Member Info for KumKuat

BB,

Who was the lead singer ?

Somm,

I’m passing the baton onto you, CC and GrimFlawless. I’ll rejoin the party when there’s news worthy of real ramping. Let’s hope they don’t c*ck it up.

Trying to catch you up on the Rampathon leaderboard as CC has obviously sold his trading pot ;-)

Current production 1689 plus SY 300 bopd shut in
153 success - 600bopd ?
Total 2589bopd @ $83/25 gross ? @ 70:30 split = $62m pa
2021 revenue H1 = $10m

The above numbers will be accurate if 153 mirrors 154. There'll probably be some depletion on SY wells due to shut in and maybe some on MJF too ? If 153 lands then we can start forecasting revenues based on initial projections of 5000bopd+. Clive has stated that the majority of the oil can be sold at export but what's the majority ? More than the 70:30 split or less ?

153 is a very important result to endorse the HD strategy and we then need to understand the FDP ie how many wells to be drilled . 154 will be the 10th well and originally 24 verticals planned but if horizontal the way forward, how may planned for 2022 ?

Add in barge rental and the annual revenue looks very healthy with 3AB and the deeps as your Brucie Bonus. Hasn't felt like this for a long time and plenty to get excited about going forward.

Clive, time for rockets not squibs please. Who knows, your director bonus incentives may come off !!

TT.

Well, they have to have more discoveries for the CPR. Nothing going to change at MJF but SY and deep success will change the landscape forever.

All pie in the sky til proven BUT imagine if A8 hit first time in the Devonian and the oil column was 1000m from c 4300m and it flowed ? Same API as the other A block wells, what would happen then. I know, it will be hyped to death , especially considering current sp. Peeps will be ramping it , all A block wells are connected and entire structure is a sea of oil. Then thee will be the chatter that Yelemes Devonian is linked and that 802 will prove that statement. In the 3P stakes, we're currently in the possible and hopefully probable and proven are around the corner.

All hypothetical at this point but not main AIM stocks could give you as much bang for your buck and as CC commented earlier, could be the darling of AIM over next few weeks, months and years. Could be the best stock of 2022, wouldn't that be great to see.

Must be right up there on the Rampathon table -:)

Yep, that about sums it up.

No pumping or dumping. Are punters actually believing that it's worth holding to see the news ! Never any guarantees unfortunately but with so much on the go, there's a good chance of some positive news.

Current market, 3.9p to buy up to 250k online and 350k max sell @ 3.725. smaller parcels at 3.75. Nobody has a scooby.

18 months in Covid so not much operational activity on his watch to date. Giving him the benefit of doubt and let’s see whether 153 is another winner and whether he’s used a different approach on A8 and 802. It’s a question I’ve asked but no response unfortunately.

16 days have elapsed since interims and we should be there with 153. Probably flowing or hopefully perforated and flowing ready for news. Waiting to add something else into the pot ? Last chance to buy sub 4p, let’s hope so :)

They can't even get his start date right ! On the website it's 2018 although i believe it was late 2018 and on the interims statement below ! As we know Clive and detail !

Board changes

'In March 2021, we were pleased to confirm the appointment of Seekwoo Shin as Chief Operating Officer. Mr Shin has been with the Group since 2019 and was previously head of the Korean National Oil Corporation's operations in Kazakhstan.'

No joshin but is Mr Shin going to be the catalyst to get the deeps whooshin at BNG. No more burnishin or embellishin the Caspian turd, kyboshin the past failures with astonishin results starting in Q4 2021. Is he going to deliver that crushin performance we’ve all been waiting for, refreshin change from the past and accomplishin results where all those before him have failed. Replenishin the faith and trust from the investment community and banishing the historic deep blues. C’mon Mr Shin, wishin you all the best in smashin it out of the park and finishin the job started 14 years ago. An astonishin performance, shiny Caspian rising from the oily depths and who knows, that £1+ shindig could still be on the cards.

You can tell I’m not working this morning :)

Somm,

Keep going with the A8 discovery theory. I'd love to see the sp replicate the A5 scenario back in 2014 but i believe that the market has got wise to 4 discoveries we've made to date and no revenue in the coffers, just $70m sunk costs. I'd rather them keep quiet until they've flowed it for 30 days but that's unlikely. They have had egg on their faces sooooo many times but maybe a Devonian find will flow at increased rates and maybe our Mr Shin is using another approach where he's underbalanced and not using the barite mud .

