Member Info for leehardcastle

I predict 0.8 to 0.9p before the news, 2p with a decent deal, watch this space

Well looks like a few others are taking a few more, over 4 buys to 1 sell over the last weeks trading, smart move because we haven’t long to hear the news on refinancing, it’s coming, watch the panic to get hold of shares when it does.

Well said Adam, the previous lack of any spare cash has obviously put maintenance on the back burner, Q1 2019 had addressed some of that maintenance, with money budgeted to carry that on through Q2, this maintenance should increase reliability and give us greater production as we continue, DB having negotiated the standstill for the last 3 months, has allowed us time and money to get theses issues sorted, which in turn will show both MTL and the banks how much gold is going to be reliably pulled from our resource, I’m estimating this quarter may lose another weeks shutdown to continue repairs started in Q1 and make the adjustments required to improve the processing plants efficiency, my point about the $100 dollar gold price improvement is it balances out what we lose in production days, we gain in the value of the gold sales, it’s extremely welcome at this point in time.

Gold happy at $1350 is a major helping hand, when you look at last years average gold price being $100 dollars lower, it equates to nearly $5 million extra income without improving performance based on last years 48k ounces, if we get to 18k ounces gold sales this quarter it $1.8 million extra income alone, over $7 million for the year extra income, that covers interest on the loans, it takes a lot of pressure off the company, imagine gold hitting $1500 dollars, it would be like a jumbo jet entering the jet stream, happy days

Well AAZ had finance woes and the share price hit a low of 4p, the re-financing lifted the price massively, and they slowly edged up to around 40p a share before the debt was repaid 3 years later, the first dividend payment took them to 80p and the second dividend with increased proven assets has got them over the 100p, now that’s taken nearly 4 years, cracking success and very similar in terms of running costs to our mine, although it’s actually smaller, so it depends on your timescale expectations, I’m happy to wait 4 years, others won’t wait 4 months, but I see buying property as a slow burner and have made a mint on a handful of houses with patience, 7 Years from 2000 to 2007 saw one house 3 fold in value, so I’m used to investments taking time, the day traders are long gone in MTL, we have many large stakes in a fairly small number of investors, the majority who have the patience and belief, we have all the ingredients to succeed, no guarantees, but more likely than not IMHO, the share price is still at a failure imminent price, so if/when we don’t, jam will rapidly come in this year, we had a 5p share price when we hadn’t turned a nugget, with the same number of shares as today, debts of $81 million and the future looked healthy, so explain how with just 25% more debt, making gold profits and our share price is down nearly 90%, it well oversold, hence why I’m holding 700% more shares since Xmas 2018 and very happy to be in this position, the cream will float to the top in time.

Those waiting to buy a few million at a lower price will struggle, I can’t get an offer price for any amount over a million, best quote was 0.8p for 1 million, imagine the rush when a new finance deal is announced, smart money should be drip buying before the end of the month, the refinance will come, that’s why we have had the standstill, if the banks wanted to own us they would have already, patience is going to pay off, I have no doubts, 100%

But making payments is certainly possible, say $5 million plus interest this quarter, increasing by an extra $0.5 million every quarter for the 8 quarters after is $63 million total in just over 2 years, the mine only has to increase production efficiency by 3% a quarter to achieve it.
The banks $63 million senior loan paid off and the major shareholders can start receiving there re-payments, pressure is off and 5 to 6 years mine life remains.
Making a profit is the answer to any business, I think we have found ours.

Jgallagh...I estimate we are making $1.5 to $2 million a month profit after costs at the moment, how did you get confirmation the cash positive position? price sensitive data is hard to get hold of, do tell please.

