BNP note20 May 2021 10:04
Outlook unchanged and business performing well
SDX’s summary 1Q results demonstrate the business is performing as anticipated, with no changes to guidance. 1Q production averaged ~5.9mboe/d, marginally above our 5.8mboe/d forecast for 2021 (which is in-line with guidance). 1Q operating cash-flow of US$6.1m was just over half the US$11.6m we forecast for H1 2021.
Drilling underway in Morocco; Egypt program expected to commence in 2Q 2021
Drilling is key to the investment thesis, targeting resource which can be monetised at low cost through existing infrastructure. The initial 3-well Morocco program got underway in late April (previously announced), and subject to receipt of final approvals for the licence extension, the Egyptian program is anticipated to commence in late June 2021. We include 1.0p/sh for the Morocco program on a risked basis in our Discovered Resource NAV, with a further 0.8p/sh unrisked upside potential. We see more material potential from the 2 Egyptian wells, with just 0.7p/sh included in our Discovered Resource NAV and a further 11.3p/sh un-risked upside. The 2nd of the 2 Egyptian wells (Hanut) accounts for the bulk (10.7p/sh) of this potential. Additional Morocco drilling is planned in H2 and 2 Egyptian follow-on wells are planned in 2022/23.
LMS area to be written down; modest impact, offset by Morocco gas price strength
Analysis of cores taken from the LMS-2 exploration well (delayed by COVID), indicates the reservoir has low permeability. As a result there will be no further investment in the licence and we remove it from our risked NAV (0.9p/sh impact, US$10.2m non-cash impairment). The NAV impact is offset by Moroccan gas price strength, and we revise up our prior US$10.8/mscf assumption to US$11.25/mscf, in-line with realised prices in H2 2020/1Q 2021.
Valuation range unchanged
Our valuation range remains 21-41p/sh, defined by our Discovered Resource NAV and RENAV. The shares offer 21% upside to our 20.6p/sh Discovered Resource NAV, and c.140% upside to our 41.5p/sh RENAV