Member Info for largey00

Bankrupty the RNSs do state its a min 19/1 so could be higher 100/1 anything but again thats just speculation...

ultimately Amigo now need to turn their attentions to Investors
(Shareholders and IIs as without them they cant raise any money let alone £15m for the SOA)

The RNS states on 6th Dec the following:
While details of an equity raise to partly fund a return to new lending have not yet been finalised, the £15m contribution to the Scheme is expected to be funded from an equity raise and new capital commitments of between £120m and £300m, of which it is hoped to raise a minimum of £70m in new equity. It is required that the new equity raise must be completed within a year of the sanction of the Scheme by the Court.

It doesnt mean that all of the funds will be raised purely from a RI

I agree the RI of some form will occur... but i dont believe £300m will be expected to be raised by a RI

the court outcome was almost expected, FCA wasnt objecting, Creditors voted in favour, Court had previously seen it and the complaints ombudsman FOS voted for it... it really would have been a shock for it to have failed.

every RNS quite rightly has been Creditor focused with doom and insolvency stamped all over it...
Now SOA is approved (awaiting full confirmation) Amigo need to turn to investors so i expect the RNSs to be coming out over the next 3 months heavily focused on the business going forward and expectations along with FCA approving lending
That will all see an up tick in SP... personally i would prefer a higher SP as this gives Amigo the opportunity to raise more funds potentially offer a discount on the RI... there are far more benefits for the higher SP from the BOD and shareholders perspective in my eyes

Burnsey the RI has a number of factors and to try and second guess it is very difficult almost pointless at present...

Facts that we know:
19/1 if a RI is done dilution will occur at 19/1 (i personally am working on the basis this will happen)
Amigo need to raise funds - at least £15m for SOA and potentially up to £300m (i dont believe that will all come from a RI)
Amigo can lend up to £35m within 9 months once FCA approve Amigo to commence lending
An equity raise will be needed within 12months of the SOA sanction (Likely RI)

If the RI price is low that in turn means the value they raise is less (min £15m is needed)
If the RI price is higher due to SP increase... this allows people to sell out, sell a portion and utilise the RI meaning they arent diluted

Ultimately the timeline looks something like: (Im sure you may be able to think of other points that will need to happen)
FCA to approve lending
Amigo to:
launch new products and start to lend generating new profit
Issue monthly/qtrly updates on new lending and profit potential
Initiate Equity raise (RI 19/1)

If it happens in that order and theres no guarantees that it will the SP would be higher than 6.6p meaning the RI would be higher and generate more than £15m

@truthfactory... your other post is priceless about Morse... "probably the same issues as Amigo"
that right there is speculation your honour :) get out lol

@truthfactory thats your opinion...
Mainstream banks wont lend to them because they have typically paid late or defaulted so as a business model a company taking on those types of clients will need to charge more to safeguard against bad debt to provide a service that is needed by millions...
you may say daylight robbery, immoral, scandalous etc but it is typically the customers that have put them in that situation not to be able to use mainstream banks.

Also more to the point you are complaining yet dont know what the new products are of Amigo... so why dont you just wait and find out instead of just spouting its not fair! be factual and fair in your views...

@truthfactory that is your opinion and everyone is entitled to theirs...

Wonga rates? 1509% Amigo offer rates at 49% youre comparing apples and pears

regarding litigation on this type of lending is endemic? Amigo is offering loans at a similar rate to most peoples overdraft charges... its not the lending product that was the issue it was the process that wasnt followed... we would expect Amigo to get that right going forward... but you never know and a process not being followed can happen in any business...

@truthfactory come on if you are going to throw out comparisons of Morses... share what the comparisons are? are they doing a RI and cant raise the fund? are they doing an SOA? is their business profitable or not if not why is that the same margins as Amigo etc... come on you have just thrown out a sub prime lender that has said they arent releasing their full year results in may and will now do so no later than 26th August hence they have dropped in SP by 30% today...

At least be factual if you are negative and the same for positive ramps :)

@craignews just check your understanding of JPM they dont own 15% if anything... have a look at the RNS dated: Thu, 9th Dec 2021 shows they are below the threshold.

currently no IIs invested in Amigo as we know it (for me there is a buyer for every seller 22m volume yesterday so 11m shares purchased thats a lot for retail investors speculation i know but look at the charts on a 5min breakdown with volume and youll see interesting buy patterns)

@red_inky im sorry but why do you suggest "you dont think we will get much out of this in the next 3-6months" ? The focus is now on shareholders for Amigo and restarting lending... the next 3-6 months will be a dam sight busier thank the last 12 months and the RNSs to follow will be positive not insolvency as stated in the last 12 months!

As for saying youve watched it drop all day... its currently 7.45p up 16%

The amount of extra shares is due to the FCA guidance that shareholders need to take a hit... (I believe the RNS said industry market standard) hence i do think we will see a dilution of 19/1 but we wont know what the RI is (ie what price is it set at what discount will be offered, if its fully backed if shareholders dont take up the rights etc)

the RI will only be announced after lending has been resumed and we have an understanding of profit potential... lets be clear GJ did say at court in SOA 1 that a RI would have been required to fund new lending what he didnt want to do was a RI based on the SOA being approved as there would be no business to base the RI against... in essence GJ is doing a RI based exactly on what he said in court for SOA1

Suffer... come on... if you are going to answer it give some real facts...
They can lend up to £35m they dont need to do a RI to lend that! (they have the remaining amount of securitisation facility) this will be evidenced within the qtr results due shortly
Why would the FCA give a huge fine that would totally derail the SOA being completed and stop creditors getting the maximum amount of redress

Come on... lets be clear when answering a question

@Franky yes you are right the ICC agreed to Amigo to start lending up to £35m once FCA approve Amgo meet regulatory standards.

