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That man Erdogan again. Seems pretty confident in what he's saying today.

Aiming for a ceasefire first and then lasting peace and thinks it possible whilst maintaining Ukranian sovereignty.

Not the dead end everyone had been led to believe as online talks continue.

"Despite negative developments, online talks between the parties continue, Erdogan noted, adding: "Both sides also say they are in favor of advancing the talks in Istanbul."

Watch for a ceasefire and Happy holding or not.

https://www.yenisafak.com/en/news/erdogan-vows-continued-efforts-for-cease-fire-in-ukraine-war-then-lasting-peace-3594013

The share price of Poly prior to this invasion / special operation was £12.00.

It is openly stated that 48% of 2021 revenues were generated from Khazakstan.

So £3.00 is a highly conservative estimate of their worth.

It's more to do with making sure Putin doesn't win at all in Ukraine. Kiev and the country haven't fallen so that part has been achieved.

Now the focus is in ensuring that any offensive on the Eastern Donbas doesn't succeed, or if it does it is only limited success.

Might be Marioupal and call it a day as its a near flattened city that will need rebuilt and mear empty. The problem with seizing (or stealing) othet towns and cities is that you may make that claim having strutted down the main street in your tank and occupying the Mayors desk , but do you really have the minds and will of the citizens within. Tyrant or not that point won't have escaped Putin and will require the negotiation side to sort it out, possibly with a vote or referendum. Still prone to counter offensives and resistance as well.

"Seized cities" at this juncture are therefore more prone to being bargaining chips and there are a couple of much bigger cities in the Donbas to come where the Ukranians are entrenched and fortified.

Dmytro Kuleba
@DmytroKuleba·
5h
Ukraine government official
Met my Bulgarian counterpart @TGenchovskaMFA in Sofia today. Grateful to the people of Bulgaria for embracing Ukrainians fleeing Russian aggression. We discussed further steps to restore peace in Ukraine, strengthen bilateral cooperation, and advance Ukraine’s EU membership.

It won't matter for they have had plenty time to pre-plan and stock with food for any eventuality. Many defenders also trained up as well. Before the retreat from Kiev the mayor there (Klitchko) blatantly said they had over a months food for everyone.

They wont use the sea (anti ship missiles, mines on the beach and well established defences. They won't parachute in as its cannon fodder so it would be the hard slog and sieges only work if unprepared. Too big a commitment and simply not enough military staff to go round.

just imho

Will we finish evens? That is the question.

Lets be honest about it. There hasn't been any material change to the business since the Thursday before Easter and we have an imminent Q1 update to look forward to, Investors Day and a fair chance of a peace talks back on the table.

GL with your interpretation and whatever you choose. Hoping for some good updates next week with Q1 results and Investors day to reassure the doubters. Peace talks pop up again as being rekindled then all the merrier.

Newdealz, Odessa I think is all fortressed up like Kiev as they have had plenty of time to prepare, and after the sinking of the Flagship Moskva forget any sea-borne angle to that one. I think you might be right on Marioupol although wouldn't rule out the Ukranians taking back Kherson at some point.

Next stage if you can call it that will achieve very little. Better to get back to the negotiating table and thrash out a deal for everyone's sake.

I just don't think that is the objective jeremy although Putin seems to be making them up objectives to fit as things progress. When they started they had 130 battle Groups (BTG). For the East that then went down to only 65 regrouped and possibly 11 more now.

The attrition rate for military fatalities, injured and those having to be taken out the game to maintain a hold on any town, city or territory would be so high on what you say that by the time they got to Kiev they would be lucky to have enough to encircle an egg cup.

Happy to be proved wrong.

The best hope for all is peace and I applaud President Erdogan for being the one making the effort to rekindle peace talks.

Jeremy my dear, You do realise that in taking any of these places you mention you do need to keep hold of them so will have to sacrifice a retaining number from those which the Ukranians haven't already killed or injured.

Finite pot of staff and far too big a country to achieve what you suggest, hence shy they have already withdrawn from Kiev once. NIL chance of taking it imho

Seems to be some sound rumblings again on this with President Erdogan of Turkey at the forefront.
https://news.am/eng/news/697300.html

Been building towards it imho

Erdogan spoke with the Austrian Chancellor just a few days ago after the Austrian Chancellor visited both Zelenski and Putin on consecutive days.
https://www.dailysabah.com/politics/diplomacy/erdogan-austrias-nehammer-discuss-ukraine-russia-war

Weekend news of Abramovich having visited Kiev
https://www.forbes.com/sites/anna******/2022/04/16/roman-abramovich-reportedly-travels-to-ukraine-in-bid-to-revive-peace-talks-with-russia/?sh=68222b222fc7

Erdogan in a phone call with Putin yesterday.
https://news.am/eng/news/697109.html

Then the first post above. Calls to both planned.

It's where they are incorporated and registered.

You even posted it yourself earlier.

Generally with shares you can get a feel for what is happening.

Here I can honestly say that at the minute I have absolutely no idea. share price seems to be up, down and all over the place.

There was an impasse last week after the atrocities of Bucha and then there was the Moskva sinking. New offensive launched.

Nehammer visits both in between. Erdogan speaks to Neehammer afterwards. Erdogan has a lengthy conversation yesterday with VP which the Kremlin report on. Ukranian Forein Minister in Bulgaria looking to find ways at a peaceful solution reported on today. Now Erdogan to be putting calls in to both.

It's Erdogan that hold the key to a peaceful resolution and I'll be surprised if negotiations aren't back up and running by the end of the week. Just my honest assessment of things.

Erdogan to have calls with both Putin and Zelenski

https://news.am/eng/news/697300.html

Erdogan to "have" phone talks with both Zelenski and Putin

I think you can see where this might be heading.

With both Zelenski and Putin

https://news.am/eng/news/697300.html

It's good news for their is clearly a project in the offing.

Confidentiality I respect but it just needed a little bit more detail

The market makers can shift this 20 points in a flash and consecutively (as you may find out next week).

*Ukraine needs / wants peace to avoid anymore unnecessary fatalities and casualties.

*Russia needs peace to get sanctions lifted. 2nd May they should be defaulting on their Sovereign debt.

Both sides now a bit more conciliatory again in their rhetoric. (It's on the thread)

You'll probably find most of your detractors on here today are holding on Friday.

Dyor and Talks back on. They will all be holding.

Dmytro Kuleba
@DmytroKuleba
·
4h

Ukraine government official
Tasked by President
@ZelenskyyUa
with seeking steps to win peace in Ukraine, I arrived in Sofia to meet with the Bulgarian leadership. Bulgaria is our friend and partner within the EU and bilaterally. We also feel the support of the people of Bulgaria at this critical time