Member Info for leehardcastle

I sold out at 80p from 40p to buy more of MTL, but I’m not worried, could have doubled my money again, but I’m positive this will 10 fold with patience, we can replicate AAZ success, they were in our position 3.5 years back, finance insecurity, got there’s secured and the rest is history, we will get our day, there’s a gold rush and we just haven’t caught up yet, but we will.

Hi Roy, My belief with MTLs success is unfazed, I see the share price collapse from the 5p a few years back when I initially invested, as the opportunity of a lifetime, the very early investors had suffered the most pain where our shareprice had been as high as the 40p mark, I imagine they have averaged down with the years as they passed, MTL hadn’t put a foot wrong in the first 12 years, the journey has been arduous to go from explorer to producer, but here we are today, producing, and yet our shareprice has collapsed, what are the reasons, we’ll my take is simply this, we stumbled off the production blocks, getting the mine to produce the 100k ounce nameplate design is taking years instead of months, but this business is a marathon and not a sprint, in the life of this mine, the 2 lost years are not the end of the world, just a stumble, I believe Darren Bowden has the production skills our previous CEO didn’t have, I’m not knocking the previous CEO as he had managed the project from nothing to production, no easy job, but DB is fresh and eager to prove his salt, to continue his already impressive mining success, so we are are in great hands, the gold value has risen enough to adjust the balance back into our favour, and positive cash flows will improve quarter by quarter.
I personally have been in profit with this share, my average is 0.8p and I have seen 1.6p and yet wasn’t interested in selling because I’m looking at the bigger picture, I’m 100% confident we will see 5p in the next year or two, and 10p with in 5 years, that’s not fantasy figures, that’s market caps based on a debt free mid sized gold mine with decades of gold rich material to lay hand on, the Philippines being a peaceful part of the world is also a huge benefit.
I hope the many larger investors here will follow my long term view, every share purchased at these levels is a gift, of which I’m amazed how millions are given away with total lack of value perception, but hey ho, the world wants instant returns, if that’s your goal, mining shares are not for you, patience is a must, years not days is what your tying your money into, but the rewards can be huge, and I don’t mean doubling my investment, that I have already had with MTL, but passed it by, my belief is I can 10 fold my investment within the next 5 years.
Finance terms will come and that will be an instant boost to our share price, enough for many to exit at a profit, for me it will be the thank you for holding solidly in the dark, will I be selling, no way, it’s the new start, it’s like hitting the reset button, it’s where we get to see the fruits blossom, I hope those on board see that and join my journey.

Don, 67% efficiency isn’t enough to make fast progress, but its enough to make slow progress, 67% is producing 16k ounces, at current gold prices of $1500 an ounce, that will equate to $24 million in our up and coming Q3 gold sales, our quarterly costs last year were lower at around $16 million, this year we are spending more at $18 million because we are carrying out long overdue repairs and hiring additional equipment and expensive expertise, but even at these temporary high running costs that will clear $6 million free cash flow, that’s enough to pay our current interest liabilities of $3 million a quarter and still afford a $3 million capital repayment, it’s a start, we have gone backwards financially for 15 years, $250 million invested to get to this point in time, 67% efficiency (16k ounces) at $1500 is at last going financially forward, 15 years from the start of this project we are finally going forward, but that’s not recognised yet in our share-price, we are off the radar, Darren Bowden now has the ammunition to show the banks actual facts, with his expertise and knowledge the recent agreed standstills, he had started the changes required, he can now have the confidence to tell them how we will progress this project, the banks are aware of this recent gold rush, agreeing obtainable and realistic repayments is the way forward for all involved.
I believe we can get the BIOX circuit running as designed, it’s a proven technology and DB has hired BIOX experts to fulfil that, parts of the processing plant need altering, as they are causing bottle necks to efficiency, they will be addressed sooner than later, again, the spare cash will facilitate this, we are at a turning point, DB was confident of achieving 80% efficiency this year, that’s 20k ounces quarters, $30 million income or $12 million after costs, that’s $48 million annually, serious money, faster progress to a achieving a debt free company, that’s the long term goal, with 85% of the land bank untouched, 100% owned by MTL,,we have a long and prosperous future, a pension pot, we are so cheap at the moment, it’s just silly, but that’s investing, some AIM companies have crazy valuations with just a sniff of future possibilities, MTL is hard fact, it’s here and it’s producing, an asset that happens to be extremely high in demand today, we had the banks support when we hadn’t turned a nugget, it’s obvious we have it today now we are turning profits, time to Buy is now, not when it’s spelt out in a tipster article.
GLA

