RE: 42% hedged to sep 267 Mar 2026 09:10
"the group mitigates its exposure to oil price volatility through hedging, and in june 2025 entered into additional hedges covering 1.8 million barrels of oil production over the 12 months ending 30 september 2026, at an average brent price of us$69.92/bbl."
basically, they've hedged about half at 70 bucks.
assuming 20 dollars upside on 50% of production... 3.5mbarrels (guessing production remains roughly stable at 20k)
a crude estimate would be 70 million additional upside.
however, these hedges expire this year and will be negotiated. if they do so in this higher environment, that will increase the forward revenue estimates.
on top of this not all is oil... gas prices have increased by more...
so yes, a significant amount is hedged, but getting nrew brent swaps at toward 80 bucks, which seems entirely possible, could see a net 100m uplift in revenue in the period sep onwards.
obviously, this is all *** packet stuff - but it does underly the downside protection this war has created for us. i think the market was very wary of the downside, and therefore, even if the upside is not as good as some other o&g businesses, i think this will make a large move next week.
have a lovely saturday, chaps.