Member Info for KnockinOnHeavens

RNS re Shetty's NMC holding - step by step muddy waters are getting clearer ;)

KOH

Yup, it's doing really well considering the circumstances. This is a solid business, just caught in the middle of the perfect storm. It will be fine if one's willing to wait a while. I wish I had more spare funds, I'd be topping up all day at these levels.

KOH

Not necessarily. Let's wait for the trading update and a bit more clarity re NMC. This is hugely undervalued and great buying opportunity at these levels. Besides the whole FTSE is down over 3.5% today so we actually outperform the index. I don't even consider selling at these levels, it is worth much much more.

KOH

If it can be demonstrated to Sirius Minerals that the £460m could be
raised they will have to listen.

We are talking to the institutional share holders but need to understand
the private investor interest in raising the £460m.

There is a dedicated web site and brief survey here:

http://www.fundsirius.com/

Please take a look, take the survey and spread the word. The more
interest there is the more chance of a positive outcome.

THIS CLEARLY NEEDS MORE PUBLICITY. Only a little over 1500 took part in the survey so far. PLEASE SPREAD THE WORD AND SHARE THE LINK WHEREVER YOU CAN. What's interesting out of a 1500 people surveyed so far the average amount is over £19,000 which would allow to raise almost £30m ($42m)! AN EXCELLENT RESULT! At that rate only around 24k people could raise the WHOLE amount! THIS NEEDS MORE PUBLICITY and should go viral and beyond this forum. At the moment not enough people KNOW about the survey which is clearly reflected in the number of people taking part. PLEASE SHARE IT WITH EVERYBODY and SEND IT WHEREVER YOU CAN - media, TV, newspapers, friends, family, ALL shareholders even strangers. PLEASE USE ALL CHANNELS OF COMMUNICATION AVAILABLE. Email, phone, social media, spread the word - STRENGTH IN NUMBERS.

Thanks in advance
KOH

had*

suddenly last Autumn the kids were withdrawn from local schools, and the house has been shut up for ages.
___

At that point he probably have a good idea that the business is going for a song. I don't trust a single word that snake says, the whole "strategic review" was a smokescreen.

Vote NO.

KOH

Try to imagine if the offer came via official channels directly from the company and they invested a few millions in advertising. This would be all over media and oversubscribed in a fu#ckin week...and it can still done. We dont even have to raise full 460m by the end of march - we can easily raise 50-100m now to keep the lights on for months, invest a little bit in advertising and keep raising more for months while looking for more stable solution and still keeping 100% ownership of the business. And most importantly get rid of the enemies of the people's project: Fraser and his clown brigade. Enough.

Vote NO

KOH

Measuring the performance of the management is not an easy task especially in the company that is not even operational yet. The performance indicators used to assess it therefore must be different. We know that they failed big time in securing the funding. We know that. But how to measure one's good intentions? How to measure their level of willingness to achieve certain result? How to measure levels of self interest, their honesty and integrity? How to measure the energy they put into the task? What are the benchmarks? Are we supposed to believe that they've done "their best" only because they say so? In a normal company management that is not performing can be removed by the owners of the business and stripped of their salaries, bonus, even share options. In contrast to that our clever management ran the clock down dragging the company to the verge of bankruptcy only to make the owners of the business face the choice: you either sack us for underperformance and go bust today or crystallize a huge loss tomorrow and accept predatory offer for a tiny fraction of the value of your business that will guarantee us huge bonuses, payoff and future employment that we negotiated on your behalf and recommend to you now. This is borderline criminal and begs for investigation.

Vote NO.

KOH

Do think its worth more than 100 if everything is normal
___

Let's wait and see, hopefully it will be back to "normal" soon.

KOH

Not really "50:50" if you hold for a while IMO, perhaps "50:50" in the very short term....

This should never have dropped below 100p and it wouldn't if Travelex attack didn't happen. 183m EBITDA in the first 9 months + services already recovered. Crazy valuation at the moment, huge bargain. This is a legitimate company, just caught in the middle of the perfect storm that is suffering due to what's happened to NMC. Governance issues are temporary by definition and easily fixable, as long as books are not cooked and they perform well, it just has to re- rate at some point. Even if Shetty wanted to sell it they will do their best to drive the price up first. IMO.

KOH

Well done, Jblish.

Vote NO.

KOH

Trading update potentially next week, full year results around mid April.

KOH

Longish

Yeah, same old same old....They've been "seeking clarity" for some time now, nothing really changed.

On the 19th company confirmed that "The independent directors have been informed that the Shetty family and their advisers are not yet in a position fully to respond to them but have undertaken to do so as soon as possible" and that they are "seeking to resolve the position by the end of February 2020 at the latest."

Let's wait and see. I know from experience those things can take a lot of time and it's not necessarily a bad thing. Freeh was employed to provide independent opinion and add credibility, last statutory financials were fine according to EY.

KOH

Longish

I know but which part exactly are you referring to?

KOH

Restructuring the debt may or may have not have implications. All speculations. The guy employed professionals to get him out of that trap and Freeh to provide some credibility. That's exactly what he should be doing. It's all takes time and unfortunately uncertainty kills atm. IMO

Where did you read "RNS confirming there is an unknown problem with the directors/ related parties and 'officers' accountability under the companies act"?

KOH

I understand over-leverage, chains of events and subsequent margin calls can cause an avalanche and further temporary drop in the SP but at the end of the day the shares are sold to the open market, isn't it? And as long as the books are not cooked and company delivers strong financials results it has to re-rate at some point. Even If the banks sold some of his shares this would de-leveraged off balance sheet debt which is good for the company in the long run. And Shetty will obviously take the biggest hit (personally). IMO.

KOH

Pokerchips

I wouldn't call "two entire floors of the Burj Khalifa" splurging, it's not necessarily a bad investment and could be worth much more today than at the time of the purchase....

Me too, but the real "over-leveraging game" is only for the really rich I'm afraid but yes, if one gets it right it can make you very rich in the relatively short period of time :)

KOH

I am not adding to the panic. Great buy opportunity at these levels. Trading update on it's way. Travelex fully operational. Nothing really changed since yesterday or a couple of days before when it hit 86p - it's all panic and sentiment. I wish I had more to top up here.

KOH

Plus we don't even know if there will be any takeover at all. The guy is having a hard time, no wonder he employed Houlihan "to explore strategic options for his holding company, including a potential debt restructuring or the sale of some assets". He needs professionals. The above doesn't really say much, a "takeover" is nothing but a wild speculation atm.

KOH

Pokerchips

Hmm let's see. Too many speculations atm and the markets take advantage of uncertainty. I personally still think that those drops at both FIN and NMC are well overdone. Operationally both companies are performing well and deliver solid financial results. Perfect storm & cascade of events is what dragging it down. Extended uncertainty periods are often much worse than the news itself. As long as books are not cooked (and according to Ernst Young Auditors NMC's accounts give a true and fair view) both businesses should be fine. Over-leveraged Shetty got caught and paid the price. FIN was hit by cyber attack & coronavirus on top of that shareholding nonsense. All in the short period of time and all temporary. Silence & bad sentiment kills any recovery. Need some news to turn the tide. IMO.

KOH