Member Info for leas

Another tenderdoc added on their website for road maintenance and upgrade of existing roads in the Meta Department . It's clear to me that despite other projects in other countries ONGC are putting a great deal of effort into developing the infrastructure in the Colombian CPO-5 block. The scope of work required is no minor contract but perhaps indicates ONGC's strategy on development there. Looking at the number of recent contracts they must be pretty bullish on where they see production and reserves going forward and maybe see the installation of that infrastructure being a priority over drilling (for now).
That is how I am reading it and perhaps not a bad strategy if they are looking at getting a keen price for the contracts and for any additional land purchase required to complete the civil works.
May explain the apparent sluggish pace of ONGC and no further rigs.

www.ongcvidesh.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Tenderdoc-Road-Maintenance-2019.pdf

Throughput numbers should be determined over a period of time. It is only then you can determine an accurate figure. Pressure in our water pipes change all the time but our utility company can give us an expected flow rate. No wonder the company moved away from monthly operational updates. Investors can put their own spin on it to suit their own agenda. Reading these bb you would have to be pretty dumb not to see which member has changed their position here but not as dumb as that person thinking what they publish will affect the sp.

HullFC, Pretty much sums it up. Sadly most judge success on sp alone. You see other companies, not necessarily in this sector with over inflated MC's when they have no assets and loaded with debt. You run over the fundamentals, see the risks but never read any criticism of the BoD's until the share price crashes.
I am reasonably happy with AMER's progression and potential growth. A lot of the positives get ignored and we look for the negatives due to the trend.

As I posted yesterday. A bit of ‘cabin fever’ creeping in. Shame to destroy a otherwise informative bb with childlike quips. Good posts from both Luck and Fevertree so just leave it at that. Why create issues when there are non? The world has enough Donald Trumps already.

Bill, I bought a second tranche at just below 15p with an average of 19p. I think the 18.5p was an intraday price followed by a rally at the close back in November. I only remember because it fell below my average and I was in 2 minds whether to add further or sit it out. Either way, a steal at anything below 30p. The rare institutional sized trades are probably transfers and I would hazard a guess that most of the institutions have a very much higher average than the majority of private investors.

Bill, I think it has bounced off the mid 18p twice in the last 6 months and also feel that the news is imminent. However, I have been expecting news on P3 trial for Flu-v for quite a while. I'm wondering if the institutions 'got wind' of HVO being in discussions after our stand in CEO informed the market that news was very close. I'm wondering if that deal fell through and maybe the company had to open talks with another party.
With non disclosure contracts, the company cannot release a RNS and does not need to release a RNS if those talks fail. The CEO made a bit of a gaff last year imo as it changed investor's expectations. I have no doubts that the sp will return to the post P2 trial update and exceed that level but the frustration of waiting will make many pi's sell up as they see value elsewhere.
Buying at these levels is pretty much nailed on, especially with a vaccine that had such a good readout.

CD, posts crossed but the same thoughts.

Jtd's
I think AMER's fundamentals are good and improving, despite the sp indicating the opposite. We have had RH dumping shares and now we have an Institutional seller doing the same. The geopolitical situation carries risk but there could be a lot of worse places to produce. Middle East, Offshore, Russia ….
The fundamentals are improving all the time for AMER despite the sp telling us the opposite. Once the selling has dried up the sp will catch up very quickly imo.
Lots of AT's today so probably some big trades to come today. Will they be the last of the seller's? Who knows. For me that is the frustration. It will turn and all those positives currently being ignored will come into play.

Jtd's thank you for the correction with ONGC's involvement in Colombia. Their relationships with suppliers and services seems non existent. I think they have had to put back the civil works development date for Ind-1 two times already (tender doc) I still think securing a further drill rig will be difficult but that's just my guess. I'm hoping they will surprise us.
Thanks for the link on the Investment showcase. Colonbia is becoming a far more attractive place to invest in than the Middle east and Africa. Just hope they learn from the mistakes of their neighbours and share some of that wealth with their people.
I see that ONGC always state that a contractor should always favour the local workforce. Not a bad PR strategy and should ease some tensions around development of any discoveries.

