Member Info for L3Trader

DD,
Yes and denial is a river in Egypt...

let us hope it stays there 100 hours...

KK, I wrote virtually all...

Hi Pelle,

Well. For all the LTHs I hope you are correct on getting that 29k bopd from the remaining assets. Now, we have to think that there is going to be expenditure with all this AK mess that was not budgeted. One would hope that virtually all is BUMI's responsibility.

Krakenoil,
Bayesian up-daters are the opposite of stupid.I can only work with the data I have: load cycles and production. Any sensible statistical model will tell you that the best prediction of future production is not the best past data point (50k)...
The boat produced 50k in the past but very briefly, and the data we have tells us that it it is not what it does on a continued basis.

whiteace, I am not andyp (whoever that person is), rest assured of that.

I have been wiring that AK's decreased production is a problem now and then. But I have been correct. Loads have longer and longer cycles. You would agree with me that 20+days is a few more days than 15-16 days. So, how is this a rumor.
BUMI's brokers and BUMI itself are confirming AK's production problem. Why do you think they had to book impairments? Did they just book impairments for fun?

Keep believing in ENQ, but DOYR.

Hello Hitman1a,

How do you know that the problem is going to be fixed soon? Did not someone write that the best hope is for it to be fixed only by the H2? If so, do you really believe the market is not going to punish ENQ for half year of production at 20k bopd?
If this load took 26 days and a load is 525K, it is really 20K bopd per day. (This onl gives 14K bopd to Enq)
Do you still think current portfolio production is 63k bopd, even with 20K bopd Kraken? Where do you get the other 49k bopd from, even if you assume Magnus at 20k bopd?

What I am suggesting is that ENQ IR disclose what they know and be absolutely forthright about AK on the 21st for once.

I get the sense the brokers are now laughing again as the price is below 20p again. Did the brokers know the major issues that AK has when they released their new target prices? And if so, was it because ENQ IR told them more than it tells its investors? If the answer to the latter question is yes, then I have a problem how the company treats its LTHs.
At 20K bopd, perhaps someone can do the math if the RCF repayment in October will happen will POO at current POO ($65) (it is obvious that the $70 POO I was counting on will not happen for a while...)?
One thing we know even w/out doing any calculations. The money made 15% of 20K bopd is not going to repay any of the principal the OZ capital loan... I am sorry but this is the truth.
Now, we are being told that maybe in H2 2019 AK will be working better?... How can anyone really believe in that. So, many times over the last 9 months have there been discussions that AK is being fixed now? Hundreds of times... And, problems have only become worse. We all know that BUMI has an incentive to fix the problem, but the questions are: do they know how to fix it? And can they do it?
In the meantime all discussions about POO are partly moot, because this company's future depends on Kraken. Magnus cannot save it on its own, even if it delivers beyond the GCA's predicted production path in the current and future years.
Evidence says the whenever the return of an investment depend on hope...
Have a good weekend all.

We won't get the facts on the 21st. They will again go for obfuscation.
They were known at the time of the last update, and yet ENQ preferred to say nothing. In addition to AK's problems, the market has now lost confidence on the information released by the company.
This is all very sad for the LTHs who deserved a more forthcoming IR communication policy.

What will be the new guidance for Kraken? They wrote that 30k-35k bopd was conservative... Conservative in what way?...

I really feel sorry for all of us, and more yet for the people who put a lot of their money here. I will take a serious loss, but how this happened is beyond belief. ENQ must have known the troubles were much more serious than they were saying since last Summer.

22 days and counting. since it will take at least one day and half for a tanker to get (e.g. heather knutsen) there and another for AK to offload, we are now talking about 25 days. this means Kraken is producing no more than 20K bopd at the moment.
Of course there are lot of mitigating factors, work on DC4, bad weather, bad luck, etc.
Unfortunately interest on ENQ's loans adds up every single day independently of all the mitigating factors.
This is getting very interesting.
If load #32 does not happen before Friday morning, I am going to liquidate 1/3 of my LTH.
GLA

"They're recognised as one of the leanest developers," Seapulse chief Scott Aitken said of EnQuest.

this is a joke... "leanest"? yeah production at alma/galia and kraken is very lean...

