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E121,

Ok, I had not read it.
I will take note of it.
I will go for 62K for the whole year. And would be happy with that, given the issues with K/AK.
Important to get a hold of CNE's transcript.

E121,

Ok, so why do not you make a production prediction for ENQ in 2019? Lets us see how confident we all are...

Where can we find the transcript?

DD,
I am not oiluser. I will tell when and if I sell. No worries. I can stomach these paper losses. But I am not adding (risk diversification has always served me well!!!) I have bets on other oil companies that have done better -:). Good luck to you.

Bransonbull,
my post are not negative. reality is. I am just saying it as it is. Ignore what I say, but listen to CNE. Rest assured I am not a shorter. If I were I would say it. That is the way I was brought up!
I am just a small PI who should have sold sometime ago...

Lawrence,
Is this good news in terms of POG's production?

Auson,

Yes, a lot of conspiracy theories, rather than facts. It is all a ploy of the evil CNE to negotiate with ENQ. Brokers talk to engineers off the record and set targets that way. What next?...
I take my hat off to Fernan10 who saw it coming.

Auson,
He has, but stubborn people sometimes also lose their shirt... Empirical evidence shows that overconfident CEOs are the one who leverage their companies the most. These is no dispute about this. Studies have been done about this. He and the way he runs the company fits the profile.

Chilting,
Ta for the 20.09K figure. But what the heck is going on in AK, if the last load took so long and it is not even the shutdown? So, we know nothing that could explain such a long time in b/w loads. 25K bopd will be welcome news, but still below the 30-35K bopd guidance.
I am going to stick my neck out and predict that as things stand ENQ's production in 2019 will be lower than 63K bopd.

He clearly has no regard for PIs and treat the company as solely his.

Posters were speculating that current production was the result of a shutdown now. but in fact the shutdown will only be later in the year.
I challenge people on this BB to predict ENQ's production so far this as I did yesterday (61K bopd), and for the full year in light of these news.

I m glad CNE is a partner in the Kraken project. They are pushing ENQ to be forthcoming. ENQ have been obfuscating the small PIs. What have we learned today: that CNE is taking an impairment ("to reflect current performance" and "With up to 18 months of performance history now available, the remaining oil and gas reserves and production profiles have been reassessed, resulting in an impairment charge of US$166.3m arising on the UK Kraken asset." : the way I read this is that they are not sure if AK can ever produce the daily production that was part of the plans all along. if they knew the problems would be fixed by the end of H1 they would not take an impairment. It is up to each of us to interpret this statement how we want, but...), while ENQ is not taking an impairment at the moment, but has ordered a reserves audit (NCE writes "Production levels were most significantly affected by production system outages on the FPSO, weather-related incidents and higher water-cut than originally expected." So, higher water-cut? This is not FPSO related and it will impact 2P reserves if it continues, to the extent I undersnad this."
Let us wait and see how the market is going to take this.

I suspect CNE will be even more forceful in the future if AB and his acolytes keep on being economical with the truth.

The only good news about Kraken are: " The JV is evaluating further investment opportunities in the Kraken area to provide new drilling opportunities in 2020.
The DC4 subsea infrastructure was successfully installed in H2 2018. The three-well DC4 drilling programme is ongoing and remains on schedule with production onstream from the first DC4 well."

Negative? Moi? Nein! Always realistic. let us wait until the 21st to find out if i guessed 61K bopd for the 2019 production so far correctly?

I do not de-ramp or ramp. See my posts on BB of other shares I own. The ramping/de-ramping is all in your head...

Hitman and E121,

You numbers on the savings of the lease make sense, but there is a lot of known unknows (i.e., the conditions agreed b/w BUMI and ENQ), w/out which it is hard to get more precise figures.
Every little helps (as a clubcard in front of me reads...), but the catalyst for a re-rate is the reassurance that AK can eventually average 40K bopd.
Also, w/ some push the POO will touch $70 before the 21st...
Now, whoever thinks this is too cheap at below 19p might want to add to their holdings. I am not adding until there is true certainty that AK is up to the 40K bopd job. DOYR

Hi E121,
I did not write that production guidance will be revised. Just wrote than in 2019 any production data reported will be slightly below the lower limit of the range, i.e. 63K. I went for 61K.
I continue to believe that repaying the circa $100M earlier than when its due in April could do wonders to the SP...
As far as shale you are the top dog here, as you follow such companies. Your views are interesting, and I am not going to disagree with your shale production forecasts.
I am however a believer that the majors being there is a good thing. They have a capital budget to allocate: they could use to move ahead with projects that take long to come to fruition (deep offshore drilling, frontier exploration, etc). By allocating capital to shale they will allocate less to these other projects. But, with the current pessimistic views on the role of oil in 2 decades from now, smaller companies will have a harder time to raise capital, so such long-term projects will slow down, and many will never go ahead. In short, the majors moving into shale will lead to less conventional oil exploration and production. What we have is a partial substitution effect here (more shale and less conventional oil production). So, we will witness an increase of the total oil production quickly, but it will plateau in 2 years time.
Demand growth is still healthy: US demand up 0.5M in one year, China now importing 11Mbopd (even if it is increasing exports of distillates and fuel), and other developing countries with very large populations (India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Turkey, Mexico) will be consuming more oil. So, I very much doubt demand will decrease.

To avoid debt becoming much of a discussion, ENQ should anticipate the payment above due in April, and pay it now, in order to alleviate concerns about debt and signal to the market that they can meet their obligations. They have the money due to the high price hedge for 1Q 2019. so, why wait?

It is all about Kraken or its FPSO. As Hitman wrote at the moment all points to AK being very reliable up to 25K bopd, while in the 2Q and 3Q of last year it was very reliable up to 30K bopd.
Now, it is up to others to do the maths about how much FCF (after CAPEX) is left from Kraken to repay Oz's loan. Enq needs to pay $45M (capital & interest) every year to get the loan repaid in 5 years.

Time for posters to predict what ENQ will say about production in 2019 so far. I go for 61K.

love_you must be andy.p or oiluser, or perhaps is miserb who is back.

HK has left. So how long was it? 25 hours?

Boggi,

This is helpful info. TA.
The test will be when AK's load #33 takes place. If it reverts to 16-17 day cycle, that is fine. If not, then perhaps Alvheim's and Kraken's latest cargo cycle are being affected by different factors.