Member Info for leehardcastle

There isn’t going to be a placing, how can you at the current share price? Which is purely Ruffers offloading and no bearing on the companies position, so take the opportunity whilst it lasts, Ruffers will run out at some point, today? Next week, no one knows, but the selling pressure will pass and you will look back in 12 months and wonder why you didn’t, gold production is the answer, not rIsing equity, the major shareholders and Darren Bowden know it’s the only way forward, and we will know soon enough, got my 3 million and no ones getting them, pension pot, done

I have been in the camp that we would not dilute the shareholding’s to raise capital, as I believe we can make our own money through operating the mine with efficiency for 3 months, we’ll its looking more and more likely I could be right, if Darren Bowden has plans to a rights issue, it would be mentioned by now, so his goal to pay the senior loan payment due on the 31st of March, and we have to, no question, we can’t test the patience of the banks again, he must be confident the mine can do it, with possible reassurances from the major shareholders to make good any deficit.
Coming clean with our dire efficiencies last year was an eye opener for me, the fact we produced 48k ounces with an average BIOX performance of 31% gives me confidence that 100k ounces is easily achieved with the BIOX running correctly, With POG at a much higher level than last year, it’s making it much easier for us to generate serious cash from our gold production, all will be come clear during this next few weeks, exiting times, ad if my hunch is right, we are in for a huge correction, 80% efficiency or 20k ounces this quarter will be good enough to cement this companies future, I’m super confident with this new management.

Nice list volmer, Mr Bowden is certainly a busy man, fantastic start and we’re not even out of February, keep up the solid work sir, such a breath of fresh air having competent management :-)

Well I’m no expert, but the main points I can pick from the information is that the BIOX circuit averaged only 31% of design performance as an average for the first 11 months of 2018, that’s bad, the overall gold recoveries were accurate, but the efficiency was overstated, as in more material was put in the front end than reported for the amount of gold recovered at the back end, the good news is that the BIOX circuit was running at 65% in December 2018, so we have a good base point to get it up to 100% with more tweaking.
The facts are we put a massive amount of material in at great expense, and pulled out about a third the gold what should be processed out of it, hence why costs increased each quarter as they shoved more and more material in to hide the inefficiency of the processing plant as operated by inept operators, if the plant runs at even 75% then we would see twice as much gold for less operational costs.
I think some of the bugs will take a while to iron out, but getting the stripping of waste land to reach the pay dirt accurate, which they admitted to messing up in Oct and Nov, wasting fuel and man hours needs better managing, the BIOX has to consistent and up to design performance, get those perfected and the mine will make its 25k ounces per quarter for a cost of $650 per ounce to sell at $1325 etc, bingo

Well he’s answered every question going for me, I’m super happy he’s on board, 1. He’s revealed MTLs lack of efficient production for 2017 and 2018, the old CEO never had the skills or leadership to debug the plant, fudging the numbers to hide the facts, which never made sense, high costs for little gold return, now we know why.
2. He’s pushed/sacked the weak, brought in experts and 3rd party independents, we now have total clarity.
3. 63.3 million Finance secured as promised, sensible interest rates.
4. He’s expecting nameplate design production by June, he has already acknowledge the plant as fundamentally sound, Share Phrophets numbers look hugely promising.
We are putting all the puzzle pieces together bit by bit, logically and on time, and no one can deny this fact, we are in a better place than December 2018, time will tell the truth, the share price will catch up with that truth, I feel today’s news has put a line under our failings, it’s revealed why we came so close to failing, its also telling us to expect better performance in the future, this is going to be a transformational year for all invested.

Buys 2 to 1 sell today, Ruffer seem to have gone?

Took some more, I think we may be about to break up, bid rising now and no ones taking it, good sign

Wanobi confirmed purchased of 500000 over at ADVFN, looks pretty normal to me today, the spread has widened so I don’t think there are any large sell orders to fill, I think the MMs are in control of the shares they hold, don’t think they will give them away

What’s the target Roy, 8 million? Or are you competing with pjballsports61 on ADVFN, he’s got 10 million already, 3 million of those are Ruffers, it’s funny but you don’t need many investors to soak up 101 million, I reckon it will take just 50 like minded to soak them up, I will have had 1.5 million of them between me and my brother, as the price has fallen further than I expected, it’s accelerated the process, I thought they would have been patient at a penny, but seems the markets makers have control of them all, we really are at bargain levels again, doesn’t cost a lot of cash to soak them. up

We don’t need fundraising, we are producing our own cash, we will make the 1st payment through gold sales, if were short then we will get support by the major shareholders, just like we have multiple times already, why raise cash to put into an offshore account, only to be taken by the bank when we have more than $6 million in it? Why would the major shareholders dilute their holdings to pay the bank back quicker, they will get their cash at the 7 scheduled paymentt dates, the banks are making demands that are not necessary, and the major shareholders will negotiate that very detail when the time comes.
Leo, I put a pound to a penny you don’t hold a share.