Banks are ruthless, if you fell behind on your mortgage payments for just 6 months, they would repossess, back in 1990 it happened to my girlfriend, she fell behind just 3 months and they took possession, sold it at a loss and chased her for the loss, so I really don’t think this patience is because they are fair and friendly, they are patient because they can repossess but can’t get the licence renewed for the next buyer, so without a licence, they couldn’t sell it, the power goes back into the governments hands, I’m sure the government would love that, a gold mine ready to go, and worth peanuts to the bank, it’s the ace up the sleeve for MTL, hence why they played hardball with the banks and refused to raise $20 million capital 3 months ago, which would have devastated all invested, Im hoping the banks set new payments to extend the current agreement, with a low interest rate, I can’t see them taking a hair cut on the debt.
MTL had $81 million debts back in Dec 2016, so current debts of $103 million meant we lost an average of $2.75 million per quarter over 8 quarters, so the quarter ending March 2019 was very significantly, we actually made $3 million profit, that’s a $5.75 million improvement, in 1 quarter of Darren Bowdens hands, and only 11 weeks production, so what’s the figures this quarter, they stand to reason be better still, the banks will be kept up to date and 3 months production will have taken place by the end of this latest standstill, new terns are coming.
Like I said, what’s not to like?

XTR..ever the optimist for your big top up at 40% discount to the last buying today, based on no bad news between now and 3 weeks time, the price is more likely to rise to 0.9p than it is to fall to 0.5p, 6 months with Darren Bowdens leadership and the experts put in place will be starting to show, the banks will have a much clearer picture than they had 3 months ago, refinance details WILL come, the banks have absolutely no other choice, we can thank the Philippine government for that, a bank owned mine with no licence is worth next to nothing to them, so they will refinance and let the journey continue, in time all will get their investment and loans back, profits will flow, the 8 years of gold assets are proven and waiting for processing, the plant is fine tuning, the major shareholders have held strong and resisted share dilution, the new management team are proven experts with successful track records, the new Nomad, gold prices rising, so hold tight because this year is the turning point, 15 years work will not turn to dust, the billionaire investors won’t allow it when they can see the hard work has been done, running the mine should be the rewarding part, and we are running at a profit as we speak, what’s not to like.

Thats right Jim, Q2 numbers include April, May, June, in line with the end of this recent standstill, MTL should have enough details to show the banks, we get to read them around 3 to 4 weeks later.

Darren Bowden hasn’t put a foot wrong since joining the company, by the end of this Standstill he will have had 6 months to truly understand the mines functions, lifespan and the best way to proceed, the support of the major shareholders is not in question, they kept us afloat last year, when we had no answers to the poor gold recovery, so it’s obvious they will support us now we have made decent progress, the banks will be waiting to see what DB can offer in terms of payments going forward, DB will have put it to them to lay off, give us some breathing space, let us accumulate some running capital so as to service the plant and make the changes, only then can we move forward, the banks have seen sense and are obliging, the recovery will come, it’s a matter of patience and good leadership.
We have enough gold in this mine to see us to a debt free position, and enough resources to prove up to make large profits over the next decade.
I’m holding for those days, 10 bagging is very possible, but patience is required, hope those on board have enough to join me.

The Standstill extension will come tomorrow, that’s why they posted the RNS today to let us know they are applying for an extension, the news today was everything we knew already, I think some don’t realise that when our share price was 5p we were making tiny amounts of gold from an untested processing plant, when we were 3.5p a share we were losing $5 million a quarter and hoping for a turn around, now we are 0.6p a share and yet made a profit of $3 million last quarter, those who can’t see how cheap that make us are blind, patience is required for DB to work through the bugs, ridiculously cheap shares if you read between the lines.

We knew the results from last year were poor, hence why we have a new team, the fact we have made $3 million in Q1 instead of losing $4.5 million per quarter last year is proof we have turned around, it’s just a matter of how long it’s to take to get the figures up to design, I feel he’s letting the lenders know the journey is going to be hard work and that they need to do their bit to help as well as us getting things right, looks like the standstill will continue for a while, the banks have to support us, they really have no choice if they want to be repaid, we are 2 months into Q2 so we haven’t too long to see how much more improvement has been made along the way, patience boys and girls

A watched kettle still boils, it just feels like it’s taking longer Roy, we will get news this coming week, DB is certain to update us one way or the other, either an extension to the standstill, new bank payment terms, or even a new finance provider, possible? patience as ever, it’s a gold mine investment, it’s nature is slow and steady, gold is being pulled out and profits are being made regardless of our needy reassurances, the scale of our profits will increase with every quarter, we are in skilled hands, time is our friend, not our enemy, exciting week ahead.

