Member Info for leew

Let’s look forward to the confirmation from COPL management then that the GGS working as expected has migrated to increased production and a clear plan on injection / output over the next 3-6 months with a clear strategy demonstrating why that is the correct chosen route for COPL as a business.

The reason there is noise is because the company have not to date filled that void, they have said this year for the update so I am hoping if there is the necessary detail it will change COPL going forward. If the forward looking prediction is low or slow, subjective i know, then I want to know why as we have spent 4.5m to make a difference.

Let me answer point 1 for you.

Having had some direct involvement with some investment/funding/JV item in the past it took about 15 months to conclude and the companies involved where tier 1 UK investment entities and they were looking to invest in a small start up. They could have purchased it all via pocket change but did not as that is not how a JV/Investment happens.

Go and tell any CEO of an organisation that you purchased something because it was just chump change and the relevant DD was not needed and see how that pans out!!! Also someone selling something might attribute a value to it that means it’s not chump change regards of what a skewed markets suggests.

On the second point you are talking about going backwards, which was all in the past and the next announcement will show us if that is history or still some issues to resolve.

Antha, so to confirm you think a 3rd party (or parties) signed a LOI with COPL to support a carrot dangling exercise with COPL to help keep PI’s invested in COPl.

Having the opinion that the JV won’t conclude is a valid opinion and until it’s done could actually be prove to be correct, but all the conspiracy noise around it is comical.

Lol, yes that can only be what it means.

I mean there was no way it meant that the information in the latest RNA is the latest, which said they will update on production plans within 2023.

The polar opposite radical assumption to yours is they are about to do a JV and will do the Q and A after that when there is lots to talk about, which is equally a huge guess/assumption like yours imo.

They are not going to do a Q and A if they only thing to say is what they have communicated to everyone as already planning to present to us this year.

Now having said all the above the company communication is poor, should be better, and even without new information I feel a Q and A would be useful so hearing they will not be now is not wonderful and my clear frustration is they spent 4.5m on a new GGS and all I know officially is its installed and working. After 4.5m of investor money i want more detail on their plans to ramp it up and stabilise it even if they are doing it slower than some want / suggest.

Steve, based on when they started injection, upto that mid Nov date I doubt much was seen as I guess that time was needed to build up the base pressure. However between now and then impact should be seen, which is why I was keen to see an RNA with a simple update to say pressure built to x amount and production is at Y, with pressure slowely being built up

I agree on what could happen with production and I would be delighted to be wrong but I suspect they will be much more controlled when upping the pressures and injections rate this time round so that they don’t find the new weak point as quickly as they found it last time, when someone seemed to just turn the taps fully open and then was shocked when the old GGS failed due to pressures.

Also if it was me and I was looking at funding and a JV I would be looking to get in/around the break even point and hold it there to let the production really settle at the point that shows value to people looking at COPL for a few months and then maybe do smaller incremental steps from there upwards and maybe even move the production slightly with the POO to really understand the field and demonstrate they can directly control production purely based on injection rates and other items they may have at their disposal.

Hopefully I am wrong of course and they open the taps up and it has a dramatic effect by year end, but even if they outlined a detailed plan on doing smaller incremental steps up and explained why in detail and provided sound reasoning for it then that would still be a good update from my view.

If anyone is shorting a share like COPL at this stage whilst not being able to control the price themselves or as a collective they would mad as downside is very limited vs upside potential.

BH and strategic investors will have an investment strategy for buying and selling to meet their requirements and would be unlikely to deviate from that unless significant new information on the investment became known. If you invest millions you are not sitting around waiting for NOV production figures to make a decision!

Typically they will be start of Jan, although very occasionally they are in the month after, I.e. later this month.

Eazy, yes I know what the correlation is historically, what I want to know is how is that correlation behaving yesterday, today, and tomorrow not what it did with the old GGS system.

Yes it is obvious as pressure increases, production should increase, it’s physics. For COPl to provide some good sentiment on how the system is behaving recently I feel is simple so just surprised no one seems to want to put this in an RNA as I would expect to see them improvements taking affect by end of NOV as we are at the 6 week mark, but maybe in their defence waiting till 8 weeks is more prudent given more data will be available.

Yes the old graphes are available but they never happened so I want something new that is relatable to the real world situation they are facing now.

Yes it lags by weeks, yes as pressure goes up, yes we have a new GGS to get over all the old issues seen with high pressure, but no we don’t have confirmed evidence or even a suggestion by the company that they are now on track. I would expect they should be seeing some positive signs now and as such an RNS to help spell the next 2-3 months of effort and expectation would be great. Yes they said we would get one by year end but I was hoping that NOV production would give them a warm feeling and as such release a state of the production up date.

Well honestly I am a little disappointed that we don’t have an RNS giving an indication on the GGS and its impact on production. They happily spent the money on it and we are still speculating it’s having a position impact, let’s see if they can draft something this week. A simple chart showing us how they get to break even would be good initially and can’t be that hard to compile.

Go back and look at the typical price between mid NOV and upto sometime in JAN and you might actually say the price action in that period is typically a decent opportunity, but if you can’t remember them, or be bothered to look then that’s on you.

Obviously we had tried at different times, as you well know it changes like the wind on COPL lol

Finwittrader, incorrect it was taking more that 1m @1.98p today

Yes correct, I did not make the statement based on having 100k as that would be pointless. There will be many people with more than me but equally many with less as I heavily averaged down.

That we can agree on Seahawk, today they will take my entire holding off me in 1 go at 1.98p so there is demand to purchase at that level that’s for sure.

Let’s just keep above 2p for a start, at 3p, 4p, 5p the market cap is a joke verses the assets, reserves, resources so if this is another time that the BH have stopped then like last time the ping up will be relatively quick with the added advantage production or JV news could further ignite.

Let’s see where it ends today.

I would be shocked if they gave away controlling interest at this stage.

I would expect JV partner funding initially on a smaller portion (20-30%) but with a clear path for the JV partner to be able to take a controlling interest at the right moment and then a path to a full take over.

Any JV deal is a game changer as currently there is no real value in the SP attributed to the find so hypothetically if the JV paid £100m for 50% it values the find instantly at a min of £200m and then the money is used to extract oil and develop resources / reserves so the value of the find could increase quickly.

Why are people able to suggest a SP after a JV, would love to see how people calculate 5-10p on a JV.

I think the bonds issue is blinding a few on what the SP could actually be and the snap back speed on company making news. The disconnect could be huge and I would suggest that if we can get over 2000bopd and a reasonable JV for developing the discovery this genuinely could be a generational share.

Yes the bonds have been dreadful, yes the comms from COPL are dreadful but the flip side is the next year in COPL could be life changing.

Could also fail to increase production, fail to get a JV and raise some more bonds but its risk reward is compelling.