Member Info for latpulldown

I track a barometer cinema regularly and there have been a lot of cinema tickets sold across the board over the Easter holidays and into this extended BH weekend. Sonic the Hedgehog 2 and The Bad Guys have been selling strongly and so has The Lost City, Operation Mincemeat and Fantastic Beats the Secrets of Dumbledore.

Saw the latter myself with family and really enjoyed it.

Downton Abbey probably next out of curiosity for me on or just after the 29th April.

Then a couple of A-list films next on the family watchlist - Dr Strange and the Multiverse of Madness (Marvel) and Top Gun Maverick.

I think the sinking of this Flagship vessel the Moskva, the biggest Russia had in the Black Seea puts to bed any thoughts of Odessa falling or access to ports being prevented in the longer term. (previous deramper thread on here)

Won't be getting replaced any time soon either as all access to the Black Sea (and Sea of Azov) is through a narrow straight of water called the Dardanelles. Any passage in times of war is solely controlled by Turkey.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Ukraine-war/Turkey-s-grip-on-Black-Sea-access-hinders-Russia-after-Moskva-sinking

I have them on Filter NH. One of the red noses.

The two points that stood out for me from a battlefield perspective which I didn't know or hadn't thought about.

*"Spring thaw" is coming. That weather factor. Invasion launched in minus degress with frozen terrain and good for heavy armour. But now the potential for Rain, mud, mist. Also arguably less western dependency on Russian gas and oil and inflow of funds?

*That supposed regrouping and build up of the legions in the East actually only seems to be half of what it was previously (65 against 130 BG's)

At what point the does it become a victory? or not?

Meanwhile don't forget all these still ongoing in the background for any lengthened conflict

* Sanctions Russia
* Sanctions Oligarchs
* Sanctions Key Individuals, associates and family members
* Western companies withdrawing
* Nato bolstering its Eastern flank presence permanently
* Finland, Sweden, Bosnia and Kosova expediting plans to join Nato.
* International unity and condemnation
* Diplomatic expulsions (persona non grata)
* War crimes evidence being amassed.

Somebody needs to bring them to the table to prevent any further senseless loss of life and economic damage.

No winners in war and may peace prevail.

I doubt personally it would be on his top 10 of holiday destinations. Western sanctions hit harder for it is hard to contrast Siberia with say Florida or the Med imho. Tit for tat.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10724023/Putin-BANS-Boris-Russia.html

At what point does it not become a "win" for Putin to sell to the Russian people. All that western re-arming going on with increasing sophistication in the background also.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/analysts-say-looming-battle-for-donbas-will-prove-decisive-in-russias-war-on-ukraine-090033711.html

Geographically speaking it is Turkey that holds the key to accessing the Black Sea (and the Sea of Azov thereafter) as it can only be done through a narrow straight of waterway called the Dardanelles, through which Turkey controls the access.

In times of "War" Turkey has the absolute right to close it off which it appears to have done.

Whats left in the Black Sea lets you see that the Ukranians in sinking the Moskva took out the largest, and main command and control ship, of that battle group of 5 or 6 ships. All remaining ships are about half the size so it is a Big dent in that fighting capability and just shows how vulnerable those remaining vessels are. Neptune missiles have a range of 300km or 185 miles.

The Moskva cannot be replaced in the Black Sea.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Ukraine-war/Turkey-s-grip-on-Black-Sea-access-hinders-Russia-after-Moskva-sinking

My sincere hope out of all of this is that with the assault on Kiev having failed, and now the Black Sea situation as it is that Putin reassess es his objectives going forward and it leads us back to the negotiating table.

Pearls the share price was played and manipulated down into the close. That is what you were watching. Market makers preying for stock and taking out limit orders or for me more more likely shorters just flash crashing and manipulating it down.

It would have been far better just to let the employees sell singularly if they had wished rather than bulking it into a placing (and announcing it - with over 2 weeks of a timeframe until it happens). Others have done it here when first lock ins got lifted but if I remember correctly it was announced after market close and with the result the very next morning. Limits the opportunity to manipulate.

Any nomad that approved and signed that off should imho be taking a hike.

Low volume day thats what it is.

Thanks for popping that up Redmoor so essentially the POG RNS on Friday isnon- applicable to POLY as things stand.

5% to be worked back into the price at some point and another entry point gifted prior to next trading update.

Point 3. Headache also btw of 4 countries expediting plans re joining Nato. 2 of those, Sweden and Finland being directly bordering and on Russia's doorstep.

International market price of gold btw the last few days was $1970 - $1980.

Not far off 5 year highs of $2020.

Pb I don't know how wrong one post can get it. Wrong on Point 1, Wrong on point 2 and highly likely wrong on point 3. Read the RNS from the end of March which started the spike in the share price to 404p. Further trading update coming on the 25th April.

" Sales of bullion and concentrate from Kazakhstan continue as usual. In Russia, sales of gold and silver concentrates continue normally to East Asia and Kazakhstan. Shipments have been temporarily impacted by the change of freight and logistics service providers, which is likely to result in higher costs. Sales of gold bullion in Russia have been restored to new counterparties on terms consistent with those received earlier. Domestic demand for gold is boosted by local retail investment. The recent Central Bank of Russia statement that the bank will buy gold from commercial banks at a fixed price of RUB 5,000/g (approx. US$ 1,800/oz at the time of the writing) is not expected to affect Group's sales price materially as gold continues to be sold at global market price, both for exports and to satisfy physical retail demand.
Liquidity & net debt

Net debt increased to US$ 1.94 billion as of 29 March (31 December 2021: US$ 1.65 billion) mainly driven by seasonal working capital increase and accelerated procurement. 94% of the total debt is denominated in US dollars. The Group has approx. US$ 0.4 bn in cash and cash equivalents deposited with non-sanctioned financial institutions. In addition, the Company maintains US$ 0.5 billion of undrawn credit lines from non-sanctioned Russian financial institutions, while additional liquidity is expected to become available in Q2 2022 as banks gradually re-open lending. Lending from Russian banks is available in RUB only. RUB interest rates are 23-25% on average following Central Bank's base rate increase to 20%. The Group is utilising these facilities occasionally for short-term working capital financing.

