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@red_inky im sorry but why do you suggest "you dont think we will get much out of this in the next 3-6months" ? The focus is now on shareholders for Amigo and restarting lending... the next 3-6 months will be a dam sight busier thank the last 12 months and the RNSs to follow will be positive not insolvency as stated in the last 12 months!
As for saying youve watched it drop all day... its currently 7.45p up 16%
The amount of extra shares is due to the FCA guidance that shareholders need to take a hit... (I believe the RNS said industry market standard) hence i do think we will see a dilution of 19/1 but we wont know what the RI is (ie what price is it set at what discount will be offered, if its fully backed if shareholders dont take up the rights etc)
the RI will only be announced after lending has been resumed and we have an understanding of profit potential... lets be clear GJ did say at court in SOA 1 that a RI would have been required to fund new lending what he didnt want to do was a RI based on the SOA being approved as there would be no business to base the RI against... in essence GJ is doing a RI based exactly on what he said in court for SOA1
Suffer... come on... if you are going to answer it give some real facts...
They can lend up to £35m they dont need to do a RI to lend that! (they have the remaining amount of securitisation facility) this will be evidenced within the qtr results due shortly
Why would the FCA give a huge fine that would totally derail the SOA being completed and stop creditors getting the maximum amount of redress
Come on... lets be clear when answering a question
@Franky yes you are right the ICC agreed to Amigo to start lending up to £35m once FCA approve Amgo meet regulatory standards.
Totally agree that is a soft launch to try the new products out and give an understanding of the potential of the business... this is why the RI will only occur towards the end of the year beginning of next year.
Your final point regarding cheap shares... today at 7p is still cheap as i believe the price at RI will be higher than that... just to be clear im not saying the RI will be 19x7p :) im just stating that when they release the RNS to say the RI will be voted on the SP at that time will be way above 7p
Sorry for the lengthy response but just my view:
Look at the chart with the Volume, you can see what is happening and has been for a few weeks... Downward pressure with sales and then spikes of Buy Volume (typically signs of orders being filled) if thats the case then we should be expecting TR1s shortly... 3% = 14.25m shares
The volume of sales as the SP dropped back to 7p dried up which will start to mean that if there is IIs buying in then the price will rise until the next tranche of sale prices are triggered...
So why would you sell today on the day after the court approved the SOA?
Fear of Dilution?
Why fear the dilution?
The SP is 7p today people was saying on here that the RI will be done the day after the sanction of the SOA... I said that was utter rubbish and appears to be true!
The RNS for the sanction of the SOA also stated relending in the RNS before the mention of equity raise...
so you have a period of time within 12 months before the RI is voted on and only at that point will we understand the cost of the dilution (i expect the dilution to be 19/1) but that is irrelevant its the cost at which the RI is placed at and as someone mentioned earlier it will need to be attractive to shareholders.
ultimately today the company is worth £33m
If the company starts to relend in the current economic environment what is the potential value?
Its first year of trading on the stock market it was consistently valued above £2 per share with a Market value of £950m
so even if we said it has the potential to be a third of that value going forward thats 66p per share
(thats on todays share structure) yes a RI will be required but that also has to be attractive to shareholders which also = potential!
DYOR but personally this has great potential
Frankly i do agree with what you are saying
The one thing i think changes is that at the moment the focus is on SOA being approved without that there is no business effectively.
Once SOA is approved the attention turns to shareholders...
without shareholders agreeing to RI there is no solution...
For Shareholders to agree they will require:
Potential Profit of the new business model
SP to improve to show potential returns on investment
RI to have a shareholder incentive to smooth the 19/1
All of this will be done via positive RNS statements that i expect to start happening within the first 6months of SOA being approved
Suffer... why would the court reject a proposal to give redress to creditors and resolve an issue that has been going on for nearly 2 years...
oh by the way,
The regulator isnt objecting
The Complaints ombudsman (FOS) agreed it
The Independent Creditors Committee agreed it
88% of creditors that responded agreed to it
There would have to be some glaring legal issue with the SOA that would result in the court objecting... of which the court have already seen the SOA to approve creditors to vote on it.
There is absolutely no way that Amigo will do a RI straight after SOA being approved... Read the SOA it gives you enough detail to understand this... everyone is entitled to their own opinion but do your own research at the very least dont take peoples words for it on here ( i include mine in that statement as well)
Freekick,
This is the thing:
£70m @ 0.78p (Not 78p just to be clear) :) multiply that by 19 = 14.82p per share that you own.
£300m @ 3.3p per share multiply by 19 = 62.7p per share that you own
My point would be that unless the SP is at those levels (14.8P or 62.7p) they are raising at a premium
Unless the Dilution is greater than 19/1
Or II involved and buying larger chunks of the RI
ultimately this is all guess work... this will be clearer when nearer the RI point...
Some people have stated RI will happen on day after sanction of SOA as well which is utter rubbish... why would Amigo agree 12months with ICC as part of SOA to do it on day 1...
A RI was always required even in SOA 1 it was stated by Amigo in court that a RI would be required to fund the new lending for the business which Gary stated a RI would be based on a business proposal not just to repay complaints... which is exactly what this RI is.
I agree that is the basic maths of it Jimmy... the questions are will the SP match those requirements... otherwise they are trying to raise at a premium or dilution is greater which will still cause issues with fulfilling the raise... unless II are involved... once IIs are involved SP will raise as previously seen with SOA1...
All of this is speculation and almost irrelevant until SOA2 is passed and at that point we will start to establish more...
