Member Info for Legalwolf

The June 2023 “quarter” is April, May & June i.e. Q2. It doesn’t mean Rig contract will be signed in June. If they meant June then they would just have said June or the “month” of June, not “quarter”. All imo

GH - the reason I asked was to try to understand why you are so bullish and positive during this long downtrend in the share price. Now, if you don't have any confidence that there will be share price reversing news before the next fund raise, then that tells its own story really, and makes your positivity and bullishness on this BB about ORCP all the more difficult to comprehend. But anyway, appreciate the honesty.
BH - Naheed has not returned any growth to your investment in all that time, in fact has lost you money (even if you describe it as a "paper loss"). Therefore, I can't see why you are still lauding her, and especially as Thar coal, the project that caused you to invest here, has now been replaced in the list of priorities by these green projects? Doesn't make sense to me, but each to their own and hope you recover the paper losses.

ID78 - JORC compliance is the reporting standard and needs to be done by a "competent person", who can be someone employed by the company. It is usual for a company to say whether its an independent person. In fact, no way they would not say that, as it gives that additional confidence if its all been done or verified externally. All imo

PFG - if that was the reason for the hold up, do you not think the GSMB, or the various other officials that CMET have raised this with, would have explained that to CMET already, rather than stop engaging and letting it get to this stage? Take the following from the RNS:

"... the GSMB has neither lifted the suspension of the IMLs nor provided an indication of when or on what basis it will do so. Management continues to engage with GSMB officials to seek to understand the department's reasoning; however, to date no explanation for the continued unjust suspension has been forthcoming."

"... reserving the Company's rights in relation to potential illegal activities and potential breaches of international treaty obligations."

The reference to "illegal activities" is intriguing, and does it suggest that CMET also are concerned about foul play, or at least illegality? All imo

When are you anticipating that ORCP will need to raise funds. Before or after your below expected trigger point/timescale?

Sorry, not wishing to be constantly 'glass half empty' here, but to what extent are any of the exploration results verified independently and externally, or are all the results (and resource estimates) coming solely from GCAT's own management and through its own lab? I'm asking genuinely, as I can't recall.

We can only speculate but that is entirely possible, and I am sure many of us have wondered the same - wasn't there a state owned mineral sands company on a land grab. And IF there is a hidden hand involved (and we have no evidence of that), it needn't be that of a SL company. It could be Chinese or Indian, who have lots of influence in SL. Also, how many companies will have seen the project, as part of the offtake/partnering process, for example? Or, and again no evidence of this, it could just be individuals, rather than a company as such.
But as previously stated, its hard to believe that its the ownership structure that has caused all this, save perhaps, if there was a concern about the previous regime at GSMB handing out such licences, and the new regime wanted to take a closer look at CMET's, but needed a reason for doing so? (But if so, why are they being slow to reinstate?)
Anyway, hopefully MF is in close contact with Titanium Sands. They are an ASX listed minerals sands company that had to go through something similar. They eventually won back their licence via the Sri Lankan courts, I recall! You can look the case up online. CMET should be able to garner support from western companies, as this potentially impacts them all and whether SL is a safe jurisdiction for them. If it can happen to CMET, why can't it happen to them? All imo and DYOR

"Agreed but just to add Ì think dfs then some more MOUs then financial close then binding contracts with contractors then binding contracts with end users. Probably a fair few stages in between these too."

What MOUs are you expecting? And at what stage in the above process would you expect the inflection point to arrive i.e. what do you think will be the trigger for the market to sit up and take notice?

Sol001 - with all due respect, it is really common place for AIM CEOs to talk up JV interest. More often than not, the so called interest from "multiple" parties doesn't come to anything. In fact, I'm less inclined to believe in JV talk when there are "multiple" parties, and only start to get interested, when there's confirmation of entering "advanced" talks with one or a select few parties. I listened to that interview, and it sounded very early stages to me. We need to wait to see if the CEO follows this up with a RNS confirming POW are entering JV negotiations/process with one of these interested parties in respect of Molopo. General talk is just that. All imo

BH - that doesn't make sense at all, unless you are trading.

Early stage is my reference to what others have said about them (inc Naheed) in terms of defending the lack of binding commitments. My own view is that once the DFS is out, its then reasonable to expect them to move from early stage to binding commitments.

At the moment, until or unless POW get a JV for Molopo, the bottom line reality is that Molopo isn't going to help any of our shareholdings in POW. That is irrespective of whether/what promise it does or doesn't hold based on these latest results, which we could debate if it was worth debating, but its not. Our CEO has pretty much confirmed that POW won't be doing any more exploration at Molopo. So we have to move on from it for now, and its only worth talking about Molopo if/once we get a JV. That's the reality whether you still believe in Molopo or not. All imo

I didn't hear anything from Naheed today to suggest that news will drop suddenly. She didn't suggest that there was anything imminent in relation to any of the projects/assets? The green projects are early stage and long term, who knows what is happening with Thar coal - its always been as clear as coal that project! Who also knows if/when ORCP will ever get a JV for its surviving gold project.
At the moment, this is more likely to continue its downtrend than reverse imo, because there is NO news that merits a reversal here. That's why we have been discussing the need for there to be a 'rocket RNS', and especially before the next fundraise is due, to lift the share price. No amount of regurgitating media stories from ****stan, as often happens on this bb to fill in the lack of comms, is going to change that reality either. It's all well and good being positive, but not much use if that positivity isn't grounded in this current reality and context. Sorry if that sounds overly harsh, but as today's presentation shows, folk are tiring of the talk, and the endless diet of non binding LOI/MOU that ORCP continues to serve up, but now want to see the action, in the form of binding and value inflecting developments. Let's see if they arrive after the DFS and before the next fundraise. All imo and DYOR