AB was desperate and needed to add a speculative angle to ENQ, because the current status as a producer of oil only was not working in terms of getting the sp up.

i see another rights issue coming in a couple of years. they will need to pay for the wells, if they win developing a discovery in exchange for a equity stake.

analysts and the market will react to the news one way or the other. ...

in 2020, i do not know, but my view is that with aging wells / pipelines, spending less than $100M is not likely, unless you allow production to decrease. there is backlog of work that needs to be done. Probably Alma needs further work, given that the work done this year, was not so successful. I am basically budgeting 3 wells a year, plus ESP replacements, workovers, etc.. Remember ENQ applied to get more wells in the Dons/West dons, if i recall correctly.

Unfortunately, Amundsen Spirit is no where near AK, so E121 wins the bet. In addition, no other oil tanker is headed there. Today marks 20 days since the last tanker left. Until a new tanker leaves it will be at least 2 more days (it needs to get there first, and then it is load the oil..). This is getting very interesting. Another week or so of this wait and expect shorters to bring the sp below its lowest point so far this year.

Ajes, many thanks for your calculations. Yes, it would be useful to know more about the deal. If I am not mistaken the daily rate has gone down from $445k to circa $400k. This will affect your calculations for 2019. Also, there is a lot of uncertainty about production. We have to bear in mind that production rates drop b/w 6 to 8% every year due to depletion, unless further wells are added. This means that I do not see how anyone can think that CAPEX for the current assets will ever be less than $100M.

AB was disingenuous at best when he claimed Magnus has 2B bbl of reserves. 1B bbl has already been extracted. If another 100M bbl were extracted it would be wonderful. that would be at least $3B in operational cash flow...
At current 20k bopd, 7M bbl are pumped from the oilfield every year.

A lot of detailed and amazing info about DC3/DC4, production train, HSP. Yet, I still do not understand why 40k bopd production was achieved one year ago, and it has not been seen again. I will read everything again, but I still cannot make sense of it all.

poo: heavy low sulphur crude should start to command a premium as time passes. I am still seeing poo at $70 soon. Algeria, even though is not a large producer of oil, is now unstable ...

that is what I learned as a young Praetorian guard.
That is why Amundsen Spirit is now headed north... and I bet she is visiting Armada Kraken soon. Anyone wants to bet?

the new data pages are terrible. and where is the november production?

Trump is about to tweet, and news of that have been leaked...No, it is Novak who said he is not sure if the production cuts will be extended. Anyone who understands Russians will actually interpret this as "we have no plans to stop the production cuts"...

It is safe to assume, given all the data that in the first 2 months Kraken's average daily production was no higher than 25K bopd (all days count to the daily average, regardless of weather or a pump being broken). Given guidance for the year between 30K and 35K bopd, it will be met as long as in the 10 months ahead average daily production is b/w 31K and 37K bopd. So, if Kraken can deliver those production rates, the guidance given a month ago for Kraken is still valid.

Hitman,
I am sorry but I might be misunderstanding what you wrote: " If each DC has one production well connected to a separate production train, we could at some point be losing all of DC3 and 50% of DC1 and DC2.. " Could you please elaborate further?

Squif,
If there is no load for 30 or more days share price volatility is coming. Very, exciting indeed.

Squif,

12 April is not my target date. Hitman talked about 60 days, so I just used my toes and fingers to figure out the date. One way or the other this is now getting very exciting.

Memo74,
The covenants will not ever, ever be breached as long as Magnus is producing 15K bopd or more, even with a poo of $50 (Acquiring Magnus through vendor loans and through FCF sharing of 50/50 for 75% of Magnus was the only clever decision AB made in the last 2 or 3 years...), because all of Enq's EBIDTA enters enters the caclculation. So, I no longer bother even computing it. A waste of time, in my opinion.
The key issue of the RCF has to do with making the repayments as scheduled, and all the evidence tells us that The April repayment of circa $100M will be made easily (let us thank Magnus again...), and that the October repayment will not be hard to meet as long as Magnus keeps pumping at 20k bopd and the poo is above $65M.

Hitman1,
Welcome. I used to read you posts in iii. Much better that you post here. Your suggestion that load #32 might be 60 days after the previous load is a very interesting one. That will surely go well with the analysts when the year end results are presented. The reason is that 60 days after 11 February is April 12. So, that would mean no load #32 before the results are released. This is getting very, very exciting. And, as E121, writes nincompoops will be nincompoops no matter the evidence in front of them!