEO of NHE. It would be far worse than the MOU that Minchin signed up to.
Therefore, I can't see this being an issue. The only realistic danger is that NHE don't get farm out bids, but as discussed, their comms are suggesting they are very confident, although I do take the point that it could be because they are still trying to attract bids. And all said, even if our collaboration with NHE fails, we still remain fully funded to go it alone and remain in discussions with Rig providers to go it alone (query: why wouldn't we go it alone with Sofori?). All imo

The way Noble are acting right now with their regular comms, presentations and webinars about Q3 drilling, of which this event on 8 May is another example, makes me think that they must already have farm out bids, hence why they can be so confident like this? This also mirrors up with He1 saying they hope to move to contract execution swiftly - which only really makes sense if He1 are also in the loop about Noble's strong farmout situation.
Put differently, I don't think Noble would risk committing to an event on May 8, if there is any chance of not getting farmout funding agreed by then - as it would be pointless pitching in circumstances of failure?
For all we know, Noble might already have a preferred or acceptable farm out bid received, but need to let the official bidding deadline pass, or to see if they better offers. All imo

One of the key problems with ORCP's renewable energy projects and why I think the wider market is not convinced is the lack of any timeline and timeframe from Naheed. This makes it difficult to assess progress, and judge when key milestone announcements will occur, which is important for any investor to know. For example, if there was a timeline that said: 'DFS by Q2, funding by X, offtake by Y, construction by Z, production in year Q, etc, etc', I think it would give the projects more credibility. At the moment, there is no way of knowing when key milestones such as financing and offtake will be achieved. It's not simply a case of being patient and waiting for them to arrive, because knowing the likely timeframe will determine what makes a good entry point here for new investors, or adding/averaging down for existing ones. A timeline doesn't guarantee anything of course, but at least it gives you some kind of framework/guideline to use when deciding whether/when to invest. Say I invested today, and no rocket arrives before the next placing, I'm going to be down on my investment already. Or, if the rockets aren't going to arrive until next year at the earliest, then I might decide to wait until nearer that time to invest, rather than have funds stuck here and risk them being eroded by equity raises in the meantime, or miss out on other better near term investments elsewhere (opportunity cost).
Therefore, after this DFS is issued, I really do hope ORCP publishes a timeline and I think shareholders should insist on that. I really do think it will inspire more confidence with the wider market, and that can only be a good thing for ORCP and its existing shareholders. All imo

I think there are at least 4, and maybe even as many as 8 accounts being used here. I'm not going to name them - some are more obvious than others - and for fear of wrongly accusing a genuine poster. But some potential warning signs for me include:
- constantly posting (despite being told to stop).
- asking you to use filter if you don't like their posts.
- posting history focussed solely or heavily on ECR.
- responding to 'each other' and/or naming 'each other' in their posts.
- inviting responses from 'each other'.
- admonishing anyone who does protest.
In and amongst this, will wade in genuine posts/posters, who don't realise they are reading and responding to trolls, and get sucked in that way. It takes a while on this BB, before you start to realise this MO. I suspect that the MAJORITY of postings on this BB are from and between 'troll(s)'. All imo

I think the BB is being trolled (if that's the right terminology). It's likely the same person(s) using multiple accounts to continue the charade/pretence of having a genuine squabble or exchanging insults/banter with others. Notice how these posts/posters all regularly appear in tandem. Any sane and rational individuals would have long since moved on from the squabbling, but this continuation only makes sense on the basis that its contrived and trolling? All imo

I think by the time KAV next get drilling on the ground, circa 6 months might have elapsed between drilling campaigns. For a fully funded explorer, that is a very long time indeed, and especially given how much work they have done on each of their projects? I must confess that I thought KAV would have generated momentum this year, especially fully funded and with JV talk, but its gone the other way so far, and think they have obfuscated too much over strategy and been slow to get on the ground.

Good post Tygra, particularly where you say: "Once the main news drops (financing) binding deals can be signed and then we go from planning/exploring to constructing and inevitably producing" AND "As soon as the words 'binding' or 'agreed' appear in an RNS as opposed to 'potential', I would expect a large move north."
I agree that it does need some binding commitments and funding info, for the wider market to take these huge capex renewable energy projects seriously. I believe the GH feasibility study is due in the next two months, and that should give some capex information?

Does PJ have shares in any of the IPOs to date?

So now we are expected to believe that not only HE1, but also NHE are engaged in misleading comms? We don’t have long to wait for NHE farm out news - next week in fact, so let’s wait until then and see what happens. NHE have been talking things up and I believe they WILL confirm the farm out. That will give us lift off for the share price.
So less than a week possibly left to buy these in the 6s, which is why some not so subtle de ramps are surfacing. Meanwhile, you see £250k buys going through as happened on Monday. GLA

Agreed - and hopefully we are now only weeks away from bringing this near two year Rig saga to a successful conclusion.

Oh, and can I add, that I suspect a certain poster on here is using more than one account, and might even be arguing with themselves really. Sad, but then....