When I got on board of MTL, back in Dec 2016, we were at the point where we were going from gold explorer to gold producer, the share price was 5p and a director of the company purchased £250000 worth of his company shares, the banks had happily loaned $81 million, and everything was exciting and rosey, if you had £50k you could purchase 1 million shares, which looked good value when you looked at the fundamentals, 10 years proven gold resources at 100k ounces per year, we had produced 0 ounces of gold at $1200 per ounce, but production ramping up was the term used to let us know that the ore rich earth was about to be put through the processing system, huge numbers of shares were being bought by private investors, that was less than 3 years ago, so today, you can buy 1 million shares for £6.5k, why? We are producing 16k ounces a quarter, $1500 dollars an ounce, 7 years proven resources remain, of which is just 15% of our total land bank, shares in issue unchanged, no share dilution.
I think the answer is purely linked to uncertainty with the banks decision to set us a new payment plan, the production is increasing every quarter and will continue, with the repairs and adjustments in action, serious improvements will come.
The debts are $117 million today, less than half of the $250 million required to get this project up and running, they are manageable, we don’t need further funding, all we need is to dig and process our resources, and pay back the loans, with cash positive quarterly production, one quarter at a time, this quarter Q3 alone is set to make $6 to $9 million free cash flow if gold remains at $1500, when the banks and MTL agree to fair terms, bingo, patience will be rewarded.

$1530 looking good

My take on the delay with showing us the Q2 figures was
DB had come close to obtaining the re finance, the HSBC typhoon issue in Hong Kong seemed to be delaying an agreement, as if they were close to one, and would finalise something when they returned to work, so another official standstill month wasn’t required, I have a feeling we are on the edge of an offer, it’s now clear we can generate free cash flow, even if efficiency hasn’t improved in Q3 we will sell 16k ounces at around $1500 generating $24 million income, even matching our Q2 high running costs that will generate $6 million, enough to make small loan capital payments with interest
The banks will want to see their money coming back to them ASAP, we look to be in a position this time to start that process, 6 months back that simply wasn’t possible.
I’m expecting an agreement in August.

https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-08-12/Keep-Cutting-Morons-Watch-Gold-Go-Straight-Up

Great clip, the last time we had to stimulate the economy, we reduced rates and printed money, this time any slow down in the world economy has no silver bullet to kill the demon, a recession will be long winded, so hedge your bets and buy gold, or, buy gold stocks ripe to benefit most, top up time again.

The last time we was above $1500 dollars an ounce started in 2011 and lasted 2 years, hitting $1900 in 2012, before falling back in 2013, I hope history repeats.

Totally agree Shinfalls, keep the gold coming BD and the rest will fall into place, this gold bull run is tipped to break the 2008 levels, we have a chance to see $2000 dollars an ounce, that would supercharge MTL and it’s share price.

We also had around 300 ounces poured but not sold in that Q2 report, if we had cashed it in, we would have made $1.8 million clear and not $1.4 million, as Tesco puts it, every little helps, remember, these standstills are our friend, not our enemy, when you need cash to make the changes required to get the efficiency up, which is the answer to our issues, then a free period from capital and interest payments allows us to raise enough profit from our current gold sales to buy the new plant equipment, repair the failing processing parts, hire expertise to find and cure the processing issues, you have to do this and the gold processing efficiency and output will increase, that’s the only way out of this poverty trap.
30k ounces of gold in the last 6 months is a decent improvement over the 24K ounces for the 6 months previous, if we can make the same level of improvement in the next 6 month period, as in 36k ounces as our knowledge and processing improvements gain traction, with gold at $1500 an ounce we would make $54 million income, with costs matching the last 6 months of $36 million, that’s $18 million extra free cash flow added to our $3.5 million in hand.
Even with our current high interest of $1 million per month we will be clearing $2 million per month, enough to make capital repayments, if the interest or total debt is reduced with the refinance, great, if not, we can still manage our debts, so failure is possible, but unlikely, so with a ridiculous share price at the moment, it’s a fantastic bet.