Totally agree that is a soft launch to try the new products out and give an understanding of the potential of the business... this is why the RI will only occur towards the end of the year beginning of next year.

Your final point regarding cheap shares... today at 7p is still cheap as i believe the price at RI will be higher than that... just to be clear im not saying the RI will be 19x7p :) im just stating that when they release the RNS to say the RI will be voted on the SP at that time will be way above 7p

Sorry for the lengthy response but just my view:
Look at the chart with the Volume, you can see what is happening and has been for a few weeks... Downward pressure with sales and then spikes of Buy Volume (typically signs of orders being filled) if thats the case then we should be expecting TR1s shortly... 3% = 14.25m shares
The volume of sales as the SP dropped back to 7p dried up which will start to mean that if there is IIs buying in then the price will rise until the next tranche of sale prices are triggered...

So why would you sell today on the day after the court approved the SOA?
Fear of Dilution?
Why fear the dilution?
The SP is 7p today people was saying on here that the RI will be done the day after the sanction of the SOA... I said that was utter rubbish and appears to be true!
The RNS for the sanction of the SOA also stated relending in the RNS before the mention of equity raise...
so you have a period of time within 12 months before the RI is voted on and only at that point will we understand the cost of the dilution (i expect the dilution to be 19/1) but that is irrelevant its the cost at which the RI is placed at and as someone mentioned earlier it will need to be attractive to shareholders.

ultimately today the company is worth £33m
If the company starts to relend in the current economic environment what is the potential value?
Its first year of trading on the stock market it was consistently valued above £2 per share with a Market value of £950m
so even if we said it has the potential to be a third of that value going forward thats 66p per share
(thats on todays share structure) yes a RI will be required but that also has to be attractive to shareholders which also = potential!

DYOR but personally this has great potential

Frankly i do agree with what you are saying

The one thing i think changes is that at the moment the focus is on SOA being approved without that there is no business effectively.

Once SOA is approved the attention turns to shareholders...
without shareholders agreeing to RI there is no solution...

For Shareholders to agree they will require:
Potential Profit of the new business model
SP to improve to show potential returns on investment
RI to have a shareholder incentive to smooth the 19/1

All of this will be done via positive RNS statements that i expect to start happening within the first 6months of SOA being approved

Investor... do you want to expand on that?

at least that biglippy

id expect within 1-2months they launch new products and FCA approve lending... this gives the chance of at least 1q possibly 2q results to show potential of the business

Suffer... why would the court reject a proposal to give redress to creditors and resolve an issue that has been going on for nearly 2 years...

oh by the way,
The regulator isnt objecting
The Complaints ombudsman (FOS) agreed it
The Independent Creditors Committee agreed it
88% of creditors that responded agreed to it

There would have to be some glaring legal issue with the SOA that would result in the court objecting... of which the court have already seen the SOA to approve creditors to vote on it.

There is absolutely no way that Amigo will do a RI straight after SOA being approved... Read the SOA it gives you enough detail to understand this... everyone is entitled to their own opinion but do your own research at the very least dont take peoples words for it on here ( i include mine in that statement as well)

Freekick,

This is the thing:
£70m @ 0.78p (Not 78p just to be clear) :) multiply that by 19 = 14.82p per share that you own.
£300m @ 3.3p per share multiply by 19 = 62.7p per share that you own

My point would be that unless the SP is at those levels (14.8P or 62.7p) they are raising at a premium
Unless the Dilution is greater than 19/1
Or II involved and buying larger chunks of the RI
ultimately this is all guess work... this will be clearer when nearer the RI point...

Some people have stated RI will happen on day after sanction of SOA as well which is utter rubbish... why would Amigo agree 12months with ICC as part of SOA to do it on day 1...
A RI was always required even in SOA 1 it was stated by Amigo in court that a RI would be required to fund the new lending for the business which Gary stated a RI would be based on a business proposal not just to repay complaints... which is exactly what this RI is.

I agree that is the basic maths of it Jimmy... the questions are will the SP match those requirements... otherwise they are trying to raise at a premium or dilution is greater which will still cause issues with fulfilling the raise... unless II are involved... once IIs are involved SP will raise as previously seen with SOA1...

All of this is speculation and almost irrelevant until SOA2 is passed and at that point we will start to establish more...
Does Lending start before RI?
If so how profitable is it?
What are the new products?
what is the RI structure/timeframes etc
are IIs Involved?

There has been a lot of negative RNSs and rightly so as the company is trying to sort out its complaint liabilities and until that is resolved there is no business effectively!

Once the SOA is resolved i expect more positive RNSs to be released inline with the points above which will in turn increase SP.

Im sorry i really dont get the discussion of stating that RI will occur straight after the court sanction... Why would a CEO do that?

By doing a RI now:
The RI is based on the SOA and nothing else...
No new business proposal/evidence

By waiting at least until November the benefits are massively in Amigos favour...
Amigo will understand the scope of the complaint population as complaint date coses.
ICC have approved for Amigo to lend up to £35m
FCA may approve new ending which they have indicated that they would... in RNS 11th Apr 2022
Amigo can launch new products and have a business model to issue a RI against with a lending book up to £35m

So im sorry i just dont see a RI happening until November... why would Amigo sign up for something where they have negotiated 12months and do it on day 1?

Everyone do your own research :)