Member Info for KnockinOnHeavens

I agree BIGBangs, hugely oversold.

Perfect storm and tons of panic. It was in fact oversold on much higher levels. Sale won't last forever. Fill your boots while you can, i just did too.

KOH

Talk*

Of course it was a BUY on 06/02/2020 considering the information available at that point in time you clown...and it is still a huge BUY today.

Come back in 6 months, we'll take about VALUE then, not in the middle of coronavirus panic.

KOH

Algo trades having fun today...

KOH

Yup definitely, great news. More clarity. Shareholding confirmed now, no other pledges (no hidden obligations), all systems recovered with a hit that will mostly be covered by the insurance so.... Now we are left coronavirus and some groundless panic re association with NMC. Is it worth 80% drop in value since December? Not even close. A screaming buy at these prices.
PS. More general panic today, whole FTSE down over 6%.

KOH

Doddle

"The NMC simply provided a contractual guarantee in case of non-payment or default in case companies owed by related parties weren't able to meet their contractual obligations to credit providers. These balances were approx $335m at the end of the year. Nothing unusual if you think about it, companies do it all the time. The only problem is that this hasn't been approved by the board and contingent liability as they call it disclosed in the notes to the accounts. Normally those disclosures give the users of the accounts an estimate of the potential financial effect and better understanding of any associated risks. This doesn't, by any means, mean that the company owes $335m. As long as the entities owed by the related parties pay their debts, which they are, there is basically no financial impact. The facilities will also "no longer be made available for further supplier financing" so no future impact possible. It could be as simple as a guarantee and support for the smaller entities with no sufficient credit rating & cash flow available in order to enable them to grow quicker & operate on the higher level. There is no mention of any defaults & inability to pay obligations by those businesses. They may as well be operating successfully and running at a profit. Plus their stock is under lock down, which can be used to pay for any potential debts. Obviously the guarantees should have been approved by the board & disclosed in accordance with the Listing Rules."

I wrote that. Thanks for "quoting" me I guess....

KOH

Rastuss

No worries, all good.

Best KOH

Rastuss

No point of having a further debate, none of us has sufficient understanding of company's internal controls and most importantly - detailed contractual obligations and financial position. I will personally wait before drawing any conclusion.

Thanks
KOH

Adzy2k11

You keep shooting yourself in the foot I'm afraid.
Check again, clown.

KOH

Rastuss

"FTSE100 Company" simply means top 100 company by market capitalisation. This is not, by any means an indicator of the quality of internal controls.

KOH

"is either stunning naivety or plain stupidity."
____

No, plain stupidity is stating that the " value investing hasn’t been working for 12 years" and then pasting the link to the graph of iShares S&P 500 Growth Index showing the 300% growth over the last 12 years to support your claim.

KOH

"Perhaps you should overlay that with a graph of the growth index over the same period - let me help you."
___

That's for confirmation:

USD 61.74 on 7 March 2008 to USD 185.10 on 6 March 2020.

And yes, you should definitely rest your case.

KOH

Rastuss

Thanks, the only thing I would say that I recently came across delayed payroll issue (almost 3 weeks) in the company of 16 simply due to sudden suspension / resignation of FD who held all the passwords and was responsible for all authorisations / processing .It then took a newly appointed accountant almost 3 months to deal with the domino effect it created. And that's just a small ltd company in London. Imagine the company of the size of NMC with all those underlining issues. It takes time to react, establish processes, find replacements, deal with backlogs etc. We don't know the state of the company's finances before news hit. We don't know the details of payroll processing & the level of delegation to external parties and their response to suspension & investigation news. All I am saying is that i would give it some time before drawing conclusions. The reality is we don't know any details & circumstances yet.

KOH

The world now is very different to 1975, there’s many structural reasons why value investing hasn’t been working for 12 years
____

Perhaps you should inspect the Berkshire Hathaway graph over the last 12 years before making that statement.

https://www.google.com/search?q=berkshire+hathawaygraph&rlz=1C1CHBF_en-GBGB882GB882&oq=berkshire+hathawaygraph&aqs=chrome..69i57j0l7.10427j0j9&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

KOH

Charlie Munger under performed (over 30% consecutive losses in 1973 and 1974) only to make +72% in 1975....It doesn't matter - price always follows the value, eventually. You may be losing money not because you are wrong but simply because your time horizon isn't right....Give it some time, don't panic yet.

KOH

Rastuss

Please read my previous post, it could be a combination of factors. It can take up to 14 days to obtain a basic card replacement, I was waiting +10 days recently (in UK) without any access to online banking let alone the whole authorisation process with multiple senior members of staff missing and in the middle of investigations in the middle east. Simple things can take time and delay processes big time. Payroll system doesn't prepare pay runs, it calculates tax liabilities and net pay before any further verification / authorisation by senior members take place. Payroll could have be outsourced to external provider who refused to process the payments in light of the recent suspension / investigation. That would mean finding an alternative and re-registering thousands of workers in a very short period of time. As at today my understanding is that NMC haven't legally failed on their February 2020 salaries yet.

KOH

There is no issue at all. It was an overreaction at 80p and it is even bigger overreaction at 40p. In fact, this should never have dropped below 100p. Look at the figures and give it a few months. Pointless discussion in the middle of NMC and coronavirus panic. We can have a discussion after the summer.

KOH

adzy2k11

Yes, it is. Definitely.

KOH

Dogger69

Most of the board & seniors are gone. We don't know the company's internal procedures, authorisation processes & impact on processing and day to day management. Some staff may have been assigned additional tasks due to ongoing investigation adding to their workload, they also have to make sure they double and triple check anything they do now. All takes time & resources. In fact we don't know much at all. Some of the staff were already paid I believe + NMC would not legally default on its February salaries until March 16 according to Davies. It is 7 March today. There is no evidence to form any logically grounded conclusion or expectation of "administration on Monday".

KOH

I think most of you are overreacting without a knowledge of any solid numbers. Look around, this temporary suspension is the absolute best thing that could happen. Markets all over the world take beating over the virus, a month of uncertainty would only compound the drop and further panic. Instead, you have a chance to wait for some facts in a protected environment. If it hadn't been suspended majority would have sold at a hug loss by now. IMO.

KOH