Member Info for Legalwolf

I know most of us are eagerly and patiently awaiting the Rig contract RNS. Some of us might also be waiting until then to enter/add here. I was curious to know whether NHE confirming a farmout will be seen as the trigger point, or whether folk will still want to wait a short while longer for the actual Rig RNS, before putting (more) money in?

My impression (and I could be wrong about this) is that the majority of us have given up on believing that MFC will deliver the goods, following the latest round of drilling. But I don't mind the fact that PJ might have ramped it up beforehand, as no one was complaining at the time, when the share price doubled on that ramping, and you want the CEOs to be good at lifting sentiment - to an extent.
PJ has left a hole in this BB though, because all too often it was impossible to separate POW and PJ, when trying to discuss POW's (under) performance. By that I mean, all too often, perceived negatives/gripes aired on here were batted away by the PJ acolytes, by reference to/lauding up PJ himself. I think his departure will mean that there is now more honest and balanced discussion about POW itself, without the virtues (or otherwise) of PJ getting in the way of that honest debate. I believe so anyway.

We only have to remember what happened when a ship got stuck in the Suez canal and blocked it for 6 days in 2021. It made international news and led to a major and rapid rescue operation. I really can't see the international community allowing a local war between a small army and a small faction, blocking such a vital trade route?
Moreover, with all of the "negative" issues you have been highlighting, one might wonder why you invested at 5.4p in the first place? Shouldn't your risk analysis expertise have led you to conclude that you should NOT invest here until, you were sure the risks you have been highlighting had been addressed? In fact, you can still sell up at a profit now and re-enter after risks (as you see them) have been addressed? And by the way, some might think that relying on a BB to assess investment risks, is a risk in itself? Also, it would be nice to hear why you thought this was such a great stock to invest in, despite carrying risks. That might then better enable others to believe that you are a well intentioned poster (as opposed to just focussing on the negatives).
Just saying.... and good luck in whatever you decide to do, and with your investment here.

6p does look gone now barring any bad news. I think 7p will be gone if/once NHE confirms it’s farmout funding partner, which news could arrive this week. I Suspect a lot of sidelined money will commit itself at this point as well.
We could finish the week in the 8s if an update lands from NHE?

I believe the immediate future here is going to be determined by two factors alone:
1) initial drilling results from Creswick. Timescale: 6 weeks?
2) how much of this ‘downtrend’ continues until then, or will we get a bottoming pattern instead?
AH did say that ECR is fully funded for current drilling programmes/near term. Therefore, I was rather hoping/expecting that there won’t be a raise until after Lolworth and Hurricane campaigns in the summer?
Are folk expecting a raise now and if so why?

As a long term investment, a lot of the market will wait for confirmation, and things like the prospect which remains long overdue (inexplicably?). Because of the history, there is still a risk, until confirmation, that this is just GCAT/RMs ramp story for as much of 2023 as possible. As a short term trade though, there is less care or concern over such fundamental ‘niceties’ I guess.

We closed in the 7s and at the high, with strong price action into the close. Decent volume today as well. All in all, a good week and can't wait to see what next week brings, as we get closer to farmout news (hopefully). Good weekend to all.

"It's very hard to know at such an early stage." Getting to DFS is NOT early stage. In fact, the next stages after DFS will be things like the funding and offtake. So if this is a credible project with credible prospects, surely Naheed will know how the funds are going to be raised. And if SHE still doesn't know when funding might realistically be achieved by the time of the DFS, then that's not confidence inspiring at all. Its unusual to come across investors not wanting to know what the likely timescales are for their investments. I mean, timelines get missed on AIM all the time, but that's not a reason for not wanting or having them. All imo

Must have been a flurry at the close - couldn't get a quote to buy and bid into the 7s!

Reality is that the next 40 mins could be the last chance to get shares in the very lower 7s, in anticipation of farmout update landing next week.
In answer to your question though, didn't NHE say the Rig is in Tunisia and the contract is ready to sign?

I would agree that a financial catalyst is needed. I remain very sceptical that it will ever actually arrive, based on the track record here so far, but I remain open to the possibility, and would invest if it ever lands. As I've said before, without a timeline, it is difficult to exercise patience, because you don't really know when there will be light at the end of this long down trending tunnel, but hopefully once the DFS is out on the GH project, Naheed might indicate some timelines, and Zak Mir might do a proper interview asking about timescales and catalysts, rather than just allowing Naheed to have a free ride and do a pitch. All imo

We should maybe wait for Rig confirmation before we make spud price projections, but one thing I will say is that if we get anywhere near mid 20s, then why would the share price just stop short of the ATH from the first spud? This time round our COS will surely be higher, because we have the positive results from the first drill to take into this second drill - how many times has DM said the first drill has de-risked the project?
Also, what happens if we get Helium shows again on the way to TD, would that not take us past ATH because this time, with a proper Rig, we will get to TD?

ECR entering a period of non-stop news flow, across a number of projects and with a rising POG. That should make for a good backdrop for a reversal of the share price from these levels?

Looks like we have non-stop drilling/news to look forward to then across 3 projects (CresWick, Lolworth, Hurricane) over the next 4 months or so?

If we close in and around 7p today, then that bodes well in the run up to NHE's farmout deadline next week. We can be reasonably confident that NHE will put out some form of comms next week. GLA

Yes, it very much does look we are ticking up on anticipation of farmout and Rig confirmation now being very close. Once that lands, I would imagine that there will be a LOT of side lined money/volume coming here, as this will be one of the biggest 'story stocks' on AIM for the next 4 months, and we will start to make big volume moves up.
I would be happy for drilling to take place in August, as opposed to earlier, as it gives more time for the story to be told and to unfold, and for the share price to trend up like it did in the run up to Tai 1 and absorb the profit taking. I've been very impressed with NHE's comms, and believe He1 will step up its own comms once they have the Rig confirmed. Between them, both companies will end up giving us lots of media/newsflow to sustain a trend into drilling.

D2B - I remember seeing it as two separate trades, rather than a bed n isa which you normally see reported with a minus (-) symbol in front of one the trades.
As for volume, I too looked for that on the charts and didn’t see it. Nor was it recorded on the LSE page under total bought and sold volume. It’s almost as if it was a ‘ghost’ trade.

Don't forget that Assay results will need to be reviewed by the external Ditau adviser as well, and then KAV will need to plan the drilling programme for Ditau based on his input. Therefore, it could be well into Q3 before drilling starts at Ditau. They could have executed a drilling programme at KSZ in that time. I'm afraid they have demonstrated a lack of confidence in the B1 conductors and it will be harder to credibly proclaim them in the future as "must drill" when your actions are screaming "reluctant to drill".
For me, if He1 confirm their Rig in the next few weeks, then its hard to argue against He1 being the better near term proposition from these two promising companies?

That is a decent return indeed. Who knows it might be more, if the IPO is a success from the get go. Maybe ORR can take some advice from its expert trader shareholders :-)
Who wants to step forward and put their trading credentials forward to Tim and Co?

That would make it interesting, but I think if we were seriously interested, then we would have approached NHE and not the other way round. I'm also not sure we would be asked to go into a competitive process with other bidders?