RE: AT least its not just us5 Oct 2023 11:45
Gearing up for the next leg of growth Touchstone lifted the veil last week on the next phase of its evolution with an upbeat Capital Markets Day. The start-up of Cascadura has catapulted Touchstone to the largest onshore producer in Trinidad, with production of ~10,000 boepd. However, with 205 development drilling locations identified across the portfolio as well as 24 exploration locations on the Ortoire block alone, the portfolio contains significant further organic growth potential to exploit. Moreover, with most of the infrastructure already in place to produce over 33,000 boepd of net production, alongside the necessary drilling approvals, Touchstone’s next leg of growth should be smoother and deliver very strong returns. - Chasing 20,000 boepd. The start-up of Cascadura has gone smoothly, with the wells performing in line with expectations and boosting net production to ~10,000 boepd. Cash flow from this project over the coming months will allow management to start raising activity levels across the portfolio in pursuit of the next target milestone of 20,000 boepd. Near-term, the focus is expected to be on low-cost development opportunities that leverage Touchstone’s significantly underutilised infrastructure at Cascadura and Coho. Critically, environmental permits are already in place to drill up to eight additional wells on Cascadura and two on Coho to fill facility capacities, eliminating the risk of regulatory delays. As a result, the next leg of Touchstone’s growth should be swifter and lower risk, and come with significantly lower capital intensity. - Building blocks in place. All gas from the Ortoire block is sold under fixed price contract (paid monthly in US$) providing a steady, predictable cash flow stream. This gives management the space to consider the best use of additional funds, which could include more capex, dividends, buybacks, or acquisitions. Touchstone looks to be nicely teed up. The hard work has been done, with the building blocks in place (infrastructure, rig, drilling approvals, gas sales contract, significant new acreage) to deliver further strong growth in the coming years. Our risked NAV based price target of 87p/sh remains unchanged. However, we view this valuation as conservative as it consists almost entirely of producing assets, with very little value given to Touchstone’s considerable exploration prospectivity. - Exploration set to resume. In anticipation of the step change in cash flow Cascadura will bring, management has been expanding its exploration acreage, high grading its portfolio within the Herrera turbidite fairway. While still to be finalised, asset exchanges, licence awards and licence negotiations look set to secure Touchstone a dominant acreage position across this play and make it the largest onshore acreage holder in Trinidad.