RE: Sunday Times7 Nov 2021 16:55
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/why-going-green-will-boost-shell-and-bp-shares-zgz0mptxn
The drive to decarbonise the world will push up the share price of oil and gas firms until at least the end of this decade, analysts claim.
As global leaders bash out plans to reduce reliance on fossil fuels at the Cop26 summit in Glasgow, energy firms are reaping the benefits of a global crunch in supply as well as pressure to stop the development of new coal, gas and oil fields.
Andrew Bailey, the governor of the Bank of England, said: “As we substitute out of more damaging hydrocarbons, coal obviously being a case in point, we will probably see increased demand for some other hydrocarbons [ie gas] during the transition.”
The supply of fossil fuels is set to peak in about 2025 thanks to international agreements, but demand is not expected to fall until at least the end of this decade, according to the investment bank Morgan Stanley. The company now expects the price of Brent crude to trade at $95 a barrel by January, up from a previous estimate of $77.50. Last week it was trading at about $83.
Martijn Rats, a commodities expert at Morgan Stanley, said: “For the world to decarbonise, both the demand and supply for fossil fuels need to decline, but getting these two things to sync is challenging. On current trends we expect oil and gas demand to peak by the end of this decade, but we expect the peak in supply by 2025. This could support commodity prices, at least until 2030. If you want to slow down fossil fuel production by the end of the decade, you have to take steps to do that now.”
Energy firms were severely affected by the pandemic as demand plunged, but supply constraints have been a boon for investors. The MSCI World Energy index, which represents the price of traditional energy firms, is up 48.3 per cent this year, while the Global Alternative Energy index, which tracks the performance of firms involved in renewable energy, is down 1.4 per cent. The FTSE is up about 10 per cent.
Georgina Cooper, a co-manager of the Dunedin Income Growth Investment Trust, which includes the French oil and gas firm Total Energies in its top ten holdings, said: “The cash flows and profits of large oil and gas firms are benefiting from higher prices as a recovery in demand for hydrocarbons meets markets that are still somewhat constrained by supply.”
BP’s share price is up more than 30 per cent this year, while Royal Dutch Shell has risen 25 per cent. They are both still down about 30 per cent from their pre-pandemic peaks, however. Glencore, the world’s largest exporter of thermal coal, is up more than 40 per cent this year, while Whitehaven Coalthe Australian miner, has risen 48 per cent.
Force firms to change
Instead of selling their stakes in traditional energy firms, investors seeking a greener bet are being encouraged to participate at annual meetings and vote to sway board decisions. Those invested in publicly listed firms such as BP and Shell c