Leo, I have found your $1.4 million that looks like it’s gone missing, it hasn’t, it’s a mistake made in the Q1 account report, if you look at the accounts, where it shows “other Philippine costs” at $952k, the accountant forgot the UK costs in that figure, which were $1403k, it should have shown UK/Philippine Costs $2355k, so in fact we made less “Free Cashflow” in Q1, it wasn’t $3510k but was actually $2107k.
If you look at the Q2 accounts, you will see they have corrected the numbers, it now states “UK/Philippine Costs” at $2160k for the quarter, add the Q1 figure of $2355 you get the 6 month total of $4515.
So the Q2 “Free Cashflow” of $1344k plus the amended “Q1 Free Cashflow” of $2355 gives us a total 6 month “Free Cashflow” of $3451 as stated.
In short we made $2.355 million profit in Q1 and $1.344 million in Q2.
The accountant missed a figure in his software, and generated an inaccurate bottom line in Q1, that’s all it is, the Q2 production is very similar to Q1, the Gold price average was again very similar, but at around $200 dollars an ounce less than today, if we have had the gold price we have now, we would have generated another $6 million and cash in the bank would be $9.5 million and not $3.5 million.
My take is as long as the gold price remains at this level, then the next six months should generate $9.5 million profit even if our efficiency doesn’t improve, but I can see with the knowledge gained over the last 6 months, we can implement the improvements required and generate even more, efficiency at 67% is just the start, it will improve.
The Standstill agreements are not costing us additional money, we are simply not paying the interest on the loans, at around $1 million per month, thats expensive, that’s why we need a conclusion to either get a reduced capital amount or a reduced interest rate.
So there’s nothing sinister in the accounting, just an error in the Q1 report, keep the faith and we will literally dig our way to profit.

Certainly is Adam, although Q2 didn’t produce the $6 million clear I was hoping for, we know why, and that’s important, the gold produced every quarter is increasing, just shy of 16k ounces is 5k ounces more than the 2018 director produced, the extra costs associated battering our profit margins are mostly down to overdue repairs, hiring of equipment, studies, hiring of experts, etc etc, all these costs will reduce after this year, and gold recoveries will increase, that with the higher price of gold, you can see the future will improve, I know this sounds like excuses, but it’s reality, and DB is facing them everyday, I have total confidence in his accurate and honest reports, we are still priced as a failure, 0.65p but that doesn’t reflect the improvements we have made in 6 months, 6 more will yield more improvements, the banks will cut a refinance deal, or the major shareholders may buy the debt, but with this gold rally, we have every chance to be very successful.
This is my pension investment, so I’m happy to sit and wait, that’s mining, that’s investing, I’m happy to lock my shares away for the rise that will come with a little patience, most on this chat board are of the same mind.
Have a great weekend everyone

The standstill can come to an end at any point in time, it’s a negotiation, which comes to an end when it’s agreed, that could be this week, next week, next month, so being out is just as big a risk, we’re are so cheap it’s time to buy, not sell

Well I was close with my estimate of 16k ounces, but I was hoping for lower costs, I must say I’m starting to wonder the same as mentioned by Ruchillrover, DB may be playing down our recovery, as to obtain a helping hand deal from the banks, we are still cash positive for the second period in a row, maybe doing too well at this point would be shooting yourself in the foot, those who are new to the company over the last day or two, don’t fret, your in at a very cheap entry point, some here paid 40p a share at the early stages, Q3 will be better, at $1500 an ounce we would have another $3 million profit in the bank without any changes, So hold tight and wait to see how Darren Bowden steers us to better production once the refinance has been agreed.

Broke through already, $1506 as we speak, this is game changing, be in no doubt.
100k ounces per annum at $1000 dollars was the projected design parameters ($100 million before costs)
66.6k ounces at $1500 dollars produces the same revenue, $100 million before costs) or 16.65k ounces per quarter produces $25 million, even with our current production efficiency we will hit the design incomes.
0.7p you have to laugh.

Through $1470 and rising

Will let you have 100k at under 0.8p, any more and you have to stump up 0.9p

Making peeps pay for them now, 0.9p, same trick, showing ask at 0.8p, they are not letting anyone in cheap before the news

0.8p was the best offered on Friday and this morning, the 0.7p indicated was never offered, saying that, still cheap as chips at 0.8p, it’s baffling to be this low still, when, not if, this 14 year old journey continues, and the less risk adverse see the light, back to 3p in a matter of days, and that will be just for tasters, it takes the media to bring us to attention, positive news will spread and new blood will rush in