Member Info for LayLadyLay

in4cedros - The prolific North Soldado Field discovered in 1961, has proven to date to be the only large oilfield found in the Caroni sub-basin. What similarities does North Soldado have with the geology of SWP, that leads you to draw comparison 'arry? I suggest you simply found the most prolific field in Trinidad, ignored that it is offshore, and have no real basis in suggesting that a similar field can be found onshore in the SWP.

Why do you think the big oil has been found offshore at a greater cost of exploration than would be the case onshore 'arry? Why do you think the SWP has not yielded any significant finds to date if it is an obvious candidate for exploration? Why hasn't an oil major jumped all over the SWP already? What are they missing?, Perhaps they have already concluded that the chance of success is very low? This leads me to suspect that CERP knows this but as an oil minnow is taking a chance on a one in a million find. That seems an unlikely outcome to me but never say never and as they say on the lottery, you have to be in it to win it.

This is not a deramp despite how it will look to you. Keep your feet on the ground and by all means hope for big things but temper that hope with realistic expectation.

The above is my opinion and not investment advice. Do your own research. Good luck.

This reminds me so much of 2015 when most holders kept trying to catch a falling knife as the sp sank ever lower. As I said at 1.3p in old money (equivalent to 26p in todays post consolidated currency), is this a good time to buy or a good time to sell?

Country of residence Portugal

https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/officers/7zs44O0EovDBT-3CDivyo4fWQkU/appointments

Emily - I'm sure that MJ has set his own personal limits on the extent to which he is prepared to put his capital at risk. Therefore, you can't simply assume he will continue buying up stock ad infinitum even at these so called low prices.

Where would the sp be sitting if MJ hadn't almost single handedly propped it up for the last few weeks? What will happen if he decides enough is enough and stopps accumulating against the sellers?

Maybe a bit of both Irene.

Irene - I wonder if the BoD has identified Bick Mick as a potential cash cow to help keep the ship afloat if it hits stormy weather?

in4cedros aka 'arrynillson gets excited about another jam tomorrow project. It's a project in planning and there are no guarantees that anticipated 'initial' flow rate will meet expectations. Is it any wonder that so many people rush in and find themselves long term spiked? I wonder if 'arry has any shares in either CERP or PRD? What's your average 'arry? Are you in profit yet?

'arry - in your opinion would a 5% increase in production justify the cost of the project?

'arry - "Stockable - the Predator presentation also has pictures so I think you'll like it!"

Is that why you like it 'arry?

'arry is like a dog with a bone when he finds something he can rant about. He defended the BNPP oil swap deal until the bitter end then switched sides when it all went wrong. He thought that Spain was a valuable asset and now he likes the sound of Predator. I think he's upset at not being able to join the sticky fingers club which casts some doubt on him being a holder.

I'm beginning to wonder if in4cedros works for the Post Office as he regularly advertises Post Office accounts both here and as his alterego arrynillson on the other forum.

By the way arry, I didn't say you were quoting me I said you were misquoting me by attributing something to me that I had never said.

Heritage Petroleum Company Ltd, established to take over Petrotrin’s exploration and production business, also sent out a release yesterday, its first official day, to say it was investigating “acts of sabotage” on one of its lines in Grand Reviere, Rancho Quemado on Friday. A 2.7-inch flow line was visibly severed and about five barrels of oil spilled. The spill was contained in an area of about 20 feet and there was no environmental damage. The line has since been repaired and about 80 per cent of the oil recovered. The company said it was working with the authorities and plans to ensure those responsible are prosecuted.

https://newsday.co.tt/2018/12/02/petrotrin-settles-debts-fights-sabotage/

in4cedros - up to your old tricks of misquoting me.

I wrote " in the meantime hope that waterflood yields some positive results, something which is far from certain".

Your respone being " I'm pleased you appreciate that water flood results could give a significant steady boost to production". That's not what I said is it?

Leo Koot at the investor presentation on 12 October 2018 ...

