Member Info for komakino

This was the order of the Gabon court that Chad were trying to unpick:

In view of the urgency;

[6].

Order CITIBANK GABON SA to maintain the freeze on COTCO SA's bank accounts in its books until the disputes between COTCO's shareholders have been finally resolved;

[7].

We also order, if necessary, the freezing of these accounts again until the final settlement of the disputes between its shareholders, and in particular between the Chadian party and the petitioning company;

[8].

We state that only transactions related to the payment of salaries, taxes and social security contributions can be debited from the accounts;

[9].

We hereby order the immediate provisional execution of the present order and before registration;

[10].

Costs to be borne by the petitioners.

Delivered in our chambers on July 14, 2023

Yes, that's pretty much the gist PSB123

Judge's Order: 'Accordingly, the responsible managers of Respondents Citibank, N.A. and Citigroup, Inc. shall forthwith unequivocally instruct the managers of Citibank Gabon, S.A. to comply with the present order of the Libreville Commercial Court in Gabon, and to preserve the status quo by maintaining the present freeze of the COTCO funds until resolution of the COTCO shareholders' disputes, except for amounts necessary for the ordinary course of payment of COTCO's employees, taxes, and its existing subcontractors and suppliers essential to COTCO's operation of the pipeline. (Signed by Judge Louis L. Stanton on 9/15/2023)'

https://www.pacermonitor.com/public/case/50259183/Savannah_Midstream_Investment_Limited_v_Citibank_NA_New_York_et_al

For info, oral argumanet set for 3pm New York time today before the presiding judge, so looks like there won't be too long to wait for the court's decision.

Yes, LST, both parties have now submitted their statements. The judge has given today for both parties to submit their responses and then they will make a decision. Hopefully won't take too long, but reading the Citibank document today, the Gabon court freeze on the assets is still in place. Citibank don't believe any further action is required though Savannah are saying it is because of Chad's attempts to unfreeze the Gabon court ruling. Won't be surprised to see the judge rule in favour of Citibank on this one, though there are numerous other ways Save can recoup monies if the arbitration finds in their favour, specifically through the international banking system which all monies have to go through.

For info: extract from Eight Capital Partners' year end results RNS this morning

'Supply@ME Capital Plc ("SYME): Inventory securitisation

SYME is an inventory monetisation business based on a novel asset securitisation concept, enabled by an innovative software platform. SYME is listed on the Standard List of the London Stock Exchange. SYME's share price has not performed well in the year and ECP's £38,000 investment at 31 December 2021 at a share price of £0.0017 has seen a drop to £0.00083 at the year end, with a total fall in value of over £18,000 in the year. Although the share price reduction has been a source of concern, the Board recognises that the concept and possibilities for SYME were, and still are, interesting once a critical mass of investment capital to support securitisations can be delivered by SYME's management.'

Citibank's response to Savannah's petition

https://jusmundi.com/en/document/other/en-savannah-midstream-investment-limited-v-republic-of-chad-sht-overseas-petroleum-limited-sht-doba-pipeline-investment-inc-societe-nationale-des-hydrocarbures-snh-and-cameroon-oil-transportation-company-cotco-s-a-respondents-memorandum-of-law-in-opposition-to-verified-petition-for-injunctive-relief-in-aid-of-foreign-arbitration-friday-8th-september-2023#other_document_34369

Struck out for lack of merit according to Punch

https://punchng.com/breaking-tribunal-dismisses-apms-petition-against-tinubu-shettima/

Thanks RR, we all appreciate you sharing this with us, so many thanks.

Quick question, when you say 'NOMAD will decide on further extn if not completed by end Sept but AK will def want to comeback without ALL approvals inc Gov consent ' do you mean 'AK will def NOT want to come back without ALL approvals'?

Attornies for each of the parties have submitted their notice of appearance which they have to do on or before they apopear in court, so suspect this will be heard fairly quickly.

