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ProdOpt,

Much appreciated your technical knowledge. So, why was the HSP working well more than 1 year ago, with peak production rates around 40kbopd, and now kaput?

amundsen spirit still showing glenn lyon, but she is headed east, not north. so where will she go?

pelle,

extremely busy at work so a short message,
i am sure the numbers are for 75%...
how can the tariff + transport costs be $15? that is way too high...
thanks to everybody to explaining the issues with AK's system. ENQ need all the help they can get...

Hi Pelle,
The shares bought by you or any PI are still part of the free float.

In general, this BB seems to not want to talk about the real issue that will prevent ENQ's SP from rising...It is not the poo...

Hi MO,

Even better. In 20 years this is only the 4th time that for this week you have had both API's and EIA's data showing a draw. So, it was not even expected that both would show a draw. And the largest draw of those other three other years in which both API and EIA had a draw for this week was less than 3m.
So, both 4.2m (API) and 8.6m (EIA) draws of crude oil inventories are massive.

Now, will you please let us know what is going on with Kraken/AK? No oil tanker for ages and itsaponzi has started saying this is all a ponzi. Let us prove him wrong...

Hi Pelle,

If you can fix AK/Kraken it should not be a problem. If you cannot I am afraid the wait until 30p will be very long.

E121,
Please ask also about what is going on with AK's 20 day offload cycle.

In fact this is looking very bad. If the wait goes on it will be a 20 day cycle between loads... Average production per day would be just a notch above 25K bopd... expect price targets not to be revised higher for sometime..

squif, no fewer than 17 days. It is counted from departure from AK to departure from AK. So last left on 11/02. And given the state of play with any tanker at least 1 day away, unlikely it will get there and leave before 28/02. This is the SP target issued today is 20p....until kraken is fixed you have to be very. very patient......

Yes, I am. His tweets do not pump oil out of the ground... Many market participants, including Vitol's CEO, say there is no excess supply of oil at the moment. Unless SA announces that it is reversing its March decision to export less oil, by the end of tomorrow the tweet effect will be gone. I am more focused on AK/Kraken than the poo. That is what is holding down this share.

DT's tweet is not very good news to the independent shale producers in the Permian, as volatility of the poo makes it harder for them to embark on more drilling, as they are FCF negative. So, they need loans/equity to sustain/increase production. Anyway, E121 seems to follow the shale producers, so he can correct / add more.

Hi Pelle,
I am relaxed. But I am disappointed that there seems to be no better performance from Kraken/AK. Yes, I am still holding out until 32p. But, if I do not see any improvement I might deploy part of the "cash" invested in Enq elsewhere.
No matter how high the poo goes (say up to upper $70s), the 32p will be hard to reach until Kraken/AK improves. The rest of Enq's portfolio of assets cannot do the job on its own.

I expect the poo to touch $70/bbl this week.

E121,

HK going elsewhere, and the last offload having finished on the 11th, means that it will be at least 16 days until load #32 happens.
The bottom line of all these long delays is that in Jan and Feb average daily production at Kraken must be less than 30k bopd. (stoppage days count for the average when the daily production is computed at the end of the year...)
So, poo down or up makes little difference. the only hope is that hopefully the price discount of the heavy sour crude Kraken produces is now gone, and it is sold at same price of Brent. In terms of FCF eliminating the discount is equivalent to producing 10% less at current oil prices.
You took issue when I wrote that some of the smart money (Fernan, MO) is gone. There is a difference b/w smart and lucky money. The smart money acts on evidence. That is what I meant.
And the evidence that we have is that Kraken/AK's performance is not improving. Absent info that Magnus over-performed in February (as it might have done in January), there is nothing else to sustain the belief that ENQ will exceed expectations this year.

no squif, e121 is right. fs cygnus has left AK and i believe HK is headed there.

that is what FS Cygnus replied to E121, and immediately left Armada Kraken headed to Peterhead...

both heather knudsen and navion oslo seem to be on the move.

and a third view in Schlumberger's earnings conference calll: JANUARY 18, 2019 / 1:30PM, SLB - Q4 2018 Schlumberger NV Earnings Call

"with the continued growth in US shale production, an increasing percentage of the new wells drilled are being consumed to offset the steep decline from the existing production base. In 2018, this number was 54% of total capex and is expected to increase to 75% in 2021."

http://blog.gorozen.com/blog/looking-ahead-in-2019-oil-fundamentals

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidblackmon/2019/02/22/the-oil-and-gas-situation-is-a-train-wreck-around-the-corner/#3d25c49838eb

No, I did not. If I could know MOL's 2018 results in advance imagine how much money I could make... But yes I referred to Scolty and Crathes not a long time ago. It is good work will not be delayed. Hopefully, these will be two assets that will deliver for ENQ

Pelle,

Scolty and Crathes are producing below their potential because the pipeline has to be replaced. The replacement of the pipeline is on track. It was good that MOL (a very large diversified oil company) reported progress on the pipeline replacement. Target to start pumping more oil once the work is complete is Q3.

Scolty & Crathes (MOL 50% WI, non-operated): the replacement pipeline was shipped to the UK for pipeline fabrication.

Catcher (MOL 20% WI, non-operated): reached plateau oil production at
66 mbpd (gross) and achieved very high operating efficiency in Q4. The
subsea program was completed post tie in of Burgman Phase-II. The BW
Catcher FPSO Final Acceptance was granted by the operator.