Member Info for komakino

Yes I think in the 30's without any of the Exxon/petronas shenanigans would be plausible. The good thing is we have a solid business in Nigeria and a lot of potential in Niger to keep us at a decent sp level, though I suspect most of us are here for mulitples of where we are currently. Maybe this month is the next stepping stone if we close out SS.

TiL, I think most of the rise from the low 20's to 40p was as a result of the Exxon/Petronas deal, which then fell away as I suspect some players knew that there were difficulties with the transaction. I reckon the current price of 26p reflects where we were on Nigeria, though I can't see why we wouldn't be higher than 26p on Nigeria alone now given the continued progress, but couldn't see it being near 40p.

Anyway, most of us are here for more than Nigeria, so all eyes on the SS deal news at the end of the month.

Evening RR. Thommie, over on ADVFN, and one of the more knowledgeable posters posted this a few days ago:

'As I was speculating in my former posts, this effective date of january 2022 is absolutely outstanding. Just to repeat it without detail.

The revenue we are looking at in 2022: 60 000bopd x 365d x100$ brent average = 2,2 billion$.

2023: 50 000 bopd x 180d x80$ brent avg = 0,7billion$.

So Overall revenue for the 18 months to date is around 3 billion $. Only petronas and save know how much of free cash flow that amount produced to date, but as I outlined before comparing it to tullows 2022 final results that had nearly the same revenue, but a much worse free cashflow number due to high interest rates to serve their debt (350m$ in 2022) very high capex costs and decom costs and still were able to reduce their net debt by around 250m$ in 2022 I have no doubt that the final consideration after adjustments would be much smaller than the headline price of 1,25 billion$, even more if some of that were amounts only due if certain milestones over the years relating to oil price and production are met. If you only substract the 700m$ in 2022 if it would be equal to tullow and add another 200-300m$ for H1 23 there is not much left to pay...

So again. If this deal reaches government approval we will all be very lucky. The sp wont be able to ignore that even with the war in sudan...'

Thanks TIL. Interesting article on Petrosen

https://african.business/2023/04/dossier/petrosen-our-ambition-is-to-make-senegal-an-oil-and-gas-giant

Possibly TiL, but unless they and Cameroon nationalise the pipeline too then there's no legal procedure I can think of for them to freeze SAVE out, which the article doesn't suggest with those %'s. As it stands Chad and Cameroon can both outvote SAVE when it comes to any decision making anyway. As always though, we'll just have to wait for the next RNS to clarify things.

The %'s mentioned in the last energy voice article you posted were SHT 53.77%, Cameroon 15.17% which leaves exactly 31.06% which is the amount SAVE acquired under the Exxon agreement, less the 10% they were proposing to sell to Cameroon. If that article is correct it would mean the the sale will be approved and SAVE will then only need to RNS the completion of that 10% sale. As Chad can't nationalise that part of the Exxon deal I'd be very surprised if that's not how it plays out regarding COTCO.

Smeddyo, nothing IR give out is price sensitive so I'm not sure what advantage you think is being gained over other investors. It can be useful to have them clarify certain things in RNS's or from presentations, and sometimes to confirm published plans are on track etc, so nothing untoward with getting information from them.

Well next time you invest in a share I suggest you do a bit of research first, as the CEO had made it as clear as day they were looking for large acquisitions which would likely result in a RTO and a suspension. The last acquisition by Savannah itself resulted in a suspension of almost 7 months also, so there was plenty of information there telling you the likelihood of this if you had bothered to do some reading.

Well if we end up with 31% with 10% sold to Cameroon as per the previous RNS for $44.9m and the new Cotco regime ratify that then I'd expect an RNS soonish. That would be a good result for us and with the Doba oilfield nationalisation to be decided via the tribunal at a later date then it won't be a bad outcome at all for Save. Top that up with a deal on SS and who knows, all of this could have been worth the wait :-)

Personally, after their stance at the AGM, I think they'll just keep quiet on this until we get the arbitration ruling, probably next year. If we get the SS deal over the line, particularly if we have an effective date of Jan 2022 as mentioned as a possibility in Sunbed's post, then I think we can all chill about CC and let it take it's course. Still a big IF though at this moment in time.

