Member Info for leesteuk

Looks like vat refund is nailed on and just a matter of waiting for the pen pushers to get their act together,

Should give a 15/20 % rise and a good exit point for peed off investors who arnt too deep underwater,

May even act as a catalyst and go higher !

Ddraig

Did I mention a timeline for the process 🤔 no,

I said after 3 months + if the data in the data room was bad then there would be no one left looking to farm in.

I do think there will be a deal done re a farm out/in , over 3 months since Spencer took the helm and made his speech and i imagine in that time a fair bit of old and new data has been seen by potential partners, Lets face it, most would have walked by now if the data was totally rubbish

IMO no company is going to keep their reps there if the data is rubbish ! Costs alot of money for a company to have their reps there analysing data etc,

So yes imo a deal will be done but we dont know who with (big major/small independant etc) so we could get a good 50% return on our investments or we could hit the jackpot and get 100/200/300 % time will tell !

No Cbarron i dont know for sure im just using the logic that by now if all data was rubbish it would be game over by this time !

Thanks Scott

Maybe a few palms need greasing 😄 fingers crossed anyhow.

Scott

And how much of a drop if it doesn't pass go ?

If he wants to take it private he will want it as cheap as he can get it ! If he made an offer 40% over the sp no one could veto it as it would need 75% votes to do that, with his % and just one of his mates like Ashley that makes it impossible for anyone else to veto it,

WHy do you think hes not bothered about the sp ? lower it is then the cheaper he will get it .

Moulding hates the LSE, He wished he never went public with THG, He wants to take it private,

Ok we get the VAT rebate the SP goes up 20/25% so SP moves to around 39/40p Moulding The VAT reduced debt making THG an even more attractive buy out target,

Moulding would have the last word on any offers made for THG in a buyout because of the % he holds and his % combined with one of his shareholding partners such as Mike Ashley would be able to veto any buy out (together) (unless a very good offer that they couldnt refuse)

Moulding would rather take it private, so he makes an offer and again his offer cannot be refused for the same reason above, so if he decides to pay 40% premium that would take the SP to about 55p a share buy out offer,

Other scenario, no VAT rebate, sp drops more meaning he needs to raise less money to take private so again his offer 40% above what the "dropped" sp is,

so say no vat and sp dropped 10% so about 30p plus his offer price of 40% that would be a buy out at 41/42p a share!

As i understand, to veto an offer 75% of holders need to object, with Mouldings % and say Ashley % that means objectors could not reach the required 75% to veto his (mouldings ) offer

I think this will happen soon after the VAT result !

Sooo He decides to take it private himself,

Gman93

Good point and I think your spot on there, playing mind games with the potential farm partners!

The Legal Test of "Precise" InformationUnder the UK Market Abuse Regulation (UK MAR), simply knowing that negotiations are going well or that a potential partner looks highly interested is classified as corporate oversight, not "Inside Information."For information to become legally restrictive Inside Information, it must pass the "Precise" test. This means it must relate to a set of circumstances that has already occurred or is reasonably expected to happen, and it must be specific enough to allow a definitive conclusion on how it will impact the share price.

Bricks

Yes but it is contingent not proven,

They know its there but they cannot say if it can be gotten out,

Hence why we are not selling any (oil) and why we need a farm partner, ( to see if they are able to do what we cannot) get oil out of the ground.

Older wiser

That's "Contingent Resources" rather than "Proven Reserves!

Cbaron

Nice to know your pleased by my posts 🤣

Tony

It depends when we get told there is a shortlist then advanced negotiation etc,, If that is not until the end of summer it could take a good few months after that to conclude everything, Im hoping npthing goes past Xmas time anyways as we will run out of cash by then,

I do think though that the recent pressure test was not as good as panr expected, Only because if they were then i think we would be at the shortlist/negotiations stage by now,

Also in the last RNS regarding the farm out Panr said there were different size companies in the data room whereas an earlier RNS said just majors so maybe lower expectations from Panr there, just imo.

time will tell but hopefully not too much time !

Barron

You can please some of the people some of the time but you can't please all of the people all of the time 🤣🤣🤣🤣

Hi Dickie

Im good thanks and hope you are also,

Firstly i hope we do get a deal signed in the end, thats the main thing, By now im sure the pressure testing has finished and they will have the results of the tests,

I cant help thinking the results were not as cut and dried as we hope for though, if they were im sure negotiations would be more advanced by now,

i think that suggests they are still in an evaluation-heavy phase rather than final negotiations, By now i would have expected "shortlisted parties" or "advanced discussions RNS" so those are the words we need to hear, after that it will go onto the stage you just wrote,

The process remains alive, but it has not yet reached the stage where management can credibly imply a near-term deal,

I hope it wont take as long as you say though because i dont think we have the cash to last past Xmas this year !

Like i said before, If all were rosy then we would be further than we are now, (by that i mean A shortlist, advanced negotiations,or a deal announcement soon RNS in that order,

Although i do feel we will get a deal in the end, I dont feel as confident that it will be the deal we are all hoping for simply because it seems there will be more risk involved for whomever the farm partner will be,

It should still easily double up though but for more sp rises maybe we will have to wait untill some oil is actually flowed for value to be realised,

All imo

Hi Dickie

Good analysis there matey 👍 there are definitely issues with the panr fields that need sorting out if they can be,

I think they can be but at what cost to panr negotiating levarage,

If there were no issues a deal would be getting done now

In other words I think a deal will be done but maybe won't initially spike the sp as much as we would like, then upwards from there on successful flow tests.

GL

Nothing to take the sp back up and imo there wont be for a good few months ! I said after last rns the sp will drift down and it has and its 9s next imo

This is not me being negative this is my view, volume is rubbish, 10% club are deserting as they know theres no quick buck here to be had for a few months.

GLA

Correction buy more not back in.

Oilbarron

The end of June is not the end of summe,

I will buy back in at 9p or under,

If we don't end up with a major as a partner then the initial sp rise on news won't be as good as it would be with a major as a partner.

Gla

For a stock that trades on "anticipation" the rns is a bit of a killer as its saying there is no deal close and there will be no rapid outcome,

So I can see us drifting into 9s again or even 8s over the next few months,

No deal close, no prefered partner close etc etc

Also not all Majors but various sizes interested which kind of lowers expectation of "A major is gonna do a deal with us"

I just don't see what's gonna keep the sp up over the summer,

Feels like we're back at square 1 re farm out as we have not progressed at all.

But saying don't expect anything to happen till the end of summer just isn't going to help the sp over that period imo

Gla

WanderingBull

Not much gonna happen here till we have some kind of update,

Even if we went to 11.5/12p the 10% club would cash in and were back to 10/10.50 p again