Member Info for legache

They should do far better than balance the books; this should be spaffing off FCF.

I'm not sure you draw any parallels with Ukraine. For a start, there's no way the west are putting boots on the ground in Iran!

Trump has got his man, and the nuclear programme will be "re obliterated". He said he sorted it last year, obviously not!

Obviously, in many ways, a slightly extended conflict is welcome from an oil price POV (if not a humanitarian POV - killing kids in schools is not on), but i just don't see it.

Hormuz, Roxi.

Iran a a paper tiger, Trump has no appetite for a sustained conflict. It'll be over soon.

Cannot see the straits being closed but depends on how trump will take this. My guess he backs down sooner rather later and will say job is done will the mullahs still in power. Same old trump.

Exactly. Absolutely agree. But let's not do anything silly on the capex side for a while. That the gospel I keep preaching!

Whatever the impact of the rainy season, it wouldn't halve the guidance!

Cup half full!

Roxi - i would expect them to guide much lower capex / opex this year. I expect production will decrease slight - maybe 18-20k, however, the delta will make a lot of cash...

Charlie, Even with the low oil prices we've had over the last year or two, plus Skua and Montera disasters, they still made a profit. They've taken steps to improve recovery and Akantara should pay many years hence. I'm optimistic - as i am about oil. This is a cash machine if we don't do anything silly.

Clearly, I am not saying let's never do another deal, but carrying all this debt hurts our valuation. If we do a deal to add 24k on then unless the terms of fiannce are super attractive, we're just going to get hammered in the market. I like the conservative approach, its a breath of fresh air. Look at Akantara, how much has that added to the share price? I think we're in a worse position now than when FID was taken in share price terms (yes, i know there's other stuff going on). I just don't want anymore placings or finance deals that get us trapped in this never-ending story abut paying down debt.

I take excatly the opposite view. I have yet to see a profit o my investemnt and the core reason has been too much debt and risk whihc IMO the market hates. Lets get some cash on our balance sheet before being profligate. I makes the most sense, i cannot spend another decade in the red.

I kind of agree the hedging has been a little too defensive, but thats easy to say on the eve of a war in the Middle East

The purpose of the hedging should be to provide a platform. To ensure no further dilution is needed. To nsure stability. I would say it has acheived it aims

This should be news to no one!

Taken a first tranche at 4.8.

I agree, fully. But didn't you learn how to write using sentences and paragraphs?

Selling Akantara - not sure they'd sell just that asset. I'd imagine they'd want to sell the entire business.

A fundraiser at 23p... Don't make me laugh!

89 less the recent uplift of 23, so net debt is 66 less a bit for 2 months production...

There's nothing not to like there. Production slightly towards the lower end of guidance, and of course realised prices could be higher, but all in, happy.

Josef Schachter says what i've been saying for about a year... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=822a0dD7iSg

I'm like a broken record on this Tyrus thing. 1. If they were going to do it 2. Owning individual O&G firms is not their game. I cannot see any examples where they have taken businesses private.