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106.71

I understand that

1. ENQ gets a premium to Brent
2. Gas sales are unhedged

Assume 5% of production is gas, unhedged

From Feb22 operations update presentation, say mid-target production in 2022 is 47,500

Annual production = 17.34m
OIL = 16.47m
GAS = 0.87m
OIL Hedged @$70 = 8.60 mbo = $602m
OIL Unhedged@$100 = 7.87mbo = $787m
GAS Unhedged@200 = 0.87 = $174m
Total sales = $1,563m
Operating = $430m
Capital = $165m
Decommissioning $75m
Loan interest, say $100m

2022 FCF = $793M >> MKT CAP !!

THESE ARE VERY CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES

Crazy valuation IMO !!

DYOR

IamNotanAnalyst
Where did you get 30% as the gas mix ?

Well 6 months to June 21, gas/ condensate sales were $57.9m

Gas prices are @5 times higher in 2022.So I expect that gas/ condensate sales will be $580m if we simply pro-rata. So we would have to add this amount on to FCF, taking revenue over $2bn for 2022

Also my calcs were very conservative, both in terms of production and sale price . I've read article of N Sea oil now attracting a $3-4 premium over the quoted Brent as Russian supplies have been cut off to western companies. Also produCtion is likely to be much higher as capital/operating spend is much higher this year.

We could quite easily see $1bn FCF in 2022 .... this will result in a rerate for ENQ and this could multibag to £2+

What better hedge against rising inflation than betting in a small N Sea oil/gas producer ?!!

Ignore the daily noise and hold for 6 mnths - might be the best investment decision in your life !!

As always, DYOR

GL All

From Feb22 operations update presentation, say mid-target production in 2022 is 47,500

Annual production = 17.34m
Hedged @$70 = 8.60 mbo = $602m
Unhedged@$100 = 8.74mbo = $874m

Total sales = $1,476m
Operating = $430m
Capital = $165m
Decomminssioning $75m
Loan interest, say $100m

2022 FCF = $706M >> MKT CAP !!

THESE ARE VERY CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES AND EXCLUDE GAS SALES

Crazy valuation !!

DYOR

From Feb22 operations update presentation, say mid-target production in 2022 is 47,500

Annual production = 17.34m
Hedged @$70 = 8.60 mbo = $602m
Unhedged@$100 = 8.74mbo = $874m

Total sales = $1,476m
Operating = $430m
Capital = $165m
Decomminssioning $75m
Loan interest, say $100m

2022 FCF = $706M >> MKT CAP !!

THESE ARE VERY CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES AND EXCLUDE GAS SALES

Crazy valuation !!

DYOR

Annual operating cashflow =$3,916.5m
Less capital spend $1,300m
Less Interest $260m
Less divis $200m

NET DEBT REDUCTION = $2,156.5 !!

IMO
DYOR

with all the extra cashflow, Bressay could indeed be fast-tracked !!

60P party coming soon imo

GL All

that's equivalent of 4p on share price every month!!

From Dec 21 presentation, say low end 200kboepd production in 2022, 50% oil, 50% gas
50% of oil hedged @61.00, 66% of gas hedged @$26.63

Hedged oil daily cash = 50k @$61= $3.05m
Unhedged oil daily cash = 50k@$90 = $4.50m

Hedged gas daily cash = 66k @$26.63 = $1.76m
Unhedged gas daily cash = 34k@$136=$4.62m (say 180p per therm = $136 per boe)

Daily total cash = $13.93m
Operating expenses= $3.2m
Daily operating cash flow = $10.73m

Annual operating cashflow =$3,916.5m
Less capital spend $1,300m
Less Interest $260m
Less divis $200m

NET DEBT REDUCTION = $2,156.5 !!

IMO
DYOR

I expect £6+ this year

Tolmount coming online cannot be far away now.

That will be rocket fuel for the sp imo !

Can't be long now ....

HC looks such a muppet today, and as always lol

HC is clueless. What an idiot

HC full of it again I see

This is not PMO .... annual FCF at these prices is nearly market capitalisation!

It's a crazy price

More morning vomit from HC lol

HC
Stop the diarrhea ffs

Imagine what Tolmount coming online in Q1 will do to sp !!