Member Info for kign

Wow, 2B+ debt, opex 30-40/boe, negative fcf!

Would have made sense as a form of merger arbitrage if HBR is buying noreco but so far there does not seem to have any proof of that.

there are some concerning reviews on Glassdoor though:

"Not all actions are above board. Worrisome in an SEC registered advisor."

but they do file their notices though.

Perhaps there needs to be a look on the other vultures associated with them like Kite Lake, Caius, Astaris.

Looking into this Vietnamese deal more closely, it does seem abit weird that the Indonesian Tuna development is dependent on an export route via Vietnam?

Is this going to harm the value of Tuna?

Please note legislator approval of Zama in Talos statement:

In June 2023, Mexico's Comisión Nacional de Hidrocarburos approved the Zama Unit Development Plan previously submitted in March 2023. Talos is actively working with the Zama Unit's Integrated Project Team to progress the front-end engineering and design ("FEED") and other workstreams required to reach a Final Investment Decision ("FID").

Have a look at HBR's job listing for a VP - CCS. Says they will focus on North Sea, GoM and SEA. The rumours are not for nothing although I wish they would look at kosmos instead.

Https://www.fnlondon.com/articles/arcm-hedge-fund-fined-after-fca-short-selling-breach-on-premier-oil-20221017

The FCA said at the time that the matter was particularly serious because ARCM’s short position in Premier Oil was the largest net short ever held in a company traded on the benchmark London Stock Exchange. ARCM's short was equivalent to 16.85% of the issued share capital in Premier Oil by 5 July 2019. It then held it for a further 106 trading days before notifying the FCA and disclosing the stake to the public.

Public info only if you file the right notices

Won't be surprised, the fine might be less than the admin work required to file these notices 😂

Please remember hbr did not participate in the licensing round:

https://www.ft.com/content/1a219f8c-5b23-497f-8db6-5fda92caacbd

That's for talos, the rumoured merger candidate

It's a multibillion pound project, not sure if those millions will make a difference. You just have to look at the humberside projects that were not given the funding despite an earlier promise of £20B :)

However, wintershall has publicly said they would want to reach 30Mtpa of CCS, so buying HBR on the cheap would add alot of capacity to their credentials very quickly & allow BASF to exit on a high.

Buyback person on summer holidays? 😂

Whatever the case, it looks like some news have leaked from the direction of the share price!

Nothing material to report?

KAN - largest shallow water discovery in Mexico just announced in may with no impact on share price though? To be followed by Ix soon as well.

30% share of 200-230 prospective resources is not too shabby!

https://www.woodmac.com/press-releases/kan-discovery-in-mexicos-shallow-water-one-of-the-largest-since-2020/

Nice, what's going on with aker bp 2025f fcf?

you can see kosmos' fcf is also very muted as GTA Phase 1 is about to come online Q1'24 and i don't think it's priced in yet.

Another brexit benefit :D

I think it's no coincidence yesterday with the big buybacks from certain parties, this share is known to be very leaky....

Note also recent Prax acquisition of Hurricane for US$300.6M with 2P: 6.6MMbbl, 2P+2C: 38.2MMbbl

so $45.5/bbl (2P)!

or 7.9/bbl (2P+2C)

Based on the last few messages, fcf is projected to be $1B.

market cap is now £1.79B, so 2.3x?

I think I saw a Jefferies comment a few weeks ago that says UK-dominated oilers are valued at a max 1.75x EBITDA due to WFT. But current SP is valued far below that, so maybe my fudged EBITDA estimates were right? 😂

Considering such a low volume, I'm not surprised the ai funds are shorting these heavily. no wonder there's no care for fundamentals