Member Info for LayLadyLay

lgo - " He does have a 3000bopd production in mind from Goudron alone, "

So did NR. In his ACIEP presentation in Madrid on 15 April, 2015 he forecast production from Goudron of just over 3000 bopd by 2016, tailing off slightly in 2017 then with the aid of waterflood achieving 5,500 bopd in 2018 and peaking at 7,500 bopd in 2019 before a gradual year on year decline thereafter.

The best laid plans of mice and men eh?

* like his tosh above 151 bpd all being tier 3 netback.

There's an old saying in professional golf, "you drive for show but put for dough". Ostensibly hitting the magical 1000 bopd was always going to be for show. The average bopd is less impressive.

Irene - "Regarding the bblds, I found the figures in the RNS odd.

Q3 peak production was 879 with a 735 average
Q4 peak production was 1021 with a 670 average. "

In4cedros - "deep gratitude to you for that post about ' Last Minute Leo ' hitting the target on the last day got me thinking about the maths for the average calculation."

Irene, I'm sure in4cedros has all the answers at his fingertips and if he doesn't then he's quite capable of making stuff up like his tosh 151 bpd all being tier 3 netback.

'arry, you seem to be strangely fascinated to know where in Portugal LK is now resident. Perhaps when you speak to him for directions you could mention that the CERP website still says, "Mr Koot is a Dutch national, currently residing in the UK". I suppose I'm being pedantic but you know that 'attention to detail' is part and parcel of keeping everything accurate and professional. You can whisper in his ear how many shares you have 'arry.

This post from carpadium on the other forum made me smile.

"Well, we're off and running into what should prove a transformational year for CERP. So forget the 48% we're down last year, it's almost impossible to imagine we'll fail to recoup this loss, and much more, this year with some degree of pay off from w/f, guaranteed M&A deal(s), 3 new wells drilled in SWP and development of Steeldrum assets. Be positive, a reversal of fortunes beckon!"

I wonder who he/she posts as here?

"You may say I'm a dreamer but I'm not the only one" - John Lennon

"Never argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience."
Mark Twain

Your trolling technique is one of the most basic 'arry. It's akin to fishing. You state something that you know is incorrect, such as implying I have a particular opinion or have now agreed with you on some point or other, with the intention of getting a reaction. If you succeed in getting a reaction you just reset the bait with another asinine statement in an attempt to get another bite. Rinse and repeat. You have been doing it for years 'arry to no avail.

It's a fairly useless piece of information you are touting 'arry. It's clear that barrels over 4590 per month earn the most and converting that to bopd and then working out percentages adds what? I would suggest you calculate deductions properly rather than rely on an average amount that Neil published during his tenure.

By the way, none of this takes account of capex for workovers to keep the oil flowing.

Don't bother trying to prolong this discussion because I'm not interested in anything you have to say.

Operating and capital expenses

The operating expenses for the field that were forecast are based on historical expenses from 2015, with adjustments made to account for one-time expenses. The operating expenses have been applied with both a fixed and variable component, but the costs are largely considered fixed. Based on historical costs, it has been estimated that 1.3 MM$ per year of operating expenses are fixed for the field, an incremental $8,400/well is also fixed. Additional fixed costs of $2,500/well are applied when the well count exceeds 83 to account for civil and grass cutting costs. Variable costs of $0.20/bbl have been applied for all volumes greater than 700 bbl/d for costs associated with processing. A LACT unit is expected to be installed in 2018 that will eliminate this cost. Finally, a cost of $0.16/bbl has been forecast to account for power expenses.

You keep rattling on about the CPR 'arry as if you have only recently become aware of it despite its existence since July 2016.

You are seeking to prove something by referencing the monthly first tranche quota as if it were a daily quota for some vague reason. Then you go on to ignore all the deductions that are specified in the document. For clarity, this is what the CPR document actually says about the IPSC ...

The IPSC for the Goudron Field allows for LGO to receive a service fee as compensation for
operating the field, which is calculated in the following way:

Service Fee = Market Value – Royalty – Notional Overriding Royalty – Facilitation Fee – License Fee – Miscellaneous Deductions

The Market Value is the value of the oil delivered to Petrotrin not including the first tranche.

The following burdens are applicable to this field based on the details of the IPSC:

. First tranche oil (1,221 bbl/month) is given directly to Petrotrin and LGO received $9/bbl as a handling fee; this is scheduled to end in November 2019

. 12.5 percent royalty is applied to all oil revenue

. Notional overriding royalty (NORR) that fluctuates according to the following schedule:

Market value ($/bbl) Base NORR (%) Enhanced NORR (%)
=10.00 7.0 4.0
10.01 - 20.00 10.0 5.0
20.01 - 30.00 12.0 6.0
30.01 – 40.00 17.5 9.0
40.01 – 50.00 19.5 10.0
50.01 – 90.00 23.0 17.0
90.01 – 120.00 27.0 18.0
120.01 – 140.00 30.0 19.0
140.01 – 200.00 32.0 20.0

The base NORR is applicable to all production beyond the first tranche up to 4,590 bbl per month. The enhanced NORR is applicable to all production beyond the base.