Double 0.8p is only 1.6p, I’m not giving up a single share before I see 5p and I don’t care how long it takes, pension money for me, 5p is realistic in the next 1 to 2 years as long as production keeps increasing, I haven’t enough shares to give up on small rises, so I will hold and wait, patience is getting easier as I have held now for 29 months so another 12 to 24 is not that long, It’s not a sprint, it’s a marathon, all mining shares are, MTL is so cheap you can lose sight of its real value, of which will come in good time, I’m confident on that.

The finance deal offered by the banks showed they were continuing with MTL, but they wanted to de-risk a little by having us pay off neatly $35 million in one go, which was plain impossible, so MTL expressed early that we were highly unlikely to facilitate their proposal, which is why we have the standstill for the last 2 months, I think it’s reasonable to believe that DB has asked for a period of grace to prove that we can make profits, which we already showed to a small extent during the last quarter, the profits should increase month on month and those figures give both MTL and the banks numbers to work from, payments that can be fulfilled over the next 2 years, it’s pointless setting ones we can’t meet, so I’m confident 5 months under DB leadership will be enough to set those payments in writing, as the standstill was agreed for 2 months then we will have to agree in the next week, it’s a paper agreement, of which I believe we will have the details of very soon, DB has proven extremely punctual to date, so I can’t see that changing, news is coming.

Those who bought under 0.5p are relatively few, most here are in at much higher levels, including the major investors, but they have held fast and supported the share with added funds as we required them, so we are in safe hands, they will be as happy as we are to have seen our first profitable quarter, it’s wasn’t luck, it’s quality management (Darren Bowden and his team) who made it in only 11 weeks production, as we lost 2 weeks to infrastructure repairs, so I’m certain each quarter will see profits rise as he irons out the remaining bugs.
Finance terms will be released soon, a re-rate is coming as long as they are reasonably fair, of which I’m sure DB will have negotiated, GLA

Hi Ivor, I think our low of 0.4p that some have managed to obtain can achieve a share price of 8p or 20 bag if we achieve a debt free mine with 100k ounce per annum production and a dividend, it’s a 20 bagger for those patient enough who wait for that possibility, I’m pleased you agree on the potential, that’s based on current gold prices, which could raise over the next few years to aid our recovery and even higher highs.

There are a few on the chat board of AAZ wondering whether to hold or sell since hitting the 100p a share target, those most tempted are them who have held since the 4 to 5p mark, they feel like it’s time to capitalise their investment, 20 plus bagging in 3 years is after all an exceptional return, but they also feel it’s still got a load of legs to go, 150p and a healthy dividend for those brave enough to hold on for longer, to think they had finance woes 3 years ago, on the brink of going bust, but they didn’t, because a savvy backer saw its literally a gold mine, a golden cash generating machine, he got his investment back and its generating tens of millions profit every year with 25% going back to loyal share
holders, to think it’s an 80k ounce per annum mine, actually smaller than MTLs, we are so similar in many ways, both trading on AIM, both similar sized, similar gold resources, similar low operating costs in a stable low cost environment, both well backed by rich investors, both facing near financial ruin, but, they didn’t go bust, and neither have we, the corner has been turned and yet we haven’t seen a reward as yet, but it’s coming, one last point, if you look at AAZs share price swings from 4p, you will see huge rises with large retraces, but always heading higher with each push, the patient who took the highest risks at 4p did nothing and 25 bagged, those trading in and out? Who knows, but I doubt very much any trader has ever seen 25 bagging in their lives, please post me if I’m wrong, but investing long and staying put for the ride seems to be the savvy long term way to play it. GLA