Ah ok, thanks cyb

Thanks cyb, interesting observations as usual. Regarding the Naira peg removal, AK didn't mention hedging per se, but he said the removal of the peg was a positive and because of the true-up clause in the Accugas contract there would be no loss of revenue to Savannah, so I think your 9.4p for Nigeria is probably very conservative.

Thanks Sailplane. Exactly what Chad did and we know what happened there. so won't be putting too much faith in that particular promise.

From the report, the average barrels per day from Jan 2022 (assuming that is the effective date) up to July2023 has been just under 118,000.

Bloomberg article showing previous months Soutrh Sudan shipments

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-14/oil-exports-continue-to-flow-as-sudan-s-war-leaves-pipeline-untouched

With the Seven acquisition, there were question marks over the profitability of the assets, as Seven was in deep financial trouble because they weren't getting paid consistently. Getting the World Bank to guarantee payments was critical, even though we haven't had to call on the guarantees. So the market was wanting to see the accounts for a couple of years imo before attributing value to it.

I think today's AIM market is also very different to what it was a number of years ago. There appears to be less money about and whereas a few years ago an announcment of a drilling program would send the sp of a junior oiler rising sharply, these days it doesn't register.

Key for me is the purchase price of the asset. If we end up spending $500m or less because of the effective date then I think we'll get a strong rise, but as to putting a number to that, it really is anyone's guess. Best thing to do is to see what the brokers value it at and then divide by 4!!

Https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/06/nigers-coup-adds-to-chaos-in-the-sahel-but-it-may-also-offer-some-hope

Yes, good points Zengas. I guess we possibly look at these deals a bit too simplistically, partly becasue we want it to happen quickly and partly because we don't understand the complexities that may be there. Having said that, we are working from Save's original published timelines and I guess any delays to that cause us to think the worst. Human nature I guess, particularly when a lot of people have potentially life changing amounts invested. Personally, I'm ok with things as it stands as I think AK is shrewd and will have considered all the scenarios.

Yes, I've always thought it should have been a relatively straightforward transaction. The most time consuming part of the Exxon transaction was the IT transfer I believe, which was estimated at 6 months, so with no such process required it's frustrating for it to still be ongoing, particularly when SS have made a big deal of saying they are open for investment.

Regarding the previous post about the COTCO email, Thommie from ADVFN made the valid point that the person sending the email was actually one fo the Save directors (a COTCO board member) so maybe it doesn't carryu the same weight as if it was one of the other non-Save directors. Anyway, he did make a good point regarding the options open toCOTCO if the arbitration award goes Save's way

'In the end they dont have any other options as all is decided by money as usual. As the money is managed outside the country by international banks that control the in and outflows of money from liftings at the kribi port or payments to the shareholders and to cotco - chad and cameroon can do nothing. The International banks dont have an option not to listen to the ICC ruling, otherwise they will get sanctioned as well... So again all depends on the final ICC ruling, if they rule in saves favour I have absolutely no doubt, that save will get its money quite fast through the revenue from liftings at kribi. There is no other option for chad to sell or use the oil inside their country in such quantity. They will always need the International markets. After the nationalisation of the 40% Exxon stake and the purchase of the 30% petronas stake plus the stake they already owned after buying the 25%.chevron stake some years ago they would own literally the whole doba fields. At current production of around 25-30k bopd the revenue from liftings should be quite big to pay down any arbitration ruling very fast by confiscating the kribi lifting money. If the ICC would award save with something around 1 billion $ the whole standoff would be worth all the time. 1 billion of revenue for work of 3-4 years sounds pretty fantastic and would open much more headroom for further even bigger aquisitions... Lets dream...'

Yes,, no doubt a lot of uncertainty for probably a good while longer but it's good to see COTCO abiding by the decision, which should mean that SAVE continue to get it's fair share of revenues till the dispute is finally settled. Will be interesting to see the half yearly results end of September.