Member Info for lambo222

At a profit?? With the dilution at incanthera the price would need to be 30p to make a profit!! I remember at 3p I said a placing was due and a few months later a 2p placing was announced…. Funding for aim companies is incredibly difficult atm, but if you need cash you either accept the discount or liquidate your company. 1.2p is my prediction on price

There are only two current sharing agreements, one has ended. Obviously private investors need to buy these shares from Lanstead when they sell so if there is not sufficient buyer activity then the price drops to attract buyers as IMM need Lanstead to sell into market for them to receive their funds, think it’s around £40k a month at this level. BOD said funded to end of 2024 as long as certain assumptions are met. Those assumptions were, full take up of the £500k retail placing…. Only £130k was taken. Share price been at or above 2.6p for Lanstead to sell, it’s been 40% below this level since October. Salary breaks one would hope are been taken but it’s the R&D spend of approx £800k every 6 months that can’t really be cut and general admin costs. Like I say they burn £1.2m every 6 months. My personal expectation is a low ball placing for around £4m that will see them funded through to trial completion in around 3 years time, then as the share price increases those who took the placing can sell out at a big profit, those 2p Lanstead warrants will kick in and provide more funding. They will do another big placing ahead of results like they did last time just incase of failure, and that’s the expected cycle of events from my viewpoint. I will take the placing 100% but I see no value buying here when funds are due, the market knows this so buyers for Lanstead shares won’t be queuing round the block

Spot on, and the 6 month cash burn is…. £1.2m so you see my point on why a placing is imo due shortly. Agree any rns event like a partner deal could change this but in the absence of news a placing looks due shortly

Adastra run the numbers… cash received from Lanstead and £130k placing then look at the 6 month cash burn… money received doesn’t cover 6 months cash burn imo so by FEB a placing could be needed to keep the lights on, run the numbers and let me know your thoughts as you seem clued up, but I think your wrong on a placing not been needed very soon

CIDP is dormant for now, they had the pre IND meeting 8 months ago and heard nothing since despite promising IND submission in H2 2023… talk is cheap and has been for years now, only action will see the price rise, time is ticking because cash will now be very low imo given placing was 80% undersubscribed and Lanstead deal is bringing in near 40% less than anticipated… if Tim thought IMM was cheap then I guess he would have participated in the last placing. I get the suspicion that the next ultra cheap placing will be a boys club placing at a super cheap price and that will be the time to buy imo, last 3 placings 11p…. 5p….. 2p….. logic would state a 1p placing is on the cards next but we shall soon find out

Thanks Dallo, balanced as always, Tim has been banging on about ROW for years so I take that with a pinch of salt, CIDP was supposed to have IND application in months ago but that’s gone quite I assume because they haven’t the money for it, who knows. My personal opinion is the boys club are allowed to take a placing just at the right time the newsflow kicks off in around 6 months time…. They usually do a retail offering so worth having some power dry for this. I’m biased as I want size in the placing and have set things up so I am offered it if it goes ahead, we shall see.

Spot on Pokerchips. Will take around 9-10 months to get everything ready for patient recruitment and in that time another placing will be required so the time to buy will be the next placing imo, I’m sure many larger investors feel the same and are waiting for this as the timing will coincide with patient recruitment been close. No idea what price they will get one away at between 1.2-1.5p I assume depending on how aggressively Lanstead sell, Iv a tiny amount in so I’m offered the placing so will take full advantage when it comes, at current cash burn and money received calculations from Lanstead I reckon by end May they are out of money

Just checking in… on my list to buy again this year but not yet as another placing looks to be due first, if they can get £4m away in a placing that will cover IMM for the duration of the trial, will definitely take the placing so bought a token amount just to make sure I’m eligible for it, 1.5p maybe I’d be happy enough with that

What’s the COS here 18%? Also does anyone know how much they paid for the rig? Cheers

Really strange price action, down to 1.5p bid back up to 1.6p bid, then when the ask is 1.60p they want 1.73p for even a grands worth, only way to buy these is via limit order it’s just really hard to buy any size, probably why ppl took £130k at 2p as it’s impossible to buy size in open market. You get the feeling if Tim pulls a rabbit out of the hat and gets a good ROW deal for Lupozor including cash this could all change around very quickly, slippage update must be close anyway so just a waiting game, CIDP FDA submission also due with orphan drug designation application so all to play for over the next few weeks I feel, lots of orders on the book at 1.6p and below but they seem reluctant to activate the orders atm…

Yeah but both current drugs used to treat Lupus and worth billions failed the first phase 3 trial it seems par for the course with Lupus… let’s see the science says it works

Sorry to hear of your health issue Mike, wishing you all the best, it’s a good drug there is no doubt about that

They haven't lied they just want to make sure everything is perfect before they invest $25m as the rewards if successful will be transformational for Avion aswel as IMM. They have never conducted trials before so it’s all a learning curve hence working with multiple experts and wanting FDA guidance to get to this stage. You either buy now and take on the risk of the Avion not going ahead for whatever reason, or you wait for the rns confirmation and pay much higher, I can see merit with either strategy. But if the trial starts let’s say Feb 2024, and readout is late 2025 you can bet your house that this will be close to £100m Mcap before the trial readout, it’s just a waiting game and deciding when is best to buy imo, still hard to buy any shares too NT for most amounts

Despite the news blackout and terrible markets it’s actually holding firm at these levels which are pretty much all time lows. Difficult to buy too it’s NT or premiums wanted for most buys above a grand. Once the trial starts sentiment will change here and it will look insanely cheap for a fully funded phase 3 trial, but it does need that confirmation rns because after 4 years of messing about and broken promises the market doesn’t quite believe, once it’s there in black and white this will be an attractive investment

Agreed, but they can’t say H2 in an rns and then have 23/24 on the website as 2024 is open to interpretation yet again no commitment, this trial was actually supposed to start Q1 2019 lol, if it is delayed expect this to fall hard, probably why Tim didn’t participate in the placing

They cannot repeatedly say H2 2023 in an rns, Tim says in interviews it’s ahead of schedule, yet now the website says 2023/2024 which is a clear delay, this needs to be rns’d and I will contact the company for clarification as a delay will severely impact the share price

Yep delayed until 2024! What a joke they need to rns this given it’s on website

I will take a few when Lanstead do a big dump, historically they tend to sell off towards the end of the calendar year and the price usually gets a good 20% down day and big volume, that’s the day to buy imo most likely around 1.5p or lower which without news is where this is heading

Dallo if you had a 500k order in then your broker would just part fill it at 1.75p, which broker are you using because there was ample opportunity to part fill that order today under 1.75p

I don’t think they will pull out tbh but it’s a possibility, once they commit some money and get the phase 2 underway then this possibility is removed so an update is needed imo, price action is mainly down to Lanstead selling in the background in my opinion, given there’s no real retail selling down here, in my opinion it’s Lanstead trickling shares into the market, the lower it goes the more retail will start to buy from Lanstead, it’s been this way for years, 1.4p range will probably gain a bit of volume but it’s a shocking market atm hence low volumes and lower price