Member Info for LayLadyLay

Barbara seems to be doing a good job, don't you think in4cedros? She's been tidying things up a bit and setting the record straight.

HH - I sense a wind of change since the breakup of Petrotrin. The Ministry of Finance on the one hand is trying to balance the books by raising taxes but on the other hand has to look into the future of the industry and find an equitable balance in its tax regime that allows for companies like CERP to be rewarded for its exploration activities. There was no mention of SPT in last year's budget but there's a reasonable chance that the upcoming budget for 2019/20 will address issues facing the industry and create some opportunities that will boost growth.

Reducing or eliminating the SPT burden would enable the prospect of T&T oilers being abe to arrest the decline in exploration activities and find attractive new ways to boost output and create revenue that will benefit the country as a whole. Leaving things as they are is not the best way forward and I'm sure that lobbyists have made that plain to the government. Change in the tax regime is long overdue and maybe we are reaching a tipping point with the breakup of Petrotrin that brings some focus on what is needed to incentivize growth within the industry and to enable companies like CERP to be rewarded for making capital investments.

Positive changes in the tax regime could be a game changer that would accelerate growth and lead to profitability.

in4cedros - "BTW TXP CEO was drawing attention again to SPT in Trinidad and his hopes of changes in March budget - he stated he was deferring some expansion plans on that basis - looks like the lobbying has built up a head of steam !"

Reform of the tax regime is well overdue. SPT is particularly onerous as it is levied on revenue and not on profit. If there are positive measures taken in the budget to reduce the tax burden on small operators and incentivize investment then this would be a welcome development and a step in the right direction.

"One area in particular is the review of the Supplemental Petroleum Tax (SPT) system. It would seem that the Government is focused on reform of the gas sector and the oil producers have been pushed to a lower level of priority.

According to the Petroleum Economist, “Oil and gas company executives remain wary of new investment give the recent history of low prices: one executive of an independent oil company was reported as saying “no one wants to do anything that does not work at $50/b”

This is the exact figure where the structure of SPT in Trinidad & Tobago is most problematic. Oil companies in Trinidad & Tobago are in a negative cash flow situation when prices are in the low fifties, only returning to positive cash flows when prices are in the sixty-dollar region. Because companies are running scenarios on fifty-dollar oil before making investment decisions, addressing the issue of how SPT is calculated and payable, is crucial to attracting investment into the traditional oil sector."

https://energynow.tt/blog/lack-of-progress-on-spt-reform-is-hampering-investment-in-the-oil-sector

in4cedros reminds me of Baghdad Bob, the Iraqi Information Minister, who famously claimed in this clip, "Here I stand in Miami. There's only few resisting girls on Disneyworld. We have secured oil sources in Texas, and now we move directly to Washington. We've already arrested 'Fonzie', that guy from 'Happy Days'."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p9w03r5inWY

Some brave people are catching that falling knife and slowing, but not stopping, the inexorable erosion of the sp. How low can it go?

in4cedros - Regarding the film it had passed me by but the synopsis looked interesting - is it worth a full viewing?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uFGEoayFfv0

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GyaIF1iTs-Y

Irene - is he still going on about PostOffice accounts, FOMO, and technical reasons for CERP not posting profits ?

Yes it's incessant. He's even started quoting Josef Goebbels which is no surprise to me as 'arry is a one man propaganda machine. I don't think he knows it's rude to shout.

'It would not be impossible to PROVE with SUFFICIENT REPETITION and a psychological understanding of the people concerned that a square is in fact a circle. They are mere words and words can be molded until they clothe ideas and disguise.'

in4cedros - You seem to have developed an unhealthy interest in Irene that makes me wonder if you are more Charlie Baileygates in real life and Hank Evans on here.

HH - "Predator CO2 pilot deal. They foot the bill we provide the location 50/50 after costs recovery. Winner winner chicken dinner"

About those costs, how much is Predator paying for CO2 as this can impact in a big way on lifting costs. This is what Krishna Persad has to say on the matter.

"Trinidad is different in that it takes 3 mcf-8 mcf [84,960-226,560 cubic metres] of CO2 for each barrel of oil to come out; that is an average of 5 mcf [141,600 cubic metres]. If CO2 is USD 2 per 1 mcf [28,320 cubic metres], it adds about USD 10 to your barrel cost. If it is USD 3 per mcf, then it would be about 25% of your barrel cost."

It looks like the usual mini rise based on nothing but guessing where the bottom is and catching a falling knife. This is when we start to see people posting stuff like 'this can only go one way' or 'get in quick, it's a no brainer'. Without any positive news it's likely that significant selling will recommence sooner than later, leaving today's buyers wondering if they have bagged a bargain or simply been hung out to dry on the spike. Enjoy while it lasts. I'm sure that normal service will be resumed shortly!

LTID - "Leo Koot stated in the last company update on 9 January 2019, the Company will "now focus on a level of production that will allow us to high-grade our operations and well activities to achieve better financial results, focussing on a level of production that optimises profits ("better bang for our buck"), as opposed to chasing production targets per se.""