The reality, however, is less clear-cut. Opposed to the acquisition of Exxon Mobil assets by Savannah Energy in their country, the Chadian authorities nationalized them and entrusted their management to Tchad Petroleum Company (TPC), created for the needs of the cause. But the case is still pending before the International Court of Arbitration of the International Chamber of Commerce in Paris. As a result, despite his dismissal and although he has appointed an interim in the person of Stéphane Soumahoro, Nicolas de Blanpré continues to act and present himself as general manager of Cotco. "The Cotco offices in Douala will be closed on July 4 and 5, 2023. Employees are asked to work from home for those who can," he said in a July 3, 2023 message to staff.

By convening a board of directors on July 4, Chad hopes to truly take control of Cotco with the appointment of the company's leaders. To do this, N'Djamena asked Yaoundé for " good co-management ", we learned on June 19, 2023 at the end of an audience between President Paul Biya and the Secretary General of the Presidency of the Republic of Chad. , Gali Ngothé Gatta, emissary of the Chadian President, Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno. This co-management would materialize in particular by the joint constitution of the management team.

Chad has also undertaken before the CEMAC Commission (Cameroon, Congo, Gabon, Chad, CAR and Equatorial Guinea), to retrocede to the National Hydrocarbons Company (SNH), the secular arm of the State of Cameroon in oil and gas exploration and exploitation, part of its shares in Cotco. In a confidential letter sent on June 2, 2023 to the Chadian Minister of Hydrocarbons by the Managing Director of SNH, Adolphe Moudiki, we learned that Cameroon is demanding the retrocession of 20% of the 53.77% of the assets currently held by the Chad in the share capital of Cotco. But Chad is proposing to transfer an "additional participation greater than 10%".

It is not known for the moment if the board of directors of this July 4 has worked on this question. We are also waiting to know the fate that Chad and Cameroon intend to reserve for the 41.06% of Cotco shares claimed by Savannah Energy. Just as we are waiting to see how the British oil and gas junior will react to these developments.

hTtps://www-investiraucameroun-com.translate.goog/energie/0407-19550-cotco-un-nouveau-dg-nomme-face-aux-menaces-de-savannah-energy-de-fermer-le-pipeline-tchad-cameroun?fbclid=IwAR2yjilI7T7ELXYXvJ9iwGnVHC6OruZ-IJXcu80JnXuoEmrwqdOZaJuo2Ck&_x_tr_sl=fr&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

(Business in Cameroon) - A board meeting of Cameroon Oil Transportation Company (Cotco) was held on July 4, 2023 in Douala, we learn from sources inside the company. " The first issue of this meeting is the appointment of new leaders of the company ", indicate the same sources. According to the first echoes from Douala, the Cameroonian Bako Harouna (photo) has been brought to the head of this company in charge of operating the Cameroonian part of the pipeline through which Chad exports all its oil. This magistrate by training was until his appointment, deputy director general of the Autonomous Port of Kribi. He will be assisted by the Chadian Haoua Daoussa Déby. The former number 2 of the N'Djamena Refining Company was before her appointment Chad's representative to Cotco.

This appointment seems to have been accelerated by current events within this society. Indeed, according to a letter from the Secretary General of the President of the Republic of Cameroon addressed on June 30, 2023 to the Secretary of State at the Cameroonian Ministry of Mines, Industry and Technological Development, of which Investir au Cameroun obtained a copy , officials appointed to head Cotco by Savannah Energy are threatening to shut down the pipeline. According to Ferdinand Ngoh Ngoh's letter, these threats should be carried out as of June 30. But, according to our information, "in view of the serious consequences that would result from the closure of the Chad-Cameroon pipeline and the danger that such an action would pose to the Cotco company", the Cameroonian authorities have taken "precautionary measures" to ensure the proper functioning of this infrastructure. Our sources report, for example, the presence on July 4, 2023 of the police at the company's headquarters in Douala.

