Member Info for komakino

Moho, the main purpose of the RNS was to inform of the extension, not just to say there would be another one next week. Would be surprised if we didn't get one later today though.

Well I've never been one to follow the crowd so I'll be putting my phone to one side and taking the day off to enjoy a nice glass of malbec, with a few salted peanuts and a nice chicken balti. Looks like this might actually be approaching the home straight! Will be interesting to read the update next week.

Ha, yes, all good thanks RR. Busy decorating my son's new house (for free) so not got much idle time at the moment. Fingers crossed for something positive on SS in just over a week, but not got a clue how that one is going to turn out. Would be nice to get back trading again for sure.

Thanks Zengas, appreciate your thoughts and taking the time to articulate them to us. RR will be chuffed that you've confirmed his thoughts on the sp, albeit with a tad more reasoning ;-)

There is nothing I can find in the public domain about the request from Savannah or the decision of the ICCI. The last thing we saw was Savannah winning an injunction to prevent the monies from the oil being used by COTCO. That injunction is under appeal but has not progressed since last September. Therefore, to me, this suggests Savannah were asking for those monies to be transferred to them pending the aribtration decision. Not that surprising then that the ICCI rejected this and so we would just be in the same position as previously where all monies are effect in limbo. Could be wrong but that's the logical conclusion from the currently known published documents.

Https://www.kapwing.com/65f0a60c5930677926614b1d/studio/editor/subtitles

Not sure if the link will work (it's a transalation of a Facebook video by the Chad Ministry of Hydrocarbons using kapwing)

Original post in French is here: https://www.facebook.com/MHETCHAD/videos/420477903994368/

Essentially it seems that Savannah requested the arbitration to allow Savannah to secure the oil revenues whilst the arbitration ruling is decided and the arbitration has denied the request.

For info, some observations from Thommie on ADVFN re Scotpak's post:

isnt another part of the problem that save isnt able to exchange the naira into dollars directly after getting paid due to an illiquid exchange market and thus is forced to hold big parts of the revenue in naira? So if thats still the case I expect another big fx loss in q1 as the received revenue in Naira will have lost most part of its value due to another big devaluation throughout this timeframe.

The reason they dont close the refinancing is the big devaluation of the Naira. Just imagine they close the refinancing in Naira now at an exchange rate of 1:1500. That would mean they roll over their current Dollar liability into a Naira liability on the terms of 1:1500. Their revenue is based on a fixed dollar gas price that is paid in the Naira exchange rate. So just imagine following scenario: save closes refinancing of the Dollar debt into a Naira debt now at an exchange rate of 1:1500. At 100$ debt as an example that would translate into a future debt of 150000 Naira. So we would need toll sell gas worth 100$ to pay the debt. If then in the following years the Naira gets much stronger and returns to sth like 1:750 we are getting paid only half of the Naira amount. So we would need to sell gas worth 200$ to pay down this naira debt. That means our real debt would double just on this. It would be very stupid to close such a deal now. On the other hand it would have been fantastic if save would have been able to do the refinancing a year ago when the Naira exchange rate was around 1:450? (I only guess). That would have meant, that they would only need 1/3 of time to pay it back as they are currently getting 3 times the amount of naira for their Dollar fixed contracts. Sadly that didnt happen. So in my opinion it would be the best not to do any refinancing now as long as we expect that the nigerian economy improves over the years to come and the exchange rate would then drop dramatically. Just let it be in dollars and pay it down, in the best case the earnings from a sucessful South Sudan deal will pay this dollar based debt down ... So to say a big failure of save mgmt not to refinance into a naira based debt before the big naira devaluation happened, as they planned to the do that since nearly 3 years? Refinancing now could just turn into an even bigger nightmare if there exchange rate drops inthe future and the naira getting strong er again...

Thanks Scotpak, interesting and as always appreciated.

With regard to SAVE, I wonder if said poster is still feeling the same way when he came back on here a while back to tell us 'So glad I disposed of 90% of my holding before suspension', before putting the money into I3E and PRD.

No one can foresee how things will always turn out but coming back to gloat is never a good move.

Thanks for all the informative posts TiL :-)

AK said the plan was for another acquisition in 2023. Assuming that SS is the reason for the delay in announcing this, it's more than reasonable to assume it would have have an effective date of early 2023 at the least. So there is definitely the possibility in my mind that we could announce the SS deal quickly followed by an SPA for another acquistion.

The sun is shining so feeling optimistic this morning :-)

You never know, Til :-)

https://www.sudanspost.com/world-bank-pledges-to-back-south-sudans-financial-reforms/

Interesting PF, thanks for researching. Given the keeness that AIM seem to have for SAVE to relist, then one would think they could show some flexibility. For instance, if we signed an SPA for a new acquisition which would ordinarily result in a RTO, once we came back after acquiring SS (fingers crossed) then the likelihood is that the new enlarged company would no longer require an RTO for the new acquisition, so we could be back trading straightaway.

All conjecture but we have another 2 months to while away now so there's not much else to do :-)

Not sure of the answer to that PF. I'd imagine they need both, approvals from the varioul ministries plus the overall approval of the govt., but happy to be corrected. Either way, I do think that the extension shows that the powers that be (AIM, Nomad) have been convinced that the transaction still has a good chance of completing.

RR, for the AD doc. to be published I'm pretty sure that the finance workstream would need to be completed. You would have thought that any new timeframe given by SAVE i.e. 2nd April would include that as well. At some point I would expect the financiers will be satisfied that things can re-commence and that the end date reflects that.

My thought when I saw that included Noix, was that it was a simply a little more information for shareholders indicating that we won't see the AD until they have secured the in-country approvals. The update today was fine with with me. I know others want to recommence trading and have access to their cash, which is understandable, but I'm taking today's update to signify we are more likely than I'd thought previously to complete this transaction.

63.12% according to my records

One of the senior reservoir engineers at GPOC messaged me last week to say he had just met a bunch of people who had introduced themselves as working for Savannah Energy in Juba. He didn't go into any details but does maybe sound as something is stirring at last.

Nice one PF, that looks encouraging indeed!

Thanks RR, appreciated as ever.

Crikey cyb, it took 12 years from signing to get ratified! Better hunker back down in the bunker for a decade at least then!