Jaggers, MC is painting a false picture of the business, the number of AT's required to control the price speaks for itself. Bit by bit the numbers are firming up and collectively they will reverse the trend. My concern, short-term is procurement of further rigs in the CPO-5 block. A poster over the weekend remarked that ONGC were .dragging their feet'. I don't necessarily agree with that, as it is easy to forget that our lead partner are new to the region and building up relationships with contractors and suppliers will take time. I am sure that with all the increased exploration in Colombia, securing further rigs/drill teams will be difficult.
Another thing of note is ONGC are a Public Sector Company, their focus is not entirely on Colombia, with many other assets. ONGC have no shareholders to keep onside but the potential for CPO-5 may shift their focus as the field is proved up.
Difficult to ignore the sp performance here but the improving fundamentals are impossible to ignore. Upside is far too good. Many posters who quite rightly point out the negatives and the risks forget to point out our current MC. We are trading at sub 15 and not sub 30.
There is a good reason why the sp is constantly manipulated here. It's certainly not for the benefit of private investors. It wasn't that long ago that ANGS was valued above AMER and the only thing leaving their site was tankers of contaminated waste.
Numbers are slowly improving now, muted response to Sol-1 but I think further evaluation will surprise one or two and although we only get a proportion of that it may just tip the balance back in our favour.

Major boy, good luck with your other investments. All the best.

Not looked in an the lse bb for a while so apologies if this has already been discussed. (I have posted this already this morning but for some reason the site has not updated) ONGC have added a further 2 tender docs in relation to CPO-5 and it is clear that they are focusing on the development of the block. One doc is for Contingency Plan service for oil spillage and the most recent one (note the wording for 'Hiring of Gas Processing Efficiency System for wells in CPO-5 Block'
The tender doc states one well and one contingent well. I assume this is for Ind-1 but id the contingent well a reference to Sol-1?
ONGC may be slow to update the market (they have no obligation to London Stock Market Rules) but they are certainly keen to develop their assets in Colombia.

Wow! Neil thank you for you investing advice. Just reading some of your previous posts in order to gauge some understanding of your experience and knowledge. Very interesting advice you passed on to LSE members last year on CLP, Not forgetting your average here.
HVO's success does not depend on the amount of shares he has in the company. His failings are no reflection on the company.
No doubt your aware of the small free float here and more than aware of the affects any scaremongering has on the sp when pi's panicked.

Sadly, that is true. No update in any negotiations due to NDC. Usual pharma contracts in discussions. That said, Trevor Philips should not have give a market presentation indicating that a deal was close. For me, this is like history repeating itself with IMM, drop from 60s to low 40s and then a rapid rise to 190.
Difference here being any P3 trial should be a 'carbon copy' of P11b which had an exceptional readout. Unfortunately as pi's we are always the last to know. Any positive update on Flu-v will see a rise that will be as swift as last June and many long suffering investor will probably sell into that rise and glad to be out.

Choppy, the sell off has been relentless for months and months. Through the good updates too. The BoD's have also added to their holding at a premium price. Not trying to defend them as their actions or lack of it is plain for all to see and the current MC more than reflects that. Despite all of that, I think the potential here is a great opportunity for a good return, T/O or not. Lots of private investors here are 'punch drunk' and patience tested to the point of selling for the relief of being out. The perfect play here for institutions as they know the sentiment and phycology they have created will ultimately benefit them.

How do you know they were sells. The colour does not necessarily confirm they were. They are both above the bid at the time so they were probably shares acquired and the price dropped the previous day to facilitate the price. ‘Mates rates’

Certainly a sign that our seller may have finished. Normally trades of that size have no affect on the price. Fingers crossed in any case. Huge volume yesterday that could have cleared the decks.

All have a good weekend..

13.9p? Am I reading that right?

fusion, don’t let the colour of the trade lead you to assumptions. It may also have been a sell if you look at the time stamp. May also account for today’s drop. Little volume can easily move the share price in any direction.
Very small float for the pi and news long overdue. I’m guessing it will catch all of us off guard.

Good morning jtd. I posted the link a few days ago but got lost in all the chat about the AGM. Similar view in respect of ONGC 'jacking up' the development of the CPO-5 block. 6 of their last 10 tenders published have been about just that and it is clear to see that they are seeing Colombia as a place of great potential.
I read somewhere that Colombia are in the top 3 of countries for successful oil discoveries last year and puts AMER in a very strong position. Some chunky trades yesterday, feeling very bullish despite the poor sp performance.