Does Lending start before RI?
If so how profitable is it?
What are the new products?
what is the RI structure/timeframes etc
are IIs Involved?
There has been a lot of negative RNSs and rightly so as the company is trying to sort out its complaint liabilities and until that is resolved there is no business effectively!
Once the SOA is resolved i expect more positive RNSs to be released inline with the points above which will in turn increase SP.
Im sorry i really dont get the discussion of stating that RI will occur straight after the court sanction... Why would a CEO do that?
By doing a RI now:
The RI is based on the SOA and nothing else...
No new business proposal/evidence
By waiting at least until November the benefits are massively in Amigos favour...
Amigo will understand the scope of the complaint population as complaint date coses.
ICC have approved for Amigo to lend up to £35m
FCA may approve new ending which they have indicated that they would... in RNS 11th Apr 2022
Amigo can launch new products and have a business model to issue a RI against with a lending book up to £35m
So im sorry i just dont see a RI happening until November... why would Amigo sign up for something where they have negotiated 12months and do it on day 1?
Everyone do your own research :)
from the same place the derampers come from when its bad news... Its good to see some positivity about this share... well done to all those that held and those that also bought from the lows of 1.7p... I have held throughout its not been easy by any stretch of the imagination... still hurdles to get past but certainly seems that it is going in the right direction... Creditors get a good deal the FCA seem on board and the SP is rewarding shareholders from the significant losses that a lot of people have faced.
I do agree with this... however the big picture is £70m needs to be raised... regardless of the SP and whatever the RI price is the potential is for somebody to just pay £70m for the RI as no PIs will take it up... at which point the SP could be 0.5p or 4p or 10p it doesnt matter to the new investor paying £70m their value doesnt change... just my thoughts
Existing shareholders lose and new investor wins
HH I agree the RI prices are difficult to estimate... also the principle of them raising £15m is useless who would invest in it to just pay claimants back the principle of a RI is to look at the future of the business so the value needed is a minimum of £70m as per the RNS statement...
All i would say is nobody wins out of this if it goes tits up... Claimants get less, shareholders lose, Public lose a funding gap source... in times like this it should be about doing the right thing for all.
SOA 2 is giving 42p in the £ to claimants
RI is giving life to the business
Shareholders are having a significant reduction in holdings 95% this is what alot of people have wanted yet even when they get what they wanted seem to be happy to shout amigo down to the end...
For this to work something needs to change though
£70m to be raised
19/1 (95% Dilution) by the way 19/1 is a minimum example below
Current Share Price 2p
RNS Example:
Original Shares 475,000,000
New Shares 9,025,000,000
Funds Raised 70,000,000
Diluted Price £0.008 To achieve this with a 95% reduction at 19/1 the RI Price needs to be:
RI Price £0.147 (I am not saying we will get close to this at all... but shows what price the board need it to be to hit 19/1)
Todays SP: if they stick with 19/1
Originial Shares 475,000,000
New Shares 9,025,000,000
Funds Raised 9,500,000 (Doesnt get anywhere close to what they want) would be in excess of 100/1
Diluted Price £0.001
RI Price £0.020
The dilution would be worthless who would invest?
the argument that was put at court is there is no future business unless resending is thrown into the pot of a RI all you would be doing is buying a chuck of compensation debt without the security of the FCA agreeing to Amigo 2.0 hence I'm not convinced a RI will happen as I don't think they are confident they would sell the required shares (RR was fully backed)
So the next option is dilution which I think may be more likely however regarding what % is taken god knows... I personally feel 25% is bearable anything above that is taking a big hit to PI Shareholders... basically you would lose 25% of your shares and it be placed into the SOA pot that's roughly 120m shares for the SOA.
Ok that's where we agree nobody knows the numbers hence my disagreement with the % and values that you have stated previously...
At no point have I said what Gary should say... my only point is that now the complaints waiver and the securitisation facility waiver both expire 24th Sept the burning platform is obvious... no SOA by this date administration will need to be lodged and then who wins?? nobody!
The best of it is... you talk about the value of what is offered... but most will never get 100% of what is offered anyway as they will pay in the region of 30% to CMCs for completing a form so you are actually fighting just as much for CMCs as you are the creditors... could it be if you're not Sara you are a CMC... not convinced youre a shareholder that's for sure :)
perfect... so you will have noticed this section in 77:
It is not though a decisive or conclusive answer to the application for sanction: if the Company is able to demonstrate that the Scheme Creditors, having been properly consulted and informed of their options, have consented to this outcome, the court may be prepared to consider that the Scheme is a proper one for sanction.
The position of amigo is an interesting now that the burning platform that wasn't there before is certainly starting to loom in September with the waivers expiring... insolvency is the next outcome...
Now I personally don't have an issue with dilution but your % and values are excessively skewed which I do find interesting as to why you post it on here...
Ultimately nobody benefits if the company goes into administration.
I wish you all the best in your mission
Jimmy,
I'm interested in the point you make here...
The judgement showed clear concern that this hierarchy had been upended by the first scheme so these numbers simply reflect what the judge / FCA have said
I can't see where the judge states that the restructure needs to be in line with insolvency standards...
I note the extract below but this states fairly allocates between various stakeholders not in line with insolvency hierarchy that you are working by...
The FCA expects the directors to continue to explore and promote a restructuring which fairly allocates the benefits and losses among the various stakeholders. I agree with that, and would urge the directors to continue their efforts to promote a suitable restructuring.