I’m having my usual coffee in Starbucks, time to kill, so I thought I would share a true story with you, I have an accountant friend who worked for Pendragon, they were/are the biggest car retailer in the UK, the 2008 financial crisis sent car sales to plummet, Pendragon were heavily financed with the banks, most of their car stocks were bought by banks money, payments to the banks were due month on month, but car sales had dropped of a cliff, so Pendragon couldn’t meet the payments, they were in technical “default” and imminent repossion was a real danger, my friend being the accountant who sorted the branches staff wages was told there may be no funds to pay staff that month, this got out to the markets and the share price plummeted to 2p, from over a £1 just a year earlier, the company was bust.
But the banks had a problem, and my assute accountant new it, he bought £5000 of PDG.L (Pendragon) at 2p, was he crazy? Maybe, but this was his reasoning, he thought, who would sell these cars if no ones buying them, who could handle the huge amount of cars in Pendragons stock? After all, Pendragon are the biggest car retailer in the UK, so he took a gamble and figured the banks would have to suck the lack of repayments and let the giant ride the storm, they were too big to close, he was right.
My canny friend saw 50p a share materialise a couple of years later, he was sat on a 25 bagger, but he hasn’t sold a share, he’s happy taking dividends, and laughs at the ammounts he gets every year from his £5k investment, patience and canny nerve has paid him hansomly.
This approach to investing had enlightened me, and I want to repeat his canny approach, he got 250000 shares for 5k, previous years that would have set you back £250k, money only the rich would invest in one company, but this average working man has those shares.
That’s an honest storey, and it has similarities to us, we are a company that’s share price is based on fears, fears of being closed down, well that’s not going to happen as the banks have the same problem, what the hell do they do with a mine in the Phillipines? They can’t run it, they can’t sell it, as the Philippine government won’t allow change of ownership, so they will run with it, hook or by crook, and that’s why I have 100% confidence, not doubting success, it’s patience and not getting spooked that will pay dividend.
I will keep taking opportunities to top up as funds allow this next couple of weeks, I want 3 million, nearly got them, 2 more buys whilst Ruffer are selling will do me, then I’m a closed book, Ruffer are allowing us all the chance to grab a huge position for buttons.
GLA and hope you don’t loose faith, we will come good in good time.

continued......current quarter and based on 64% efficiency as of 31st Dec 2018.
This will be fantastic for the company if those figures materialise, Share Phrophets seem very specific, which gives me a lot of confidence in his information and reasoning.
I still think the major shareholders are happy to wait for their Mezzanine funds to come back to them after Dec 2020, I believe they pressurised MTL with words like “default” to get them to agree to new leadership, it’s worked, but the fact they haven’t mentioned the debts since, even though we have the banks new payment schedule, who strictly say they must receive all profits to pay the bank loans before any other party, then I think they will be patient and wait another 21 months.
The fear we are heading to a disaster is natural, a low share price has you thinking that at best, but fear not, we are producing gold and that’s the answer, the debts are the same however or who ever you owe them too, the fine print is not as important as people are fearing, every party involved wants this to succeed, every party needs it to succeed to get their investments back, with profits, the banks can’t close a mine and expect to get $63 million back, so they have to play ball, the major shareholders have set this new direction in action and will nourish it, support it, let it grow, so on that basis, we don’t need to worry too much, as always, we can’t foresee production gremlins, but if we keep them to a minimum, we will dig our way to a profit in less than 3 years, debt free and nothing can stop you.

Hi all, I was just looking back at the recent update from Share Prophets:

Metals Exploration (MTL), the gold producer in the Philippines, has announced an agreement to reschedule payments of $63.3 million to its bankers, HSBC and Paribas, concluding on 31 December next year.

What should be of most concern however is “a condition precedent” of a payment of $15 million by the end of next month and the demand to the company to raise $20 million in fresh equity.

Bear in mind that the company’s shares are currently capitalised at only £20 million and such a demand would necessitate at least a one for one rights issue but, given the time available, such a conclusion is unlikely.

The banks are playing hard ball but it is my understanding they have a problem they are not used to. Under Philippines law any change of ownership of the mine would mean the licence reverting to the Government. So not just in geological terms they are genuinely between a rock and a hard place.

Therefore I believe one should read the latest announcement as a negotiating position rather than a definitive agreement.

This has been dragging on but one might take some comfort from the fact that Nick Candy who controls 47% of the company and Graham Edwards who owns a further 19% have long experience of negotiations with banks.

Meanwhile the new management under Darren Bowden is finally whipping the mine into proper shape. I hear that production is now processing 6.5 thousand tonnes of ore a day and the flotation circuit is much improved. He is, apparently, confident he can get the mine up to nameplate production by the middle of this year. That means our problems will be over.

