RE: SP27 Dec 2023 17:02
Tincan - the issue here has been that for more than a year, i'd say really many years, there has been no real strong credible and funded investment prospect that would encourage new investors to invest in equity here. If you're objective/honest I think most would see how there has been practically no buy side strength here for years. In the absence of that, what you have is market makers / brokers who are chopping in and out of the market but ultimately mirroring the net sell side strength here. What that means is that yes, if you have no buyers with which the match up the selling via broker bid/offer spreads, you can have markets that appear and do move a lot on low volume trades. The issue is not that they do that, it's why. Because there are practically no buyers here, none. Why is a question anyone invested here should be asking themselves. Something hasn't smelt so good here for a long time, whether it be unexplained delays, constant funding uncertainties, the constant of slipping deadlines or the seeming mismatch between what the company proclaim is a Moroccan state / gov't keen to encourage foreign investment in he energy sector butting up against the glacial timelines, local beaurocracy, tax issues and more. Something does not add up to me. I see that the overall market sees it similarly, hence the sp. I don't wish anything against individual SHs here despite what some may think, but I have a polar opposite view to most of them of GL, GD and the rest of the team. I think they've been shown to be underhand, misleading and incompetent around timescales, funding and transparency for a long long time. If you look at the SH register you'll realise that really, the main SHs aren't that exposed to little old SOU. ONYHM will get paid hansomely via royalties no matter who ends up producing the gas, AG will get paid most of their money in the same way, neither by the SOU sp. I'd dare say they've both written off the SOU 'investment'. A company with a £25-25m mcap (at the time) getting an LOA on an approx $250m loan, sitting on multiple TCF (cough, cough as Brian would have interjected) - none of it looks or feels right. There is in my mind a 1-2% chance GL pulls a starved and defective rabbit out of the hat in the next few months, but I think a 98% chance or higher of funding, timeline and weight of incompetence leading to SOU's demise soon. It's just my view, but one that's been correct to date. Two morning's left for an RNS re the 31/12/23 bank loan deadline. Will be interesting to see which way it goes, although all but Pescado must have a fair idea now. Seen too many of these AIM mgt teams behave in exactly the same way, I'd dare say we would all say that if no one was badly and unfairly (perhaps) under the water here.
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