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Answers on a post card.

Https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.abc.net.au/article/102953084

Https://www.abc.net.au/listen/programs/radionational-breakfast/timor-leste-president/102949512

Listen from 10.00 mins

1st October 2023

TImor-Leste plays China card played on Australia’s front porch

www.afr.com

However, the same ball has now been dropped on the Albanese government’s watch.

Canberra should have seen this delivery coming. On these pages two months ago, The Australian Financial Review’s international editor, James Curran, warned that Timor-Leste was on the brink of becoming a failed state.

No obvious plan B

The $26 billion sovereign wealth fund that keeps the country running is due to run out in 2030. A compromise on the Greater Sunrise gas project -- whereby Dili would earn 70 per cent of the royalties from gas fields estimated to contain more than $70 billion in revenue – remains in limbo amid the dispute with Woodside Energy over whether the gas should be processed on the Australian or Timor-Leste side of the Timor Sea.

There was also no obvious plan B for the country’s dire financial position if onshore gas processing in Timor-Leste proved unfeasible.

There were not only clear economic danger signs of Dili reaching out to Beijing, but also explicit diplomatic signals. In August last year, President Jose Ramos-Horta, a leading former independence activist, tried to grab Canberra’s attention by declaring that his country might play the “China card”. Yet somehow Canberra missed the warning.

Senator Wong, now the foreign minister, says she has accepted assurances from Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao – another former independence activist – that Timor-Leste will not “align” with China. Yet, the reality is that Timor-Leste’s partnership with China challenges Australia’s long-standing regional security interests and posture, which aim to ensure that the approaches to Australia’s northern coastline are not populated by hostile powers.

Potential Chinese military post

Dili’s deal with Beijing provides not only for further Chinese investment in infrastructure, agriculture and energy, but also high-level military interactions. An assertive China now appears to have secured a potential military post on Australia’s doorstep – and right next door to Indonesia.

Indonesian President Joko Widodo’s “ASEAN centrality” regional vision is to keep China engaged in the region and prevent South-East Asia from becoming a theatre for great-power competition.

As head of ASEAN, Mr Widodo insisted on Timor-Leste being offered membership of the trade bloc. But Mr Gusmao rejected joining an organisation that had failed to solve the political crisis in Myanmar – a radical chic stance in keeping with his resistance past, but at odds with the interests of young Timorese people seeking jobs and economic development.

The upshot for Indonesia, Australia and the entire region is that Timor-Leste has turned to China for economic salvation, and turned the small developing country at the crossroads of South-East Asia and the Pacific into a new focus for US-China strategic competition in the region.

The China

Https://www.takeonedigitalnetwork.com/timor-leste-president-welcomes-pm-modis-decision-to-open-indian-embassy-in-dili/

Https://www.google.com/amp/s/headtopics.com/au/east-timor-denies-security-part-of-high-level-agreement-with-china-45513453

And Japan.....

https://en.tatoli.tl/2023/09/28/timor-leste-and-japan-discuss-the-revision-of-development-cooperation-charter/15/

And now India....

https://www.mea.gov.in/press-releases.htm?dtl/37150/Visit_of_Minister_of_State_for_External_Affairs_Dr_Rajkumar_Ranjan_Singh_to_TimorLeste_September_30__October_03_2023

Http://timor-leste.gov.tl/?p=34443&n=1&lang=pt

Https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/we-have-the-money-markets-uk-bid-for-australia-s-critical-minerals-20230927-p5e7vs

Then off to Timor Leste......

Https://www.thedefensepost.com/2023/09/28/australia-army-restructuring/

Journalist: Can I get you to turn your attention to Timor Leste and China. When did the Australian Government learn of Timor Leste’s decision to sign a strategic partnership with Beijing? Was it before or after it was announced?

Wong: I’ll make a couple of comments about that. I saw Senator Birmingham's criticism of this and I have to say I thought was pretty amazing, from a government that barely engaged with Timor Leste, to have a go at this government. I've been to Timor Leste twice. I've appointed Steve Bracks as a Special Envoy to try and unlock the Greater Sunrise project, which is their key project. I've met last week with my counterpart. I would make the point that we have a comprehensive strategic partnership with China. Australia has a comprehensive strategic partnership with China. Senator Birmingham should actually perhaps look at the years of neglect and disrespect of production and development, which his party presided over, which left a vacuum and obviously others have filled it. We are in an era now with much more intense competition in the Pacific. I’ve made that very clear. We are engaging. I would note that President Horta, who I've had a number of engagements with, but also briefly caught up with in New York, just a few days ago, has made clear that Timor Leste is not seeking to align with China.

Journalist: Prime Minister Gusmao has invited Chinese investment in infrastructure resources and food security, as well as more regular military contact and this agreement make a semi-permanent Chinese military presence in the country?

Wong: That’s a big leap. I understand Timor Leste’s desire for development. And if any of the politicians throwing criticism have been there, they would know the level of development in that country is unacceptable. Their leaders desperately want to improve the lives and health outcomes of their people. We want to work with them to do that.

Journalist: You mentioned the Greater Sunrise project, considering this agreement between Timor Leste and China, should that process be expedited?