I wonder how he gets this information? It’s extremely specific, the processing of 6500 tonnes of ore per day, it’s a figure you could only get from talking to someone at the mine, it’s a great figure, and if I was a new CEO who had to prove his worth from day one, I would do the same, putting more ore through is easily done, it’s just digging and transporting more material into the processing plant, keeping the diggers and dumpers running full time could be the answer short term to overcome any lack of efficiency with the Floatation part of the system, so let’s say the BIOX is running at 75% but you throw in an extra 25% more material at the front end, you get a similar result in gold production, efficiency is not as good as it should be, but it’s a quick fix.
Based on 6500 tonnes per day, at the last quarters 1.53g per tonne and an efficiency of 75% from the processing plant, you get 7.46kg of gold per day, 3 months at that rate is 679kg of gold to sell at a current price of $42700 per kg
That’s an income before costs of $29 million.
Now those figures are not fiction, they are based on previous gold quantities and the current POG, efficient of 75% is still pretty poor as we have to be at 100% by June, so I’m taking an estimate at a 11% improvement since December as an average for the

Agree, the best form of equity is from gold sales, it’s new money, it’s better than borrowing from Peter to pay Paul, we have to start reducing debts from gold sales, that’s not an option anymore, the delay in that process is what’s caused all this drama, I’m amazed investors find it so hard to believe we can operate the equipment, the last team failed because of a lack of experience, the new team have been chosen with that experience, the equipment is in place, the gold is in the ground, so getting it working is a matter of operating it as designed, it’s designed to make a 25k ounces per quarter, so run correctly, that’s what it will produce, this quarter will be the last one to not to reach that total, but to what amount is to be found out, I’m confident from the statements made that we ran at 64% in December, and that the processing plant was fundamentally sound according to Mr Bowden, if we have to run at 100% by June, then incrementally we need to raise our productivity between 64% and 100%, so that’s 82% expected this quarter, or 20.5 k ounces, if we produce that it’s $27 million income from new gold sales with $4 million unsold from the previous quarter, we should have $31 million total, add $1.7 million from cash reserves, total nearly $33 million less costs, so that would be enough to make that payment, and enough to keep the wolves (bankers) from the door.
There’s GOLD in them hills, keep positive

Share Prophets thought it was more a bartering offer than a hard and fast requirement, I think the banks have to be happy with $15.5 million paid off the $63.3 million outstanding, I mean the debt to them is then only $47.8 to follow, I can’t see why they require $20 million to be raised, it makes no sense, just because they say jump, we don’t have to, they are not in total control, as mentioned, they can’t really do much with the mine if they tried to scream default, so I stand to think they will accept $15.5 million at the end of March, allow us to build up cash reserves in the next quarter so as to meet the $5 million in the account to operate the mine, next payment in June is only $2.5 million, so that’s designed to allow cash reserves build up without fuss, the excess over $6 million will be taken to reduce the final payment of $27 million in Dec 2020.
The banks are not in a position to dictate, so flexibility will prevail, and meeting in the middle will have to happen.

Just took a look at the volumes for the last month, 250 million shares traded, sells must outway buys as the price has dropped, so I’m guessing 130 million sold to 120 million bought? If 130 million sold, how many were Ruffers? At half being Ruffer and half PRivate investors, that’s 65 million from Ruffer in the last 4 weeks trading, Ruffer told the market on the 23rd of January that they had only 101 million remaining, so we’ve had 4 weeks trading since, that’s a fag packet 35 million to go, 1 to 2 weeks remaining possibly? Any thoughts?

I’m thinking it could be less than that, as you say, they sold heavy into the rises, when we were trading 40 million in a day, the frenzied buying was still drowned out by them, so even at 2 million sold a day on the lower volume days, they will have sold 40 million in a month, reckon we’re down to the last next week, as the price dropping is increasingly raising volumes, with Febuary out of the way soon, March will be a better month, as we anticipate good gold results, that’s another figure to guess, I’m hoping for 20k ounces for the quarter since Xmas, as we did 14k ounces with 2 shockingly bad months the previous quarter, oxidised old ore, plant maintenance and a software stripping error that resulted in a lack of earth put through the front end of the processing plant, so it was only December that saw us hit reasonable performance (64%) 20k ounces and were in gravy, $26.5 million plus the $4 million unsold is over $30 million in gold sales, that’s not unreasonable, if we keep costs to $15 million then were home and dry with the banks, in the mean time, I still need a few more for my 3 million share club

Any estimates on Ruffers holding now? They have offloaded millions most days, volumes over the last month have been reasonably high for a long period now, if a half of all selling has been Ruffer, what’s your estimates? We will bounce back hard and fast when they are gone, no doubts there.

I just add a little at each increment down, if it turns either by Ruffer being sold out, or as you say, finance clarity, then at least you grabbed some of the MTL winters sale, good luck how ever you play it.

Very temporary absurd, Ruffer will run out of shares very quickly, then upwards unshackled, take the opportunity to build a larger position, I’m not wasting the golden opportunity.