Indeed, Savannah Energy claims the acquisition of 41.06% of the shares of Cotco held by the American Exxon Mobil. This acquisition allowed the British oil and gas junior to take control of the company. On the strength of this, during a board meeting held on May 24, 2023 in Paris, it appointed Nicolas de Blanpré as CEO. Except that with the realization of the purchase of 31% of the shares of Cotco then held by the Malaysian Petronas by the Société des hidrocarbures du Tchad (SHT), N'Djamena took control of the company with 53.77% of the shares. , and held a general meeting on the same day in the same city. On occasion, the directors representing Savannah Energy have been dismissed, including Nicolas de Blanpré, on the grounds that the British oil and gas junior, no longer being a member of the consortium operating the Doba field in Chad, no longer has the right, according to Cotco's articles of association, to hold shares in the company.

Interesting post from Sunbed over on ADVFN:

'Following my posts this morning airing my concerns, I decided to call our NOMAD Strand Hanson. Late this afternoon I had a call back from Ritchie Balmer and it was a very good call. Whilst my source of original info is solid, I was reassured by Ritchie about where we’re currently at. Here are a few snippets:-

Ritchie has been active on this transaction since before it was announced to us in December 2024 and is very close to the detail as things currently stand.

An extension to the 6 month rule was granted until 28th July based on the demonstrable progress that has been achieved with the deal and a clear line of sight to proposed completion date.

Strand are not working up any alternative paths should 28th July not be hit. This led me to believe that they believe that the date should be hit for completion.

I asked about any main differences re this deal coming back to market and the Exonn. Chad deal. He mentioned a very big difference was that Chad deal was announced on the deemed consent rule, whereby pre-emption rights were not exercised within the time window so SAVE proceeded and announced based on deemed consent. I think this will play a very big part in our favour with regard to the ICC ruling. However, the SS deal does not have any deemed consent element. The SS deal has many strands which need to complete but this deal required Explicit Consent from the SS Government which is being worked on!

He clearly stated tha the final part of the deal needed before its 100% complete is shareholder approval with a vote to take place 2.55 to 3 weeks after the admission document.

I asked about economic interest date and he could not be certain of it as was doing from memory but mentioned that he thought it could be 1st January 2022.

All in all he seemed very relaxed with the situation and extension and as we all know but he also stated, that these types of extension are not uncommon.

Finally as the Explicit Government sign off is a key part of the deal, I’m certain from what he said that we can not issue an Admission Document until SS Government sign-off is in place. The only thing left to do once the document is issued will be to get shareholder approval which we all know is a foregone conclusion.

Sleep well x'

Yes, that would be my way of thinking too with regard to the date. I think most of us probably are happy to wait till we have govt. approvl, assuming we do, rather than relist without it; though to behonest, it won't make any difference either way in the long term as long as we do eventually get it.

The other assertion from Sunbed was that the 28th is a fixed date from the Nomad who wouldn't sanction a further extension. More sceptical on that one but as I say it's anyone's guess.

No, unfortunately there's no provenance for any of Sunbed's assertions, so it's up to the individual to decide for themselves whether to believe or not. Personally I suspect they are true but would be nice to have at least a general idea where the information comes from.

They don't usually put up the AGM video on the website, so suspect not hubenstein. Either way, we should get some more detail on Niger at some point this year, assuming we come back to market at some point!

Hi hubenstein, if you're referring to Niger first oil I heard it as q4 this year. The question was referring to a broker note that said first oil Q4 2024 and AK was clear that it was this year.

Zengas'notes copied below suggest the same

'Niger - Flow testing in Q4. Book up to 35 mmbls as reserves by year end/early 2024. First oil earlier than previously indicated. As for further exploration, waiting for development up and runnning - pacing it on self funding or bringing in a partner. '

He also confirmed first oil from Niger would be this year and not Q4 next year as one of the broker notes stated.

This is the 3rd AGM where i have registered and never got sent the link until I emailed them after it was sent out.

Managed to get in for the q&a session though.

CYB, with regard to your question on the Naira devaluation the other day, AK said it was a big positive for the company and referred to the true up clause to confirm there would be no loss of revenue from the devaluation. No questions on Chad/Cameroon/SS allowed, so just focused on Niger and Nigeria.