Member Info for kign

This should be on BBC!

This news should have no impact.

I thought HBR's Argentinian LNG project is a different one from Shell + YPF's?

Using existing FLNG, no new pipelines to be built, etc.

Sadly, another 100 jobs to go!

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/586060/harbour-energy-cuts-another-100-north-sea-jobs/?utm_content=486154449&utm_medium=social&utm_source=linkedin&hss_channel=lcp-5053468

London-listed Harbour Energy plans to slash investment across its UK North Sea assets amid "challenging" government policy that will see its UK portfolio shift into managed decline....Harbour will reduce investment in its UK North Sea assets to around $500 million from next year, half of the $1 billion invested in 2024...

https://www.upstreamonline.com/production/harbour-to-shift-north-sea-assets-into-managed-decline-amid-investment-cuts/2-1-1880417

Https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/business/local/6850865/harbour-energy-hq-in-aberdeens-prime-four-business-park-for-sale/

Not sure if the ministers get it

Listen to the webcast here: https://cc.webcasts.com/barc002/090225b_js/?entity=13_KVOTXCO

You must have an extraordinarily large wallet for the security guard to be puzzled :D

Look up ARCM. They built a 16.85% short position in Premier Oil, contested PMO's plan to buy the shearwater assets publicly and escaped with only 800k fine and alot of profit.

Yes these kind of things don't happen on the markets :D

Mr.shorter is on holiday maybe :D

I think he's referring to the IT department. There are now cloud services for oil & gas software so there is no need to maintain expensive IT equipment to run the simulations, etc

I find it a bit concerning that Alexander Krane is not really answering the analyst questions. Most of his replies are along the lines of "you can check the numbers in the report, vary xxx to test sensitivity"...but there are some assumptions Alexander's team is making especially on taxation that is not obvious? (e.g. EPL-adjusted decom costs, why is 78% tax applied on non-UK profits, hardly any tax allowances/credit applied, how did a 3% increase in EPL result in a 6% increase in effective tax rate and on top of that another 23% increase attributed to the "impact of different tax rates"? etc)

Thanks Stevo, have you had a look at the deferred tax component on the financial statements?

In Capital Markets RNS, FCF outlook is now revised to ~2-4B!

What is going on? Did they make a mistake on the previous numbers?

From RNS:

The effective tax rate of 108 per cent (2023: 93 per cent, as restated) is materially higher than the statutory tax rate of 78 per cent (2023: 75 per cent). This is primarily due to several UK-specific exceptional items. Key contributors include the increase in UK decommissioning obligations in the period (15 per cent), the impairment of tangible and intangible assets in the UK (4 per cent) and the increase in the EPL rate from 35 per cent to 38 per cent (6 per cent).

Am I reading this right? Does it mean the UK assets are not generating enough profits to offset the decommissioning obligations?

Https://www.harbourenergy.com/investors/corporate-bond-and-credit-ratings/

from the numbers here, it does not seem that the debt repayments are outrageous ($180M or so?)

Thanks londoner7, my model is too simplistic to consider all the different tax regimes & discounts to the oil/gas price in other countries. Your method seems logical and works well!

Considering your EBITDAX/boe of $49.6 (HBR) vs $71 + higher debt on AkerBP's side, it still looks like HBR is greatly undervalued?

Thanks londoner7, does your model concur with HBR's estimate of 1B FCF then?

Https://www.harbourenergy.com/investors/corporate-bond-and-credit-ratings/

There is a 2025 expiry of a EUR1B senior notes in Q3'25, is this the reason why FCF is lower than expected?

ShaunCod £3.12

Bots £3.20

theancient £3.35

NSS £3.45

kign £3.60

Pros:

- reverse merger for US listing, easily double our valuation?

- improved balance sheet once GTA LNG is online

- more oil in the portfolio, long life reserves

- should be easy to sell their Equatorial guinea assets with trident & panoro keen to expand

- huge undeveloped resources with NOCs rumoured to be interested, will be great for a growth story

- stand to benefit from tullow's collapse if they go under

Cons:

- huge debt (2.3B was it? but I think around 800M in RBL)

- much higher rates than HBR's

- lost quite a bit of their exploration talent over the years