Member Info for KnockinOnHeavens

Cherokee101

Fingers crossed - I really hope you are right.
Could be a complete change of direction though, one never knows what's happening behind the scenes.
Another surprise and "alternative" scenario episode 2? After recent months, nothing coming from SXX shocks me anymore.
I just hope it won't go into administration first and then gets built by the new owners, we've seen it in the past...

KOH

Cherokee101

I may quote you in May 2021, so get ready :)

PS. I don't believe in mortgages either.

KOH

Casual

Best to have both, health and wealth. Not to mention that wealth can sometimes buy you better health :)

KOH

Surinrog

All the Best to you too.

KOH

I have all my savings in SXX and I am 60% down atm. I am not taking a 60% hit, no way. I am not selling a single share.
I also disagree with many here - my strategy was always high-risk high-reward. At my age (mid-thirties) my reasoning was as follows:

- if it goes bust I lose 10 years worth of savings, OR
- If it gets built I retire 25 years before retirement age.

No brainer for me. I took the gamble and I am sticking with it. Although I recognize how difficult it is for us all, I am not going to change my mind. I get upset, fearful, angry (which often finds expression in my posts:) like we all do seeing what's happening but i also take the pain every day like a man. Ultimately it was my decision and I take full responsibility for it.

I also disagree with the general concept of "diversification" as a way of making money at the early stages of your financial journey. Diversification's good if you are trying to PRESERVE your existing capital but to make money (within a reasonable timeframe) and without having much capital you just have to CONCENTRATE and take risks. Many famous investors considered "safe" today, took huge risks at the early stages of their careeers.

Just my point of view but think for yourself.

KOH

In the 1970s, a young Los Angeles-born bond trader called Michael Milken demonstrated the hidden value in these previously taboo bonds. “Junk” was out — “high-yield” was in. As the seventies turned to the eighties, Mr Milken realised he could take this one stage further. While a mergers and acquisition boom was in full swing, the early progenitors of private equity could only raise limited debt from traditionally conservative banks. Mr Milken filled the void, marshalling his now devoted high-yield disciples into funding heavily indebted new acquisitions. This minted the fortunes of so-called “junk bond raiders” such as Carl Icahn and Nelson Peltz, as immortalised in Connie Bruck’s 1988 book The Predators’ Ball. One thing has remained constant for high-yield investors since the Milken-era: cash flow is king. Companies need to generate enough money to service their debts. And even when Mr Milken’s deals became punchier and had questionable cash flows, investors still took comfort in the belief that the company’s assets would cover their investments. In contrast, Sirius is still building its mine so does not yet have any cash flow. If it defaulted today, bondholders would be left with a giant hole in the ground, into which they would need to pour more funding. Sirius’s chief blames the failed deal on temporary market jitters and plans to relaunch it next month. The fate of the largest new mining project in UK for a generation now hinges on whether he has correctly read the psychology of high-yield bond investors.

What should a company do when its traditional funding channel is either closed or too expensive? One of the oldest tricks in capital markets is to tailor your pitch to an entirely different audience. When taken to extremes it can appear akin to preying on the less financially sophisticated. But this technique can also benefit all involved, as institutions that are better suited to taking on the risk get access to a new investment opportunity. Sirius Minerals, the developer of an ambitious mining project on Britain’s North Yorkshire Moors, recently adopted this strategy. After early funding ideas fell through, it wrapped a risky project finance deal in the clothing of a corporate high-yield bond, pitching the deal to investors who typically invest in the debt of companies with less than stellar credit ratings. Its chief executive has pulled off the trick once before, as a banker advising Australia’s now well-established Fortescue Metals. Yet Sirius fell at the first hurdle. The high-yield community did not bite, even though the deal offered the highest yields seen outside of China this year. To understand why, it is worth looking at the high-yield history books, particularly as the enduring popularity of riskier corporate bonds actually stems from one of the greatest examples of this capital markets ploy. So-called “junk bonds” at one time only existed when previous investment grade-rated companies were downgraded and then shunned by fund managers.

It's "delusional", Alan.

KOH

AlanG

Delusion continues.

KOH

15LIVES

I am long too - either full production in 10 years long or administration in a couple of months long :)

KOH

a.spence

Excuse me but you are deluded. It's a carnage.
We'll be lucky if we ever breakeven. I have no hope anymore. It's completely out of control.

KOH

Please stop talking nonsense about the government. The government doesn't give a tiny rat's @ss about this project. They never really did. It's not even a realistic option worth mentioning.

It's pretty simple - it's either sell bonds or die tryin'.....

KOH

To be honest with you for the first time I have a really bad feeling about this investment. It's no longer about the beautiful dream, huge potential, bright future. It is a brutal reality check and realization that the worst case scenario is a very real possibility here, not because of some "unfavourable market conditions" but because of the ubiquitous greed and the way it's been handled and agreed from the very beginning.

We might be approaching a grand finale now I don't trust any of them - BOD, Fraser, JPM - they all broke my trust a long time ago. Unfortunately everything is possible now, including administration. Not sure what to do with this one to be honest, taking a 50% hit tomorrow could turn out to be a good decision in the "long run".....

I need to sleep on it.

KOH

Unless market conditions will dramatically change resulting in better rates. But nobody really knows therefore they are playing a risky game and the clock is ticking.

I personally think they knew exactly what impact would that temp suspension have on the SP...I don't trust BOD anymore, I don't trust Fraser and I certainly don't trust JP Morgan thugs. It's all connected. Somebody's making money on that drop as we speak. It's not a coincidence IMO. There is too much money to be made before we get to "construction risk only" stage.

KOH

It doesn't.

KOH

And when you think Fraser took all your money already.....He comes back for more.....

Further dilution definitely possible.

KOH

JPM Boys: Hmmm what can we do? This fu#ckin share is going to re-rate if we announce that the bonds have been successfully sold now. Not good enough. We need more. Let's call that b#itch Fraser and his doormat Staley and shake the market a little bit. Too much certainty is never good for us, vultures.

Fraser: Hello? Speaking. Yes sir, I understand. Right away, sir. I'll make sure this is suspended first thing tomorrow. Yes, difficult market conditions sound excellent. Thank you for your ca....beep beep beep
Staley you fuc#kin bi#tch, write that bloooody RNS or you're fired, NOW!

KOH

Nope. A false analogy. Doesn't make much sense. They are completely different businesses with diametrically different risk profile analysis.

KOH

And, excuse me asking, what has Eurotunnel business got to do with Sirius Minerals business (apart from the "tunnel")?

But as always with our dear brightest star in the Earth's night sky, don't count your chickens....

KOH