Yes, my bad for forgetting GCAT is not AIM. Easily forgiven for thinking it was, given the way events have unfolded here. More generally, very few investments are straightforward, and by the time they are straighforward, you've probably missed out on the gains. Therefore, a certain amount of risk needs to be taken, and especially with companies like GCAT. However, I took those risks last year, and whilst it worked out profitably in the end, that was more by accident/luck than anything else.
Anyway, let's see what happens here. I've set my stall out that I will wait for Prospectus, and will try to continue adhering to that position. But I can also understand others wanting to get in ahead of that and don't see the Prospectus as an important issue at all. We all have our different risk antennae and risk tolerance. After all, those who bought here during the recent lows, will have made a tidy profit already, and who can argue with that? I don't begrudge them doing so, and might live to regret not taking the risk myself. But some you win and some you lose. GLA

Skittish - mixed feelings reading your 'rant'. Firstly, I think the numbers that you have given about costs of drilling are likely to be way off. If we look at the placing RNS, it suggests that the cost to us of going it alone with the Exhalo Rig was in the region of $7 million (and even then, not all of this cost was on drilling, as it included circa $2 million for working capital and tax). Now this might have been a particularly cheap Rig deal, but I don't see why NHE will need to raise $10million -$15 million for their 3 hole(?) campaign. NB: I think they already have ~ $4 million in their coffers?

I do agree with you that, on the face of it, it seems very odd that He1 are fully funded to go it alone, yet have chosen to align themselves with NHE who are not fully funded, and especially given the Rigmarole it has already had. A collaboration seems like taking an unnecessary risk of more Rigmarole. I can only surmise the following reasons:
1) He1 are likely to make a significant enough saving from collaborating, without materially affecting their timeline for spud. If so, even saving £1 million would be worth it, not to mention the immeasurable first driller advantage that comes ONLY with this package. So it might not just be about the money.
2) Related to 1 above, He1 are being quoted an exorbitant amount for a single hole, by providers who know they are desperate and/or because its only one hole.
3) He1 don't have anyone willing to drill a single hole for them, leaving the collaboration as the only way forward. Again, it makes sense that they are waiting and taking the risk then.

Just listened to it. I thought it was very wishy washy, almost like listening to an over talkative candidate doing a job interview, rather than a CEO on top of their brief. What was also not very convincing to me was to hear her talk about people contacting her " today" to tell her how big and important the GH project was, and then she used the same line when talking about JV interest in the Northern Gold project. I thought the questions were totally understandable, given the situation that ORCP finds itself in, and not a single one was irrelevant or unjustified imo. Whatever some think on here, there needs to be accountability for the continuing and very poor share price performance under her reign, and lack of real idea as to when value inflection points will be returned to the underwater Shareholders here?
I do think that such events will only become more difficult for her the longer things carry on without any binding commitments on any of the green projects. Therefore, as we have discussed on this bb, once the DFS is done in Q2, she needs to deliver something binding on the development side of these green projects which she says are now the focus, or demonstrate convincingly that such progress is being made, or she will continue to be held accountable by disgruntled shareholders asking such questions. All imo and DYOR

Their farmout deadline has passed, and so NHE should now be in a position to assess and choose their preferred bid? I would imagine that parties who were very eager would have bid well before the deadline, meaning that some of the assessments will have taken place already. Therefore, we should be looking at an update from NHE any day now.
I would agree that confirmation of the farmout will take us past resistance, and I would expect us to be trading in and around the 8s, leading up to Rig RNS. A super critical 2-3 weeks coming up here for sure. All imo

The new POW CEO has confirmed that these types of projects need majors with deep pockets to drill the 10 000s of metres required. Sort of validates KAV's own approach in searching for a JV partner. It looks to me like the search isn't going all that well at the moment though, as we have not heard anything about it and Tamesis for some time now?

I'm afraid it sounded to me like the JV process is at a very early stage, and far too early to say whether any nascent interest will actually materialise in a JV offer, and if it does, whether it will take months or years. Over at KAVANGO for example, they have been looking for a JV partner for their KSZ project for well over a year now, even after having engaged advisers/consultants to find them a JV partner. They don't seem any closer to having found one as yet.
Therefore, as our new CEO has just confirmed in that interview that POW can't and won't be following up on Molopo by itself, I think we can safely conclude that further exploration at Molopo is 'dead for now'. This project won't be returning any growth or value to us for however long it will now take to find a JV partner. A partner with deep enough pockets to do the 10 000s of metres of drilling required, for which we will likely have to give away a very large slice and become the minority partner? And I wouldn't be surprised if the JV talk suddenly goes quite as well now (reflecting the fact that there isn't any firm interest as yet). All imo

ID78 - that was me who took a lot of stick on this BB during the Xmas period, for questioning whether the funding was sorted or not. I said it needed confirming, and most others on this BB vehemently disagreed. Thankfully (for me), I didn't listen to them and sold (at a profit), before RM then announced in January that OCIM had pulled out. Something in me just sensed that was coming. I couldn't be sure of course, but wasn't prepared to take a risk, as I had too large a holding here to take a chance.
On AIM, it's really important to question everything and everyone, repeatedly if you have to. Like Trek said a few weeks back, I don't know what to believe here anymore. Has RM miraculously picked up GCAT from the jaws of defeat/bankruptcy, or will this continue to be a situation where things are promised and indicated, but then don't materialise afterwards? I'm NOT taking the chance again, and will wait for confirmation, in the form of things like the Prospectus and Quarterly updates showing gold production/sales.
To do otherwise would be to totally ignore the lessons of last year, and repeat the mistakes of last year. Don't listen to the ramping on here, or indeed the de-ramping. Work out for yourself who you think are the posters with balance and acumen, and ignore the rest as noise. All imo