. A fee of $1.25/bbl of production to cover abandonment costs as all wells and facilities will remain the property of Petrotrin.

. Supplemental Petroleum Tax of 18 percent is paid when the oil price is greater than $50/bbl.

. Facilitation fee is paid on all oil, excluding the first tranche, at a cost of 2.70/bbl escalating at five percent per year.

. The following license fees are to be paid to Petrotrin:

Fee type Fee amount Escalation

License rent $4.25/ha Escalated at 6% per year

Surface rental $6.25/ha Escalated at 6% per year

Training fee $7,360 Escalated at 6% per year

R&D fee $7,360 Escalated at 6% per year

Scholarship fee $50,000 No escalation

You are fixated on your fag packet revenue calculation which seems to ignore the full IPSC calculation. Presumably you do not like to consider costs as being relevant to your argument.

Please note that some fees are escalated by a percentage

I see you're still attention seeking 'arry. Like all rampers you focus solely on fag packet revenue calculations but there's never any mention of costs. Did you watch the first 4 minutes of the AGM presentation video where Leo and Gordon reflected on the cost implications of chasing increased production at Goudron? Correct me if I'm wrong but I believe they said that when they had 3 rigs on the go at Goudron they ran the numbers and found that they were making nothing from the oil extracted. I expect they have learned a valuable lesson but that seems to imply there's a lid on what can be achieved otherwise costs outweight income.

By all means discuss financials but don't focus solely on revenue. A company that is loss making at the corporate level may well be operationally cash flow positive but it will still need to find alternative sources of income simply to survive let alone grow.

'arry - I think your grasp of the IPSC is akin to your understanding of the BNPP Oil Swap agreement that you championed in the past.

OPPOSITION whip David Lee said oil prices have plummeted since the budget was passed based on US$65 per barrel, and asked what the Government will do about a likely shortfall in its projected revenues. The West Texas Intermediary (WTI) oil price yesterday was US$46, compared to US$70 when the budget was read.

“In the last three months there has been a drastic decline. It’s very volatile. “Mr Imbert is way off his revenue figures,” Lee said, saying he was waiting to hear if the Finance Minister will adjust his budget.

“There’s a lot of volatility and even the output from the United States is increasing daily. They can be an exporter of oil, and are self sufficient.

https://newsday.co.tt/2018/12/28/lee-what-turnaround-economy-in-reverse/

There will likely be a knock on effect to CERP if the Trinidad economy falters in 2019.

Outlook 2019

Finance Minister Colm Imbert was clear in both his mid-year budget review in May and his national budget presentation for 2019 that the country isn’t yet out of the woods. Oil prices keep tumbling as the US, for the first time in 75 years, became a net exporter of oil as shale oil production booms.

The budget was predicated on an oil price of US$65 per barrel, but at the time of this writing it was just under US$46 per barrel.

Despite TT being primarily driven by natural gas, oil revenue still contributes five per cent to the country’s gross domestic product. It will also affect the profitability of the new exploration and production company formed from Petrotrin’s exploration and production assets, Heritage Petroleum, whose main product will be crude oil. Now that the refinery is shut down, the country will also have to import fuel, which will be comparatively more expensive, especially since the government is already moving away from the fuel subsidy.

And in 2019, the full impact of nearly one per cent of the labour force losing their jobs almost simultaneously will have been properly measured – not to mention the trickle-down effect on support services.

There’s also likely to be a renewed effort to pass tax compliance laws in order to stay alive on the international financial scene.

TT will be facing a whole host of new challenges in the new year – as well as a slew of the same.

It remains to be seen whether the “turnaround” can take the country along a new path or whether it's just a U-turn down the same old road.

https://newsday.co.tt/2018/12/27/turbulent-year/

"The problem with this world is the intelligent people are full of doubts, while the stupid are full of confidence."

Charles Bukowski

I'm expecting a disappointing update when it finally arrives. Goudron on it's own is not viable in my opinion as the wells require constant workovers to maintain production. The other fields may similarly be afflicted.

Imagine if CERP hadn't consolidated in 2017.

The current share price would be 0.1475p and there would be 16,617,623,840 shares in issue.

If the sp continues to fall there will be a threshold below which it would be difficult for institutional investors to justify maintaining an interest in the company. If that threshold were to be reached then another consolidation might be necessary.

Just speculation but food for thought nevertheless.

* trying

Why should I tell you anything 'arry? I'm happy to watch you flounder around tring to impress Irene.

HH - do you know what qualifies as 'allowable capex' ? Are you aware of any minimum work program that CERP has to achieve in 2018/2019 under the terms of the Goudron IPSC and any other IPSC that CERP has acquired?