Member Info for kign

Merger complete & we are down?

Ithaca tax % seemed lower than HBR? Seems strange?

Good, I thought the sale didn't make sense and was too cheap. also, should look out for the hess assets which might be for sale soon

Best outcome for HBR would be no one will buy it whilst Labour is in power and then, they will absorb all the shares of catcher for nothing.

Link to article here: https://www.energyvoice.com/renewables-energy-transition/ccs/552064/perenco-poseidon-orion-ccs/

It's a waste disposal business, the ones that excel in squeezing the last drops in an oil field will likely do well here.

Wintershall has some stake all over Europe but what caught my eye is this Poseidon UK project and from the online videos, it sounds like the operator, Perenco knows what they are doing and might in fact inject the first co2 underground in the UK later this year.

If you Google abit more, you'll realise this company managed to increase production from a mature field in Brazil from 2,800bopd to 20,000bopd!

Not sure who will buy it. production seems decent with reasonable reserves.

I think the £3.60 current valuation is not too far off from mine with those numbers published. A few additional considerations that I think we'll need to be mindful of:

1. I think there is alot of room to reduce the Wintershall costs as the current numbers seem to include a significant chunk of redundancy costs and the absorption of Russian unit costs?

2. the 2C resource portfolio has quite a number of projects that are very close to being sanctioned and hence will be additional 2P reserves eg Zama. I'm also surprised with the amount of 2C resources in Argentina. Adding to HBR's Indonesian finds, this bodes a very good future going forward.

3. Labour's hostile oil and gas policies should have been priced in and I don't think HBR had used much of the tax clawback incentives (maybe only Talbot?), so don't see much change in the UK side of the business except that the UK 2P reserves will have to be reduced eg some of the sanctioned infill well projects & planned electrification may have to be cancelled as they are no longer economic without the tax clawback.

4. Labour made a mention of CCS in their manifesto, I've always thought that this business will not work without government subsidies. However, this is a great chance for Labour to say that CCS investment will be tax deductible (UK's answer to 45Q) and classify that as creating green/blue jobs, helping with the north sea transition. I'm also surprised with the extent of wintershall's involvement in CCS in the UK & Europe.

Other than that, very impressed with the Norway assets despite the high taxation.

Weighted average coupon of c.1.8 per cent and weighted average maturity of c.4.5 years

See this times article from a long time ago, not sure if Labour still thinks they can obtain £13B from a proper windfall tax:

https://twitter.com/thesecretacct/status/1644600486245416961?s=46&t=BH1wAVgy-vHRolnTmmu5zQ

This will mean they will target international income and lead to the exodus of Shell & BP?

As a reaction to the wet news last night, HBR should hint that a US listing could be a possibility.

He probably hasn't read woodmac's may 2024 report on Asia gas demand ie no signs of growth slowing until 2035, big push from Asian countries to move from coal to gas....

...and there's another report in the internet showing timpan only needs 0.5tcf to be economic if the arun LNG plant can be brought back and we are looking at 11-17tcf now in the area with sangkar and numerous more prospects yet to be drilled

From mubadala: https://mubadalaenergy.com/news/mubadala-energy-announces-major-gas-discovery-in-south-andaman-indonesia/

Discovery with potential for over 6 TCF of gas-in-place marks a major development for the Southeast Asia energy landscape

Https://gulfnews.com/business/energy/uaes-mubadala-energy-makes-its-second-big-gas-discovery-in-indonesia-1.1715582799210

"The Tangkulo-1 well encountered 80 meters of gas column in a good quality Oligocene sandstone reservoir confirmed through an extensive data gathering campaign that includes obtaining a full core of 72 meters, wireline logging, sidewall core, pressure and fluid sampling," the company said in a statement.

"Utilizing a new Drill Stem Test (DST) design, the well successfully flowed 47 mmscf/d of excellent gas quality and 1,300 barrels of condensate. Although testing was constrained by testing facilities, the estimated well capacity is 80-100mmscf/d and over 2,000 barrels of condensate."

86055 on an old calculator is Bboss.

She's sending a clear message that she's the Boss 😂

Carlos looks busy: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/mexicos-pemex-hand-over-natural-gas-project-business-magnate-el-heraldo-2024-04-18/

Doe adjustment factors back to 1.2mmbbl, don't think it'll go down again until the US elections are over

Https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-11/russia-attacks-ukraine-gas-storage-sites-driving-prices-higher?embedded-checkout=true

Talos Energy to sell carbon capture unit to TotalEnergies for $148 mln

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/talos-energy-sell-carbon-capture-unit-totalenergies-148-mln-2024-03-18/

NSS, I don't think anyone can really "give" you some numbers without making a couple of big assumptions.

I believe this time it will be different because whoever is in the EIG/Noble/GIC/ARCM group of investors have already sold all the HBR shares they want to. While it may be tempting for BASF to sell their shares to honour their green credentials, all their scope 1 & 2 emissions will already be transferred when they assume the shares so why not keep it and enjoy a good dividend with low risk?

Also, they would be wiser not to if they actually study the case of EON's divestment of their Uniper assets (before the Nord Stream saga).

For those unaware, EON in pursuit of their green agenda spun off all their "dirty" coal/gas/nuclear power plant units, shares of their Russian gas fields & pipelines to Uniper back in 2016. EON paid the consultants/bankers with the money they earned from the sale of their oil & gas unit which ironically became part of HBR (UK side) and Wintershall DEA (Norwegian side). Upon the listing of Uniper in Frankfurt, Uniper share price increased by 150% in around a year & even close to 300% when the Ukrainian war started.

The world is still hungry for oil & gas & I think with the the new HBR, cashflow generated will be immense and will open up more options like the giant gas fields that is currently owned by Kosmos.