Wong: That's what we've been doing for about a year. This project has been stuck for nine years under the previous government. I said about a year ago that I want the project unstuck. I appointed Steve Bracks, who is a very long-standing supporter of Timor Leste. He has very strong relationships with those who are Members of Parliament now, particularly Prime Minister Gusmao. He’s engaged in a discussion about how we proceed with that project.

Http://www.anpm.tl/a-site-visit-made-by-president-of-anp-and-team-to-fuel-storage-tanks-at-an-esperanca-timor-oan-eto-facility-in-hera-timor-leste/

Http://www.anpm.tl/a-productive-discussion-between-anp-and-santos/

Baron hints at further farm-outs at Dunrobin, Chuditch

www.energyvoice.com

Baron Oil says it intends to seek further partners to fund drilling off East Timor and will “re-engage” next year with potential new partners for the Dunrobin prospect in the North Sea.

In an interim results update published on Monday the AIM-listed minnow (AIM:BOIL) said further work was in progress on its North Sea venture but that all its efforts were now focused on preparing for drilling at its Chuditch-1 gas discovery off Timor-Leste.

According to Baron, plans are being drawn up for a new seismic programme next year at the Dunrobin prospect in the UK’s Moray Firth.

Described by the company as “a relatively low-cost exploration well” which could target “more than 100 MMbbl of gross Pmean prospective resources with modest geological risk”, the licence is a near three-way split operated by Reabold Resources, which holds a 36% equity share, alongside Baron (32%) and Upland Resources (32%).

© Baron Oil

Map of the Dunrobin licence area.

In July the North Sea Transition Authority (NSTA) gave the venture partners a two-year extension to their Phase A licence, with a commitment to acquire a minimum of 30 square kilometres of 3D seismic data to complete coverage over the Dunrobin West prospect.

Baron said plans for this programme are now underway “with contractors, stakeholders and the NSTA.”

“On completion of this work, aimed primarily at further reducing pre-drill risks and volumetric uncertainty, the partners intend to re-engage with potentially interested third parties in respect of the drilling of an exploration well,” it added.

A ‘drill or drop’ decision for the prospect is required on or before 14 July 2025.

26 Sept, 2023

Women in New Energy 2023

More InfoRegister Free

Last year Baron said the economics of Dunrobin had been “transformed” by a the Government’s Energy Profits Levy (EPL) incentives and surging commodity prices.

That was lent further weight by a competent person’s report (CPR) prepared by RPS Group for Reabold earlier this year, which put resources at the licence at a mean 197 million barrels.

The CPR also noted that Reabold has proposed a development using a leased FPSO with subsea wells as the concept for Dunrobin West. Associated gas would be used for fuel with excess re-injected into the reservoir. Total costs for such a development were estimated at just over £400m.

Further licences under consideration

The firm posted a pre-tax loss of £847,000 for the six months ended in June 2023, but said available cash as at the end of that month stood at around £4.6m.

Looking ahead, it said it would continue to pursue “additional new venture opportunities” which would complement its existing portfolio.

This includes an application in the UK’s 33rd Licensing Round, in which Baron participated as a non-operating partner.

It noted that the NSTA had recently indicated that a

Https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=XQnY0-V5NsI

Https://www.skynews.com.au/opinion/andrew-bolt/a-chinese-military-base-in-the-south-pacific-would-be-utterly-catastrophic/video/2ad3c05ec653777f5455b40b3b0469fc

Http://timor-leste.gov.tl/?p=34320&lang=en

Got lots to talk about!!!!!! coming soon

Prime Minister Xanana highlighted as priority areas for investment in Timor-Leste, road, water and airport infrastructure, agriculture, fisheries, the oil and gas sector, particularly in the exploration of the 'greater sunrise', among other areas.

The Prime Minister, Kay Rala interested in investing in Timor-Leste, on September 22, 2023, in Hangzhou, China. 

During the meeting, investors presented their companies and expressed their interest in investing in Timor-Leste. 

The Prime Minister presented the Program of the IX Constitutional Government, informed the group of investors that the Government throughout its five-year mandate has economic development as a priority, and that Timor-Leste is open to foreign investment in various areas. 

The Head of Government emphasized the importance of foreign investment to help the development of infrastructure and the national economy.

Xanana Gusmão also highlighted that the Government intends to reform legislation linked to investment, in order to guarantee a safe and credible system for international investors. 

Prime Minister Xanana highlighted as priority areas for investment in Timor-Leste, road, water and airport infrastructure, agriculture, fisheries, the oil and gas sector, particularly in the exploration of the 'greater sunrise', among other areas.

"Private sector investors have the freedom to choose which areas they wish to invest in, and we will be available to provide assistance in a variety of areas," declared the Prime Minister.

The Head of Government recognized that Timor-Leste faces challenges in several sectors and lacks of human resources, but the people and the nation have the desire to move forward to improve the situation, with the support of investment from the foreign private sector.

The meeting was attended by the Minister of State Administration, Tomás do Rosario Cabral, the Minister of Planning and Strategic Investment, Gastão de Sousa, the Minister of Youth, Sports, Art and Culture, Nelyo Isaac Sarmento, the Ambassador of Timor-Leste in China, Abrão Santos, the Attaché for Commerce and Industry of Timor-Leste in China, Benjamin "SAIMESAK" and the former President of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Timor-Leste (CCI-TL) and current Director of Companhia Aero Dili, Lourenço de Oliveira.