Point 1. The serviceability of the debt is what is important, at western rates of interest - (Libor rate + X%) $250M dollars saved from the decision to postpone the dividend leaving $400M dollars intact + the further credit line with non-sanctioned banks.

Point 2. Not just selling to any supposed lender of last resort. Quite clearly states to meet retail demand in Russia and also to the Far East and Khazakstan as well. Sales o/s Russia will attain market rate in $ dollars.

Point 3. Doubtful the war could go on for years. Didn't succeed at Kiev, 20K dead including 40 senior commanders, Flagship of the Black Sea Fleet now at the bottom of the Black Sea, western re-arming with more sophisticated kit and direct intelligence assistance now, Ukranian resilience and tactics, Poor Russian morale, Questionable functionality of any replacements (Conscripts, Dads Army retirees, Syrian), Sanctions Russia, Sanctions Oligarchs, Persona non grata expulsions, international condemnation, pariah state, war crimes...

Comprehensive on this. make your own mind up

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10720215/Russias-Black-Sea-flagship-Moskva-SUNK-Moscows-defence-agency-admits.html

fp1989 I read the same RNS as you have done and the query you have just posted and I don't think you can jump to that conclusion without further information. It is though probably a valid question to pen for Capital Markets Day.

You are right that it saves around $250M from what (from the same RNS) is $400M cash and equivalents and an available $500M credit line. That I have in my own mind as sufficient to cover any annaul interest payments on the debt mentioned which would be at significantly lower percentages. (Normally at Libor rate + X %)

The bit you seem to have missed out the middle where you put the . ...
"The Group has approx. US$ 0.4 bn in cash and cash equivalents deposited with non-sanctioned financial institutions. In addition, the Company maintains US$ 0.5 billion of undrawn credit lines from non-sanctioned Russian financial institutions, while additional liquidity is expected to become available in Q2 2022 as banks gradually re-open lending."

As for Rubles I would have thought that given the contents of the same RNS we would be generating more than enough from continuing operations and revenues received to cover this (and with a surplus)

What would be handy to know is if any of our precious metals that get sold through Khazakstan (48% of 2021 revenues) get paid for in US dollars, or is it the Khazakstani currency (Tenge). I suspect Dollars.

There may be a bit more detail in the trading update on the 25th April.

"US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said that the way the Moskva saga “has unfolded is a big blow to Russia”.

US officials have said it is still unclear what caused a blast onboard. But Sullivan said it has forced Moscow to choose between two stories. “One story is that it was just incompetence, and the other is that they came under attack. And neither is a particularly good outcome for them,” Sullivan said at the Economic Club of Washington, DC.

“Only the loss of a ballistic missile submarine or the Kutznetsov [Russia’s lone aircraft carrier] would inflict a more serious blow to Russian morale and the navy’s reputation with the Russian public,” said Carl Schuster, the former director of operations at the US Pacific Command’s Joint Intelligence Center."

Anybody see a contradiction here

"Russia’s Moskva missile cruiser sank in a “stormy sea” while being towed, the Russian defence ministry said in a statement.

“The cruiser ship Moskva lost its stability when it was towed to the port because of the damage to the ship’s hull that it received during the fire from the detonation of ammunition. In stormy sea conditions, the ship sank”

Russia and Ukraine have conflicting accounts of what happened to the cruiser, with Ukraine claiming it began to sink after it was hit by Ukrainian Neptune anti-ship missiles, and Russia saying a fire on board caused munitions to explode."

versus this,

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-moves-ships-safer-location-ukraine-missile-attack-1698097?piano_t=1

woodvalese23, this is an ever changing landscape on the battlefield for the Donbas region and at sea what with western re-arming and the ever increasing sophistication of the weaponry being supplied. Harpoon anti ship missiles, switchblade drones, heavy artillery, armour, helicopters now, sophisticated anti air and other missile systems.

20,000 Russian troop losses to date, another Colonel's death just reported today on top of countless other colonels and 7 generals - 40 now in total, and now the sinking of this Flagship of the Black Sea. These just highlight how infallible the Russians are.

Please tell me that what is being sent to the Donbas by Russia is more than Conscripts, Dads Army recruits and Syrians. I am not oblivious to Ukranian losses but if this is the case then imho these individuals will just literally become cannon fodder.

I really do hope that some come to their senses and prevent any further loss of life.

https://www.lindaikejisblog.com/2022/4/russia-loses-its-40th-high-ranking-officer-as-another-lieutenant-colonel-is-killed-in-ukraine.html

Reports sunk also - after extensive damage.

https://coffeeordie.com/russian-warship-burning/

I think you are right CR888 that it will rise afterwards but the problem is that between now and then it has handed the initiative here to shorters and the market makers. Shorters can borrow shares and then they can sell them into the market. Two more weeks to do the same yet. Then the shorter participates in the accelerated bookbuild and buys the shares back having banked their profit. Hard working employees will get shafted.

Hopefully DARK have retained some good newsflow in the pipeline to spike the price.

The share price today says they really should know better than this.

Has undone all the recent good work.