Member Info for laidback

ondb
was wrong with acting like a little girl - you are being ageist and mysoginistic with that comment
plus you have a very thin skin if you cannot accept some constructive criticism

LB

onedb

You are not very bright i see

46p per therm = £26.68 boe = @$32 boe

Keep up lad

LB

Say low end 200kboepd production next 12 moths, 50% oil, 50% gas
50% of oil hedged @$61.00, 66% of gas hedged @$32

Hedged oil daily cash = 50k @$67= $3.35m
Unhedged oil daily cash = 50k@$90 = $4.50m

Hedged gas daily cash = 66k @$32 = $2.31m
Unhedged gas daily cash = 34k@$140=$4.76m (say average 200p per therm = $140 per boe)

Daily total cash = $14.92m
Operating expenses= $3.2m
Daily operating cash flow = $11.72m

Annual operating cashflow =$4,277m
Less capital spend $1,200m
Less Interest $100m
Less divis $200m
Less buybacks $300m

FCF AND NET DEBT REDUCTION in 2022 = $2,477m !!
We should be debt free by Christmas 2022 !!

WT not due till 2023. We will be saving on loan interest in 2023, so that should mitigate effects of WT
The very damaging hedges will start unwinding from 2023, meaning significantly more FCF 2024 onwards

ATB
DYOR

Say low end 200kboepd production next 12 moths, 50% oil, 50% gas
50% of oil hedged @$61.00, 66% of gas hedged @$32

Hedged oil daily cash = 50k @$67= $3.35m
Unhedged oil daily cash = 50k@$90 = $4.50m

Hedged gas daily cash = 66k @$32 = $2.31m
Unhedged gas daily cash = 34k@$140=$4.76m (say average 200p per therm = $140 per boe)

Daily total cash = $14.92m
Operating expenses= $3.2m
Daily operating cash flow = $11.72m

Annual operating cashflow =$4,277m
Less capital spend $1,200m
Less Interest $100m
Less divis $200m
Less buybacks $300m

FCF AND NET DEBT REDUCTION in 2022 = $2,477m !!
We should be debt free by Christmas 2022 !!

WT not due till 2023. We will be saving on loan interest in 2023, so that should mitigate effects of WT
The very damaging hedges will start unwinding from 2023, meaning significantly more FCF 2024 onwards

ATB
DYOR

SP can fluctuate wildly but fundamentals are sound here.

On 6th July, SP touched 298.5p. Yet it increased 65% in six weeks to close at 492.10 on 26th August, a day after the half year results

I think we will see a similar rise upto the trading update day in just over 32weeks on 3rd November - should be 500p plus after update imo

Remember a large proportion of the highly unfavourable gas price fixes come off in 2023/24 when Hbr will be debt free

GL All

DYOR

fall today is ridiculous

Annual FCF is almost equal to Mkt Cap !

The market is crazy sometimes

Absolute bargaun here !

Jeremy Hunt has previously voted against WT as I understand

Easy 60k+ addition to daily production.

Tullow is at a very low valuation, has been rejected by Capricorn, so is highly vulnerable at the moment

Harbour Energy will take over Tullow in my opinion. Harbour is predatory, flush with cash and has already swallowed Premier Oil.

Also Harbour want to increase their footprint outside UK, as most of their eggs are in the North Sea basket. They have stated this I think.

You heard it from me first

GL All

DYOR

SORRY MEANT M&G (not MAN GROUP !)

HBR
ITV
BT
MAN GROUP

DYOR

Too much uncertainty ....

GL All

Say low end 200kboepd daily production, 50% oil, 50% gas
50% of oil hedged @$61.00, 66% of gas hedged @$32

Hedged oil daily cash = 50k @$67= $3.35m
Unhedged oil daily cash = 50k@$94 = $4.7m

Hedged gas daily cash = 66k @$32 = $2.31m
Unhedged gas daily cash = 34k@$280=$9.52m (say average 400p per therm = $280 per boe)

Daily total cash = $19.88m
Operating expenses= $3.2m

Daily operating cash flow = $16.68m !!

ATB
DYOR

Boost will be even bigger if Kwasi is made Chancellor - he strongly opposed WT from start

This is still very cheap at 600p

Come on re-rate already !!

Say low end 200kboepd production next 12 moths, 50% oil, 50% gas
50% of oil hedged @$61.00, 66% of gas hedged @$32

Hedged oil daily cash = 50k @$67= $3.35m
Unhedged oil daily cash = 50k@$95 = $4.75m

Hedged gas daily cash = 66k @$32 = $2.31m
Unhedged gas daily cash = 34k@$210=$7.14m (say average 300p per therm = $210 per boe)

Daily total cash = $17.55m
Operating expenses= $3.2m
Daily operating cash flow = $14.35m

Annual operating cashflow =$5,237m
Less capital spend $1,200m
Less Interest $100m
Less divis $200m
Less buybacks $200m

FCF AND NET DEBT REDUCTION in 2022 = $3,537m !!
We should be debt free by November 2022 !!

WT not due till 2023. We will be saving on loan interest in 2023, so that should mitigate effects of WT
The very damaging hedges will start unwinding from 2023, meaning significantly more FCF 2024 onwards

ATB
DYOR

Gas at 562p

cash flooding in from Tolmount

Natural gas down by nearly 30%, that is the reason for the drop here

Still does not change my FCF calcs, as that is based on average gas of 300p per therm

middle east

yes average $10m per day FCF over a year. But I assumed average gas price of $300 per therm over 12 months, so at the moment we are well in excess of $10m a day, nearer $15m a day !!