Member Info for komakino

I guess there are a couple of things that might be in our favour:

a) The existing members do not want to take on any more inctreased risk, particularly with the current situation in Sudan

b) They may not have the requisite knowledge to take over the Petronas assets having had no handover, though it's difficult to know if that's an issue given they are joint holders anyway. I guess it depends on division of responsibilities.

The fact that we haven't had an immediate RNS suggests that AK still believes there is a deal to be agreed. As you say CYB, it's not going to be on the terms we originally hoped for, but if a) and b) hold true then there is a chance we could get a deal that is still a good one for SAVE.

The RNS is most likely the pre-cursor to the likes of 'InvestingGenius', 'Hedgehog100' and 'AmyStake' to reappear so they can offload their stranded shares at a higher price, though no doubt they will have new handles this time.

Difference being that AK was not a silver spoon graduate of Eton/Winchester so would imagine he's had a bit more in terms of real life experiences than the other 2. Plus he's heavily invested financially as well as reputationally in SAVE which doesn't apply to Sunak or Cameron's time in office. His Judo prowess notwithstanding, I know who I'd not want to mess with. Still, I take your point RR.

I guess there are a couple of possibilities why we remain suspended. Firstly, as per the RNS, we are progressing this alternative transaction which on the face of it means we are negotiating with Nilepet. It's unlikely that will drag out much longer, but if AK believes he can get a deal with SS that is good for SAVE taking into account all the issues of the war etc then my view is let him finish off that process on the understanding that he won't just take a deal for the sake of it. After all he's got a lot of personal investment tied up in this company. Second possibility is that he's agreed with the regulator/Nomad that even though the SS deal is unlikely he can quickly finalise an alternative transaction that SAVE have been working on which would allow a relatively quick return to market via a new admission doc.

I don't think we are going to have to wait too much longer to see how this plays out.

Morning Til, thanks for all the informative posts as ever. Regarding the SS latest, not sure I'd expect anything specific from Petronas regarding the SS announcement as it just fits in with their exit process. For me the big question is whether Savannah are one of the potential partnerships the SS govt. refer to. You'd like to think so given the messaging from Savannah that a proposed alternative transaction is progressing, though whether that comes to fruition or not is anyone's guess.

It doesn't make you wonder at all if you take a balanced view of reward vs risk. The divestment of the majors in these jurisidictions present a once in a lifetime opportuntiy of a transformative nature. Anyone not able to see that should stick to premium bonds.

TG2D has certainly changed their tune since this post on RTOP in 2023

TwoGood2Die

Posts: 3,255

Price: 127.00

No Opinion

SYME Mark 2 - Rinse & Repeat!20 Sep 2023 08:09

All the signs of SYME Mark 2...

Compleyely unrealistic valuations with no basis to them and unworkable business model...basically pie in the sky!

Objective to make a quick buck for AZ and chums on an IPO!

Next step to cover high cash monthly burn rate got to pay these executivrs tonnes for doing nought invite Venus and chums with convertible loan notes to dump on gullible retail Imvestors...

Same rampers like Savvy and Peakhope turn up here untill the list of gullible retail investors who got ensnared becomes exhausted like they did on SYME and the share price crumbles because the business hasn't a hope of ever becoming profitable in the forseable future!

Rinse and Repeat!

That's my understanding RR so you could contend that Chad will just siphon off the money to somewhere out of reach. However, as TiL points out, it should be straightforward enough to recover from future loadings if we win the arbitration so not sure it's a massive deal either way.

Https://jusmundi.com/en/document/decision/en-savannah-midstream-investment-limited-v-republic-of-chad-sht-overseas-petroleum-limited-sht-doba-pipeline-investment-inc-societe-nationale-des-hydrocarbures-snh-and-cameroon-oil-transportation-company-cotco-s-a-order-of-the-united-states-court-of-appeals-for-the-second-circuit-friday-14th-june-2024#decision_65315

Olderandmorebitter, given that Petronas has successfully managed this business for many years why would any rational person want AK to pull out of the deal when you have absolutely no idea what is being negotiated at this present time. Far better to allow AK to exercise his judgement as CEO given he understands all of the facts and complexities of this. If this deal is secured then it would follow that it would be a good deal for Savannah. If such a deal can't be agreed then allow AK to exercise his judgment at that point and pull out. It's ironic you ask Zengas whether it is all about AK when it is you who are completely biased in your view of him, because you used your monies from selling down your Savannah holding to invest in AIM shares that have quite obviously lost you money. And in a bizarre twist of logic you blame AK for that. Quite laughable really.