One thing the market doesn't want to see and that's an announcement that it's flowed at x bopd for x days before getting blocked again. All about getting it right this time and much that i still see the 5300m Devonian as a longshot, i'd want them to confirm that they have discovered oil at x API, it's flowing at x rate for x days using x choke and the reason why they believe it's commercial is because they used a different approach ie lighter mud, no loss of drilling fluid and no blockages.

I'm hoping that Mr Shin and his experience as Head Of Operations at KNOC , is going to be the differentiator to change our fortunes from the deeps. Not long to find out.

Will we sell off into Friday close or will peeps start adding knowing that news is imminent. If it sells off, fill yer boots as the odds on positive outcomes are on our favour for a change. 153 should be business as usual and anything else is a bonus.

Is the sun going to rise at long last and reward all those who have stayed the journey. The so won’t shoot north just on 153, we need the CE contract or some incredible news on A8 but that’s unlikely as they’d have to flow it for 30days . That probably means that the sp will rise gradually as opposed to the A5 spike and only a flowing deep will do it , much that I’d love to see it again, 4p-26p in short order.

The wait continues whilst keeping an eye out for a shaky shaky.

TT

News tomorrow or next week for moi. 153 news plus an A8 progress report and any other positive snippet they want to pop in.

Anybody selling now is betting that the news is not going to be good or not good enough so that the cost of re-entry is not too much. Personally i'm hoping for a blockbuster and the downside risk on a poor 153 is back to 3p maybe ? as there are so many other things on the go. Downside 20-25% max ? upside ? depends on the news but could be 100% or more and a risk worth taking.

154 sustaining 600bopd flow rates
153 - 500+ BOPD
Barge charter agreed
A8almost at TD and continued oil shows
3AB licence agreed and spud in Nov
SY licence agreed

That should shake it up and why would you be out if downside risk is only 25% ? Obviously sellers hoping that there's no good news coming on any front. Not long to find out.

Somm,

Nobody knows what the rig seller has done but he/they may have needed the money and not wishing to punt the money on Casper. He probably had a load of finance left on it, who knows.

Casper and technical data ! You have no chance of working it out. The fact that they're using the most powerful rig for 153 and the fact that they're not financially constrained, it wouldn't surprise me to see news this week, next week latest.

Un, Brent had a little look at $83 but didn't like it, more to come and through $85 by month end. I'm inb=vested in RDSB and kids are too, a great little investment since the crash to £8. Not many top FTSE companies delivering 100% capital appreciation and divis. Got to get some things right now and then !

You're showing off now !

Another 1m dumped today and i'm hoping it's Mr Rig making a tidy profit but it's probably profit taking but i don't get it with the the likelihood that some if not all the news could be positive. Each to their own i suppose and news is imminent, i was expecting this week.

To sharp for me Un.

Crude is approaching the Q4 2018 high of $85 and i believe there's more to come. Caspian revenues will be very healthy in Q2, even at current prod levels, without SY and FY accounts will make good reading.

Bid strengthening today and can sell up to 1.2m as opposed to 500k yesterday so don't let them have your stock ! Let the price edge up to news and i was hoping for some this week.

TT

Meanwhile, oil shot up and tearing $82 , nice.

....lol, yin and yang.

All results possible but my hat is firmly in the reward camp BUT always feet on the ground and no chicken counting, this is Casper after all.

Or would you prefer, A8 on the final stretch to TD, 3 oil shows so far from 4500m and looks likely that the oil interval could be 1000m or deeper. This field could be huge and bigger than the 58km2 expectation. The whole BNG acreage could be being fed from a massive reservoir in the Devonian and it looks likely that 801/802 will be fed from the same source. We're all Casper squillionaires :) Better now .

Not saying that Casper can't mess it up but the pendulum has swung into the reward segment with the likelihood that next 3 news items are likely to be positive ie 153/SY and CE charter, the latter being the least likely. Add in the A8 continued updates and confirmation of 141/146 start dates and the investor interest will pick up. Could get 3AB licence and agreed spud date and there's enough in the pot to fuel real positivity on the boards with the anticipation of a change of luck on A8 outcome.

We know the worst case scenarios, 154 rapid depletion undermining the HD strategy, no SY or 3AB licence, no barge charter and A8 a duffer :(

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