Member Info for KnockinOnHeavens

Simple. Drop well overdone. Market always overreacts. All fear and uncertainty. Nothing wrong with the business. No scrutiny, no suspicions, nothing. All ricochets from NMC. Realistically, it should never have dropped below 100p in the first place. Travelex back and running. EBITDA 183m in the first 9 months, EBITDA for the whole year will likely to be well in excess of 200m. Current market cap: a little over 400m. Ridiculous. It has to re-rate at some point. With a solid trading update, Travelex and other temp issues sorted this has to be worth +150p easily. IMO.

KOH

AAL can stick an increased offer where the sun don't shine. I'd welcome them as a partner, but a takeover - no thanks.
__

The same here. It will be NO from me regardless. We all deserve to own a piece of it.

KOH

Can't believe that Fraser & Sirius board have basically been sitting doing nothing since December 2019 (or even earlier).....No real attempts to rescue the project, no effort to maintain and maximise shareholders value. Instead they kept JPM on the payroll after disaster in September 2019 and secretly ran the clock down to support predatory offer for next to nothing and securing positions / payoffs for themselves and projecting the fear to the real owners of the business (us) in the same time. The whole last 18 months begs for investigation. If they offered bonds to the public via official channels and invested a few mil in advertising & promotion of this great british project this would have been oversubscribed in a fu#ckin week easily.....A simple survey of little over 1700 people indicates an appetite for over 42m worth of bonds and there are well over 60 million people in the UK alone....add all the institutions....Think about it - raising £460m was never really an issue, pure and honest intentions of people entrusted with the task of raising £460m were.....

Vote NO.

KOH

Yup, it's good to be suspended atm :)

KOH

dogger69

Nobody really knows the nature and scale of those discrepancies at the moment, that's why we have an investigation. The sooner the better. Nobody's going to bid now, too many uncertainties. We just have to wait and see. For now be glad it's been suspended, it would have been absolutely battered today.

KOH

Yup definitely, it would have been a top faller today if they hadn't suspended it. FCA RNS in the afternoon would have finished it. It was the most sensible thing to do. It can open anywhere depending on findings and results in the coming weeks, too early to speculate.

KOH

Cesna,

Ok, I get the point now. Yes, it would appear so. Shetty's pledged shares technically are not an issue, in case of margin calls he would lose big time personally but the company itself should be fine. It would actually de-leverage balance sheet. As long as books are not cooked (and there is no reason to assume that they are) and the company is running at a profit (and according to last trading update it is) we are good. FIN was never under any scrutiny, no suspicions, nothing. Next solid trading update is just a matter of time IMO, we had a great first 9 months (EBITDA 183m) and this almost certainly continued in the last 3 months of the 2019 (coronavirus and cyber attack happened after Xmas so no impact on YE2019 results), BayanPay's confirmed expansion in Saudi, Travelex back and running too. Unfortunately we've been caught in the middle of the perfect storm and are constantly getting hit by NMC ricochets atm! It won't last forever though. So yes, a bit of clarity re shareholding + trading update and we are good. Drop well overdone, market overreaction (as usual). It has to re-rate big time at some point.

KOH

Longish

Thanks, but what are you trying to say?

KOH

.... Or stay here and short it
___

You are a bit late I'm afraid. Shorters already made money all the way from 170p. The current price has all the negatives factored in IMO, that's why we are where we are.

KOH

KOH

FCA Investigation
___

Wow do they actually perform that function? I thought they just......exist.....
On a serious note, I wouldn't expect anything else. It's been all over media for a while. The sooner the better. They won't find anything else the others wouldn't find.

KOH

KOH

Wow really? I bet plenty of fools were saying the same thing about NMC as it dropped at £2, £1.50, £1.00, £0.80.... as well as many other companies that have fallen into an abyss.
___

Wait for the fall then or move on to another share if that's what you chose to do.

KOH

Or a greater time to buy might be when it's another 10-20% lower?
___

You can think this way and one day you'll just wake up and see it 10-20% higher....And your opportunity will be gone. Well overdone atm and suffers greatly because of NMC. That's all. Nothing wrong with the business and it will re-rate on any hint of positive news. Huge upside from here, not much downside. IMO.

KOH

Panderman

I agree. Great time to buy and it won't last forever.

KOH

Totally uninvestable now .corruption bad loans you name it.AVOID.
___

What loans? Obvious de-ramp. Filtered.

KOH

One caveat though, if the book keeping errors were insignificant , then I can't see why it would take them until the end of April to sort them out...?
___

They won't be sorting the reconciliation until the end of April, the RNS says that "the independent review is not expected to conclude for several weeks, with the consequence that the Company does not expect to be in a position to publish its FY2019 before the end of April 2020". So they need a few extra weeks due to extra reconciliation work in order to be in a position to form an opinion resulting in the delayed YE accounts. Pretty standard schedule considering the circumstances, certainly not a massive delay. IMO.

KOH

But there’s no way the CEO, and Shetty himself get fired with no formal explanation
___

This is absolutely necessary to restore the trust and confidence in business and had to be done. And there is no nice way to do it. Shetty wasn't fired, he resigned. And he did the right thing considering the circumstances. Heads rolling is a very good sign IMO and a clear signal to the markets. The world is watching. Suggesting that "It’s not plausible to suggest this is a minor error" is nothing but speculation at this stage. I'd rather have that than never ending saga and complete lack of trust in the BOD. They do the right thing as painful as it may seem atm. IMO.

KOH

alwayswrong

"In the course of their work to reconcile NMC's cash balances and net debt as at 15 December 2019, the Review Advisers have identified potential discrepancies and inconsistencies in the Company's bank statements and ledger entries. The Committee and the Review Advisers are investigating these matters and seeking to determine the materiality of the discrepancies."

Nothing really to even suggest that those relate to the guarantees. Please also note the words "potential" and "materiality". It could be anything really (poor bookkeeping practices, missing backups, variety of errors & omissions due to incompetence at all levels - it happens a lot everywhere) and not necessarily material in the grand scheme of things but because the advisors know the whole world is watching they prudently felt obliged to mention the current state of affairs and the results of the reconciliation to date (just to be on the safe side).....I've seen too many discrepancies in my life to be bothered at such an early stage and before the nature and levels of materiality are known. In most of the cases the uncertainty is much more damaging than the bad news itself. My personal bet would be that they are just over-leveraged but the underlining businesses are actually doing fine. This is not some ponzi scheme, these companies do turnover billions every year, provide legitimate services and run at a profit. The NMC board is getting cleared and it's a very good sign IMO. The sooner the better. There is no nice way to do it. First step to rebuild trust and confidence done, as painful as it may seem atm. Suspension was needed too considering the circumstances, shorters won't get the opportunity to damage the SP any further. All IMO.

KOH

Bluelight

These are not loans, they are guarantees. Read my post yesterday at 23:54 for full explanation.

KOH

Fired its CEO and suspended other senior finance members after hidden loans are discovered
___

What hidden loans?

KOH

Suspension is a very smart and sensible move. Hopefully it will see through the rough times caused by coronavirus and wont give the shorter further opportunity to ruin the price any further. Results wether bad or good will have just the impact it deserve when suspension is finally removed.
__

I agree.

KOH