Noix, if there was another SPA in the offing then I imagine it would be announced irrespective of the SS transaction as per the SIPEC SPA recently. My reading of the RNS is that the Septemeber update is directly related to the SS transaction. It could just be a holding statement which means they can make an update if there is a breakthrough in discussions or just publish the usual 'transaction ongoing' statement as per previous updates. Based on TiL's comment in a previous post

'....clearly Savannah as per the petronas terms was rejected in March 2024 and since than the company has kept on releasing RNS's to say advancing workstreams towards completion so it makes me think that the alternative deal referenced in savannah's rns this week would have been in the works since March 2024 and not something that they started to engage this week based on Petronas withdrawal. '

then if discussions have been under way since March and are actually progressing towards an agreement then they may feel they will have something ready for release in September. All guesswork but at least with the 60 day notice we should know either way by early October whether this has any legs or not.

I think TiL has summarised it perfectly in their 12:51 post today. Premature in my opinion to be castigating AK when we don't know the outcome of the deal yet. Frustrating as it is regarding communications I think the time to ask questions on the strategy is later and not at this point when we have no idea whether he can finalise it or not. If he does finalise then the means will have justified the end imo.

Tier, if you want to list your questions I'll send them on to IR for you :-)

Agree TiL. It's easy to whine on an anonymous bulletin board but note that none of those complaining about AK took the opportunity to make their points to him at the AGM.

Tier, now you have the approval of our old and bitter troll, you can sell up on relist and then reinvest in some AIM dogs with your money, and come back and blame AK for your future financial woes ;-)

Chicuelo, the only way SAVE can relist is by either abandoning or closing the SS acquisition. Even though it's been frustrating for all of us, there is no doubt a mixed view on what the preference is. Mine is to carry on and see if a deal can be agreed with SS now that Petronas have left the field. Feels like it won't be a significant amount of time before that position is reached now.

Yes, hard to disagree with that Moho.

Chicuelo/Moho, I'm struggling to understand how you think there is a serious possibility of SAVE not returning to market. I can understand your unhappiness about the extended process and the communications, but if you attended the AGM or viewed the webcast I can't see how you would come to the conclusion that the investment is lost when, as a bare minimum, we have a thriving business in Nigeria.

Snaffleman, my post was not mine per se, but just a re-post of a twitter message from someone else, mainly for the benefit of longshorttrade.

The one advantage Savannah have over any other potential operator e.g. Perenco is that they will have done the requisite handover from Petronas, so it might be difficult for another operator to manage the operations effectively without that knowledge

Lets say P/E valuations stay in the doldrums and nobody wants to own oil co's

P/E=2

With £1bn buybacks over 3 years @ average share price of £1.20

833m shares removed

MCap= £1.6bn

Shares in issue 500m

Share price= £3.20

As long as FCF keeps pumping investors will get paid

Scenario 1

At 900m Shares in issue and £800m FCF

You could be looking at an annual dividend of 50p per share

Scenario 2

At 500m Shares in issue and £800m FCF

You could be looking at an annual dividend of £1 per share

What would your returns look like in 2028 under both these scenarios?

A £10,000 investment at roughly todays price of 25p for easier maths

Under scenario 1

900m shares in issue

Share price £5

Dividend of 50p

Shares valued at £200,000

Annual Dividend £20,000

Under scenario 2

Shares in issue 500m

Share Price £3.20

Dividend of £1

Shares Valued at £128,000

Annual Dividend £40,000

I personally believe these 2 scenarios are somewhere in the ball park of the type of returns you would expect to see from a £10,000 investment in SAVE