Member Info for Know0

MatttheBrave - chill fella - all he was doing was trrying to show someone who is now panicking about his holding that he has to make his own decision.

There is no need for anyone to disrespect others - read / dont read, thats our choices.

Come on guys, we're all in this to make money and lets hope we do - didnt expect us to close 16th at just over 46p but we are where we are.

Schroeders top up was circa 46p Friday - Barclays last week said short term target was 80p

These guys KNOW a hell of a lot more than us.

Lets all play nicely GLA

We will be on Discord chatting from 07.30 tmrw if anyone wishes to feed in analysis
https://discord.gg/sK3pACwN

GL

If CPI sell Axelos at anything like the valuation we discussed yesterday, then a special dividend would be possible

30% of sales proceeds to thank shareholders and 70% to further reduce debt - sounds like an option to me

Who knows though? This is huge speculation - no idea of Sale Price, until tmrw, we dont know debt levels, or if debt has been restructured

If there is a Going Concern qualification again we are looking at 33-38p, if not we will be on our way to the good times

GLA

Messi - you may well be right.

CPI will look very different in 12 mths that is for sure

GLA

as a few here have said, no chance of a divi - but if there is talk of it next year, then this will show that the BOD believe the new contracts are sufficiently profitable

Re the staffing question - no, people are not recruited nor are they sitting waiting for new contracts - contract wins come with TUPE transfers

Schroeders added back what they sold to get the Shorts their profit over last 2 weeks - just what happenned in Jan / Feb but on a much tighter timeline

However, they wanted those shares back because they will be multi bagging IMHO - tmrw from 07.00 we will have an indication as to how long it will take to multi bag - but it will for sure, just dony know if its within everyones timelines

GLA - Discord chat for analysis from 07.15 tmrw!!

NoFear, Danny thanks - yes Ok I see that you are suggesting that Govt half is providing 50M p.a. and therefore Capita EBIT must be similar - so if its a long term entity - say 50M EBITDA on DCF basis over 7-10 years still gives 400M but with potential to grow over that period so 500M is feasible

That sale would generate a one off divi also IMHO - even if it was only 200M in Divi and 300M off borrowings

Would certainly be a game changer for SP that is for sure!

Cheers all

I'm a little confused NoFear - wouldn't the return be over the 10years? - so with only 18-24mths left of the 10 years, why would you suggest the company is now worth 1BN?

You may well be correct, its just that I cant see it?

The S Ireland one is almost over also?

it will be a transfer between funds - tiny diff between buy / sell - there hasnt been enough traded under 9.90 for MMs to otherwise be holding enough to make the sale - MMs dont sell at a loss mind!!

So the sell at 9.90 and the buy at 9.900024

Serco results are out - ours Wednesday is the simple reason!

It will be a question of how many buys come through today/tmrw to see if MMs can soak them up, especially if they really believe there will be a big rise coming Wednesday, they will want to be holding as many cheap shares as possible

GLA

I agree that people are waiting on Capita actually delivering - Profitablity from Continued operations and profitability of new contracts are unknown to us

Re BP, they are changing their model massively - they will take a year or 2 to prove that I would suggest - its a bold transformation for them, and I wont be holding their shares until this is known

NoFear - thats a bold statemnt - 140M EBIT?

That would give us a conservative 90p in my mind - I can see that for 2020 - yes for 2021

Would love it, but thats too big a jump from where we are IMHO

Didnt quite get to 43.5p as I predicted (hoped!) but it did bounce big!

Lets see what we can close out at?

LOL!!!!

Was inevitable with the expected increase in interest rates to curb inflation, with the debt mountain we have here.

80p will do me nicely though!

GLA

43.5p tmrw, then a big bounce?

Hope to close day in green

Blank -

we get is a day or 2 after it happens - but if you look above on the tab "CPI Short Positions" you will see what is latest - only issue is they take often 48 hours before we get to see them!

Wouldnt surprise me to find out Sandbar close their short on Tuesday and we get an increased holdings RNS for Schroders all on Wed / Thursday

Again, Schroders will have made a few quid lending their stock as well as taking profits, then when shares are low, they buy back so they do what they did in January and get paid twice for their holding in a couple of weeks that price would've been 50p and nobody was making money

So Schroders, Sandbar, MMs all make money, as the PI passes their shares over cheap as they 5*** themselves!

Its just a game to them - play the game with not against them

Yes - and probably decision tied in with Sandbars short?

Will be interesting to see if Sandbar close their short by Monday

Only a slight increase by them 2 weeks ago, but price was circa 46p - think they felt they would get this chance so maybe another drop tmrw to help them get their margin?

Then hopefully close the day around 48p, 50p Monday, 51-53p Tuesday - thoughts?

GLA

agreed Blank - think below 50p was v low risk

Therefore trading the swings is relatively safe then - Its playing the game - I will certainly be reducing my current holding starting at 50p (these last 2 days buys), 58-62p for bulk of shares then the rest during to 60s to 70p, then leave 20grand for 18 mths

We all try to make money in different ways, I guess my point on these drops was to say it was in the charts and dont worry - I also choose to make money from the drops - but as long as we all make money at the rate people want to

GLA

Wilmsy - take a look at Eats charts on discord group - Ive sent you a chat there

No issue with sitting on your initial investment for 2 years - I also bought at 23p and I have added lots since - also sold lots

BUT - see my comments over a week ago, as I was open from the time we were at 38p, that I would trade this all through 40s - when we get to my sell on this tranche of trading (not my main holding) I will have made in 10 days more than most hold here, when price will have been 50p at start and end of period

More ways to make profit than it just going up - thats all I am saying

GLA

Wilmsy - the charts indicated that there was a drop likely - yes the MM's control but they also need to make money and create volume etc

I have been buying every dip this past week or so and selling between 49.8 and 50.3

I have made 5k this week doing this and when this dip gets back to 49.8 my (30K) sells will be hit - I have a lot of cash in for next week - whos to know if we dont hit 49.8p by close of day - but we will get there very soon

BUT taking the 15mins/ hourly /daily charts this drop is certainly not a surprise

I also believe there will be lots of opportunity to do this in 60s soon also

GLA