It's a balancing act of trying to maintain an optimal production rate whilst minimising capex spent on well maintenance/workovers that is needed to keep the oil flowing. Chasing production results in any operational profit evaporating. Doing too few well workovers results in a drop off in production. There will be an optimum level of capex spend that will see an effective cap on production that can be obtained. Barrels produced within that range will be the 'profitable barrels' Leo talks about but of course we don't know exactly how profitable they are at current WTI due to the effect of SPT.

Take another look at the AGM video presentation. In the first 5 minutes of the video Leo talks about what happened when they had 3 rigs going at Goudron. When they ran through the numbers they found that any operational profit was being wiped out by the capital cost. That's when they started talking about not chasing production for the sake of trying to show an increase. I feel that the 1021 bopd peak in December was just for show because they had set it as a target but it doesn't really reflect the reality of day to day operations IMHO.

It remains to be seen how much potential there really is for organic growth to fund drilling of SWP. I will be surprise if there isn't a need to raise more funds via a placing to 'accelerate' activities or else join with a partner, but at what cost to shareholders?

in4cedros - " didn't realise I'd touched a nerve"

Don't flatter yourself 'arry. You are projecting again.

It's been amusing seeing you squirm but I have other things to do today so I'll stop feeding the troll although I have no doubt you will continue to fish for attention in my absence.

in4cedros - you seem to have a problem with data from unsuccessful deep wells drilled onshore, citing they are not in the same area as SWP (some are), yet you persist in using Soldado North as your example of successful drilling. Imagine what you would be saying if Soldado North had been a duster and I used it as an example!

By the way, when you commence a post with " When you took advice from your psychologist" you are demonstrating your form of inventing details, which is the very definition of how a yarn is spun. You are adept at mixing fact and fiction, with the greater emphasis on fiction.

Do you see yourself as the caped superhero of CERP?

in4cedros - "To date Irene doesn’t seem keen to comment on Leo’s claim "

Why should she? After all it's just a forecast. You seem to think that anything Leo says is a stone cold certainty. Some of us prefer to wait and see.

I know you hate being ignored as you crave attention. Maybe you need to change the bait if you want to get a bite.

in4cedros - "as MrMagoo has pointed out to you tech has moved on a bit since the 1950's so I believe COS are a lot better now"

If it's not there it's not there, irrespective of technology employed to find it. You seem unable to substantiate any of your claims in4cedros. I can reference Cedros drills that have not been successful from Ministry records but you use another poster's claims on his blog as an alternative reality.

If CERP is fully funded for the 2019 work programme, what exactly does that mean? Is drilling of SWP included in that work programme or just the day to day field maintenance? Words can be interpreted according to how you want to read them. It's a broad brush statement that has no detail.

in4cedros - "as MrMagoo has pointed out to you tech has moved on a bit since the 1950's so I believe COS are a lot better now"

If it's not there it's not there, irrespective of technology employed to find it. You seem unable to substantiate any of your claims in4cedros. I can reference Cedros drills that have not been successful from Ministry records but you use another poster's claims on his blog as an alternative reality.

If CERP is fully funded for the 2019 work programme, what exactly does that mean? Is drilling of SWP included in that work programme or just the day to day field maintenance? Words can be interpreted according to how you want to read them. It's a broad brush statement that has no detail.

in4cedros - 1957

"Dominion Oil Limited, completed 10 exploratory wells without encountering commercial production.

Apex (Trinidad) Oilfields Limited, carried their Cedros well to 13,000 but did not encounter commercial production.

Drilling rigs in continuous operations during the year averaged 29 as compared to 27 in 1956."

All those rigs drilling a total of 1,322,483 feet for the year, yet "Exploration was rather disappointing, wild-cat wells being drilled in widely scattered areas without any new fields being discovered."

History teaches some of us to be rational in our expectations of success. If CERP intends to drill SWP in 2019 how will they fund this without significant dilution? Are we talking one well, two wells in 2019? What if the first few attempts find little or no oil pay, what then?

in4cedros - another possibility is that Apex Cedros 4 is actually the well described below and speculater has somehow got his facts mixed up as the details he gives match Fyzabad Well 560 results?

"Apex completed the drilling of an exploration well in the Cedros Peninsula. This well showed a good development of cruse sands which were unfortunately watered. It was abandoned in lower cruse clay at a depth of 12,872 feet".

in4cedros - unless Apex drilled two wells in 1954 to 16,155 feet (highly unlikely) then I feel that your Apex Cedros 4 is actually Fyzabad Well 560 which was completed in the Cruse, where a modest amount of oil pay was located during drilling.

in4cedros - sadly you don't know what you are talking about. Apex well 560 wasn't a duster as it was completed in the Cruse. However, drilling was stopped at depth when water was encountered.

Also, taken from official records ...

"Apex completed the drilling of an exploration well in the Cedros Peninsula. This well showed a good development of cruse sands which were unfortunately watered. It was abandoned in lower cruse clay at a depth of 12,872 feet".

Is this your Apex Cedros 4 I wonder? Further investigation warranted. Perhaps you could provide a link to your Apex Cedros 4 other than speculater blogspot?