"Still learning. Not everything is going the way we want it. One of the key learning in Goudron is the faster we run the less progress we make. The middle of the year we were close to 700 barrels of production just from Goudron. We had three rigs on the go, we had two big pumps going, so we had a lot of activity in the field and everyone was very fired up but then when we looked at the balance sheet and the numbers, the last barrels of oil we produced we didn't make a penny. So we were spending too much money on getting the extra barrels out of the ground."

4' 20" onwards

https://www.brrmedia.co.uk/broadcasts/5bbe181a269b0c1ded18979b/columbus-energy-resources-investor-presentation

My take has always been that to maintain production at Goudron requires constant well intervention/maintenance. This is capital intensive and there is a fine line between maintaining/increasing production and the cost of doing so if Goudron is to be operationally cash flow positive. It would seem there is an economic limitation capping Goudron production. As wells continue to decline the economics will become less attractive and this is why, in my opinion, CERP has to find alternative production elsewhere to offset against a declining Goudron and in the meantime hope that waterflood yields some positive results, something which is far from certain.

"it's a great stock to buy at these low levels and there has been a seller being put through at 3.17p. If that has all been done now, then share price should head back to 4.5p when Leo taps out his next RNS which says 1000bopd achieved."

1000 bopd is all well and good if it's achieved but do you think that costs have risen since the acquisition of Steeldrum? More staff? Moving to a combined office in Trinidad? Operating costs? Same or higher as before the deal was struck? Has Petrotrin given consent yet by the way?

Chesh - the list is pointless if you and others such as in4cedros/arrynillson are not full members of the sticky fingers club. How else can we be sure you are a holder? You'll miss out if Peter issues members with a membership pack and starts sending out newsletters. This could catch on. It could rival ShareProphet :)

in4cedros is arrynillson on the other board.

Crude oil’s importance to the TT economy is now second to natural gas, but its contribution is by no means miniscule — estimated to be 6.8 per cent of GDP in 2018 — and so the country should at least be monitoring current volatility in the international market.

Prices have plummeted nearly 30 per cent since October 3, where their lofty US$76 per barrel heights seemed a comfortable distance from the US$65 per barrel pegged in the national budget. Now, with prices around US$54, it’s hard not to wonder if that might have been an over-confident consideration.

“Can one project the price of oil? At the Central Bank, we tend to be very conservative. We don’t believe the good times will last and oil prices will go up forever, but we have been wrong before. I can’t say if that decision (by the Finance Minister) was appropriate—it did seem so at the time, but you don’t build your future on continuous increases,” Central Bank governor Alvin Hillaire said at the bank’s recent Monetary Policy Report launch.

To be fair, Finance Minister Colm Imbert’s projection was based on an international projection that had, since the beginning of the year, been trending upward, well above the US$52 per barrel that last year’s budget had been pegged on. And while there are several variables still to consider, including output, an oil price 20 per cent lower than budgeted will inevitably have an impact on the projected expenditure for 2019, not the least adding strain to the deficit.

Oil prices will also inevitably influence the operations of new state entity, Heritage Petroleum, whose business is exploration and production (E&P). Heritage will acquire Petrotrin’s E&P assets, and the company’s chairman Wilfred Espinet (also chairman of Petrotrin), has said the company should not have any problem selling its product on the international market because oil is a marketable and valuable commodity. Nevertheless, the state company is the country’s biggest producer of oil—nearly 60 per cent—but its assets are among some of the most mature fields in production.

According to the 2018 Review of the Economy, crude and condensate output “continued to be hampered by the natural decline in output from mature fields, coupled with the lack of additional output from new sources and the adverse effects of aging infrastructure.”

https://newsday.co.tt/2018/11/22/tt-budget-on-oil-price-swing/

in4cedros - " I'm liking the steady progression and the likelihood that the business will be profitable soon, ignoring probable CapEx costs for production increasing projects on multiple fronts that most shareholders support "

I'm not sure how you can be talking about profitability if you are ignoring costs. Is that how you came to the conclusion that the BNPP oil swap deal was affordable? You insisted it was and look at how quickly LGO went into default. Irene is right, you don't have a good track record of predictions.