Member Info for largey00

So what changed since 16/04/26 when Barclays rated BTRW at £4.82 compared to today and rating it at £2.60? a 46% drop??? surely overdone.

Its the holdings increase on 29th April we should be interested in, Phoenix Asset Management Partners Limited went from unrecorded to 5.01% thats almost as much as the shorts... the question on this share is how long is trump prepared to go on the war with Iran and risk his midterm elections... This has great potential to bounce back to £3.50+ in normal trading conditions

Nothing will improve until trump has his entry point for the markets then the war will stop and we will see steady growth over the next 2 yrs

No brainer as in positive or negative?

Lol... you did well then you caught it at its 52-wk low 249.30... so as you have loaded up lets see if you are right again and lets see it rise :)

Does that mean you have loaded up?

I agree Cladding is the gift that keeps on giving...

the one thing i took for comfort in the announcement of the c£248m are from the issues in Southern Region 1 development across 4 Buildings (98m) and then (150m) from Redrow which with deferred tax comes in at 105m so hopefully this may not be quite so bad or at the very least it feels its good they have lifted the stone on Redrow and that is the outcome so far.

If and that is a big IF that is all they find then that to me is more positive news than long term issues continually draining the profit.

Personally i still look back at the 10 years and the SP has always been above where it is now considering the fact we have had 3 significant impacts Covid, Ukraine war, Trumps Trade War... 2 out of 3 are almost resolved, this looks to me that the SP has been higher during far worse market conditions than present.

Regardless of your political view and for the record im not a Labour fan... they are in for the next 4 years they have already wasted 12 months with little progress and yes the world has changed with Trump but that doesnt detract from the point that Labour will need to achieve something before they go back to the polling stations and the biggest ticket for them is the Economy... that is all positive for Homebuilders if/when it happens.

A few points for me on this stock

It is trading at almost a 10yr low,

June 2016 it shows lower at £3.60,

March 2022 at £3:37ish Inflation was spiralling due to Ukraine War and interest rates was predicting to hit 6%.

Even during Covid it was higher than it is now

Positives:

Internal Factors

£100m Cost savings as part of acquisition of Redrow

Director Buy ins

Land Bank

CMA deal

Dividend

Share purchase

External Factors

Interest rates are predicting to drop - even if that doesn't happen on Thursday they will drop before xmas if not twice before then.

Lending rules to be relaxed

Government Planning Rules Changes - Agree with them or not they will improve housebuilding.

Government self imposed target of 1.5m homes a year... (even if we agree or disagree this will be achieved)

The Negatives for me are:

Internal Factors - Remedial costs - already had a hit in this trading statement, however this appears to be a one off.

External Factors - Stubborn Inflation (Although this has been an issue for 4 years driven by Covid and Ukraine War)

Inflation will only stabilise when the world is stable... Ukraine War ends and Trumps Trade War ends - Trump is getting his trade deals.

DYOR

By Xmas this will be between £4 & £4.40

By half year results in Feb 26 £4.20 & 4.80

as it sits right now £950k

Just to clarify though that the court didn't assess the Wind Down option as the New Business Scheme was approved.

Blueskyboy i totally see what you are saying and i cant deny reading todays RNS im amazed the SP isnt far lower than it is... Ultimately the BOD need to reassess the plans... Im not so sure an SOA 3 will succeed but the FCA must look at this to understand that yes an SOA must be punishing to a business but the principle is to help it to survive... the SOA 2 gave all the £ left in the business to the creditors + £15m from funds of an empty shell... yes Shareholders should accept some of the burden i have never disagreed with that... the fact the FCA stated this and wipe out shareholders (SP was 30p at the time) we are now at 2p they have their 95% dilution... they surely cant dispute the impact on shareholders.

If this fails i clearly dont see how the FCA can be satisfied with the outcome...
Creditors will lose out - who will actually need the refund
Sub Prime lending for people who need it will lose out - As much as people argue about sub prime there is a huge need for it.

I guess i am taking comfort at the fact that there is far more transactions at the buy price today than sell price...

Just a rant i guess :)

From the announcement yesterday i was interested in the pause of this product... Guarantor loans is what amigo was based on so why pause it???
Reward Rate is different... this is taken from their return to lending RNS
"Volumes of guarantor loans are expected to be higher initially with the non-guarantor unsecured loan becoming the larger product in the medium term."

So they was expecting guarantor loans to be easier to process/approve in the short term - Clearly not the case

However they did expect Non-Guarantor Loans to be the main thread of business in the future... this is what Reward Rate was expecting to be their main product.

Why is this important to consider...
By Pausing the product this should reduce costs
Reduce costs should reduce £45m required
Also reduce the chance of issues/complaints as only 1 party requiring checks not 2
Higher acceptance rate - Clearly focus on the areas that you get more fruits from

Im not saying this is the golden nugget but do feel there is merit in this decision and should make it easier to achieve funding... £45m was the first request... Now they are balancing what they really need

This Base Scenario is interesting... It only states additional new funding beyond the equity raise.... No such value of the additional funding stipulated!!!

The Base scenario assumes that:
• the conditions of the Scheme (explained above) are met in the required timescales
• balance adjustments and refunds resulting from complaints in the Scheme are consistent with the assumptions that underpin the complaints provision reported as at 31 December 2022 (see note 2.2.1)
• at least the minimum committed amount of £112.0m is paid out as cash redress in the Scheme, being £97.0m from existing resources and future collections plus an additional £15.0m following the equity raise
• additional new funding is received beyond the equity raise to facilitate future growth of the business
• collections on the existing loan book continue in line with expectation

As stated here:

· Net unrestricted cash of £91.1m at 31 December 2022 (Q3 FY2022: net cash of £52.9m) driven by the continued collection of the back book and limited originations in the period. However, substantially all the Group's net cash is committed to the Scheme.

No I dont believe that is right... the remaining unrestricted cash goes to the scheme.

I do believe they can fund the business for 6 months on the funds that they have already achieved for a RI they can then look at alternative financing for the remaining £20m that is potentially needed...

I agree... Ask yourself how does it look if the SOA fails because the constraints from the FCA on 19:1 dilution and Fine restrict the company into a wind down... there is no benefit in doing the SOA at all and has wasted 2 years and so much financial waste and Creditors are worse off... that does not look good on the FCA at all...

The FCA need this to be a success as this is a way many companies will deal with the issue!

I cant deny it has crossed my mind since the latest RNS that the wind down option is going to happen...

I just dont believe they would wait another 2 weeks... or invite shareholders to Bournemouth to tell them you lost everything...
They have time to find an investor now No FCA fine which would have stopped any investor

they are not a true reflection... true fact buys can show as sells

Are you sure its a sell? the trades on here are not accurate... true fact

The FCA has approved Amigo to return to lending... it states that in the RNS today.

The issue is the £45m raise which they cant get a commitment for the full raise... this was always going to be the sticking point after they raised it from £15m to £45m.

They have debt facilities lined up... its the funding... I think this will all be resolved.

Jimmy... At which point do you stop going on about the bad practices of the past and look at the fact the SOA has been approved and RewardRate is the new business going forward with FCA support and new directors onboard... the SOA that has been sanctioned by the court with FCA support has dealt with the bad practices... smell the strong coffee the future is brighter than the past