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Its online guys !!

https://www.oedigital.com/news/496031-harbour-energy-starts-production-from-tolmount-field-in-north-sea

You seem certain that Monday brings Tolmount News.

What makes you so certain ?Do you have a good source for this ? ; )

Obsolute - good point

Going by year end debt, we could be debt free by November, and my calculations are on the conservative side. If Tolmonut comes online strong, then we could have an even earlier debt free status.

Surely this is one of the safest harbours in the current storms.#
ATB. DYOR

That's not built into SP due to years long delays - so when it is confirmed online I expect a spike in sp - say 10-15%

This output is unhedged, so 15kboepd generates $821m per annum - most of it straight to FCF !!

GL ALL
DYOR

Well spotted ephiphany !!

Revised figures:

From year end report, say low end 200kboepd production in 2022, 50% oil, 50% gas
50% of oil hedged @$61.00, 66% of gas hedged @$26.63

Hedged oil daily cash = 50k @$61= $3.05m
Unhedged oil daily cash = 50k@$100 = $5.00m

Hedged gas daily cash = 66k @$26.63 = $1.76m
Unhedged gas daily cash = 34k@$150=$5.10m (say 200p per therm = $136 per boe)

Daily total cash = $14.91m
Operating expenses= $3.2m
Daily operating cash flow = $11.71m

Annual operating cashflow =$4,274.1m
Less capital spend $1,300m
Less Interest $260m
Less divis $200m

FCF AND NET DEBT REDUCTION = $2,514m !!

We should be debt free within 11 MONTHS !!

ATB
DYOR

Rookie
Hedging runs into 2023 but Tolmont Gas will be unhedged - 20kboepd at $116 per barrel - KERCHING !!

Tolmont news is imminent I think

From Annual Results, say low end 200kboepd production in 2022, 50% oil, 50% gas
50% of oil hedged @61.00, 66% of gas hedged @$26.63

Hedged oil daily cash = 50k @$61= $3.05m
Unhedged oil daily cash = 50k@$100 = $5.00m

Hedged gas daily cash = 66k @$26.63 = $1.76m
Unhedged gas daily cash = 34k@$116=$3.94m (say 200p per therm = $116 per boe)

Daily total cash = $13.75m
Operating expenses= $3.2m
Daily operating cash flow = $10.55m

Annual operating cashflow =$3,850m
Less capital spend $1,300m
Less Interest $260m
Less divis $200m

NET DEBT REDUCTION = $2,090. !!

IMO
DYOR

CO1:COM
Brent Crude (ICE)
USD/bbl. 108.66 +1.41 +1.31%

@half hedged at $78

The rest is making $100+

Kraken gets a premium to Brent

From Feb22 operations update presentation, say mid-target production in 2022 is 47,500

Annual production = 17.34m

Say average Brent = $90

Total sales = $1,560m
Operating = $430m
Capital = $165m
Decommissioning $75m
Loan interest, say $100m

2022 FCF = $790M >> MKT CAP !!

Very conservative assumptions

CRAZY PRICE HERE !!

CO1:COM
Brent Crude (ICE)
USD/bbl. 101.80 +0.73 +0.72%

TLW has 75% hedged for 2022
ENQ has 47% hedged for 2002, and 20% for 2023

In this high oil price environment, ENQ will benefit much more that TLW !!

DYOR

Well by my calcs the cash generated by ENQ currently is @5p of the share price per month !

This will sharply upwards very soon

I think we may see 60p by late summer

All imo

DYOR

This will multibag x 6 in 2022. Here's why ...

Current P/E based on 2021 results is just under 2 .... based on 2022 it will have a forward P/E of @1

This is crazy .... P/E should be at least 6 even conservatively. Reason is that historically this is due to ENQ being high risk because of historic high debt and climate concerns... with N Sea being wound down.

With Russian invasion and Brent over $100, ENQ could be debt free sometime in 2023, and N Sea is now part of national security. Climate is taking a back burner for the foreseeable future.

That's why I think this will multibag by 6 in 2022.

Forget the 60p party, I am looking forward to the 200p party !!

All imo

DYOR

USD/bbl. 108.48 +0.95 +0.88% Jun 2022

Looks like divis are on the way !!

Sorry, wrong board !

Current P/E based on 2021 results is just under 2 .... based on 2022 it will have a forward P/E of @1

This is crazy .... P/E should be at least 6 even conservatively. Reason is that historically this is due to ENQ being high risk because of historic high debt and climate concerns... with N Sea being wound down.

With Russian invasion and Brent over $100, ENQ could be debt free sometime in 2023, and N Sea is now part of national security. Climate is taking a back burner for the foreseable future.

That's why I think this will multibag by 6 in 2022.

Forget the 60p party, I am looking forward to the 200p party !!

All imo

DYOR

Current P/E based on 2021 results is just under 2 .... based on 2022 it will have a forward P/E of @1

This is crazy .... P/E should be at least 6 even conservatively. Reason is that historically this is due to ENQ being high risk because of historic high debt and climate concerns... with N Sea being wound down.

With Russian invasion and Brent over $100, ENQ could be debt free sometime in 2023, and N Sea is now part of national security. Climate is taking a back burner for the foreseable future.

That's why I think this will multibag by 6 in 2022.

Forget the 60p party, I am looking forward to the 200p party !!

All imo

DYOR

Assume 10% of production is gas, unhedged

From Feb22 operations update presentation, say mid-target production in 2022 is 47,500

Annual production = 17.34m
OIL = 15.61m
GAS = 1.73m
OIL Hedged @$70 = 8.60 mbo = $602m
OIL Unhedged@$100 = 7.01mbo = $701m
GAS Unhedged@$200 = 1.73mboe = $346m
Total sales = $1,649m
Operating = $430m
Capital = $165m
Decommissioning $75m
Loan interest, say $100m

2022 FCF = $879M >> MKT CAP !!

THESE ARE VERY CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES

Crazy valuation IMO !!

DYOR