Member Info for KGinvest

I filtered savagecrybaby now terry is in the bin too; only an idiot can have fun with another idiot

@firepower: your name is an anomaly to start with as you haven't got any firepower; keep blabbering about the falling share price.. from memory, the low of the year is 26.9 and it hasn't been below that since. You also have no idea how MM games are played neither how shorts operate.. learn something instead of harping about the same old same old. you made a mistake for buying too high and selling at it's lowest, now you feel the itch to justify your decision by convincing others to sell.. your message is sell and people get it and unless you have anything new other than "it's a sell because it always goes down", don't bother the rhetoric as people are not dumb; I for one have put you and smokey in the filter bin and I am sure most others will eventually do the same..

what a sad individual!

"KGInvest, you really do not want to cling on to a business that is redirecting the positive FCF from say, Alsa, or WeDriveU, to a business with ROCE-dragging down figure, like NASB."

Where did you get the feel that I was in support of keeping NASB; was just correcting a bloke who quoted something incorrectly inferring that net debt is not coming down due to the sale. Of course the net debt is going to come down but not as much as was hoped. And for avoidance of any doubt, I don't think they should keep it - if a BU is not earning enough ROCE, a prudent management should get rid of it. In fact, they should have got rid of it many moons ago - just same theme of poor management - chasing revenues without any actual return.

"It's already known the firesale will be debt neutral it hasn't moved the needle."

Seriously? Feels like some of you don't bother to read or are just deliberately misinterpreting things. Who told you the NASB sale is debt neutral? It is covenant debt-neutral meaning the covenant gearing of 2.8x remains the same because EBITDA for school bus is removed.

Found something in the annual report about the Hybrid bond which might be of interest. No wonder why they don't want to get rid of the hybrid; looks like an unsecured loan with no recourse to asset if the company goes into liquidation. I wonder who is the counterparty.

"The contractual terms of the instrument allow the Group to defer coupon payments and the repayment of the principal indefinitely. However, any deferred payments must be made in the event of a dividend distribution." ..... "As the Group has the unconditional right to avoid transferring cash or another financial asset in relation to this instrument, it is classified within equity."

"Market cap £200M

£500M bond due for payment soon..."

Thanks for regurgitating what everyone already knows, really deep analysis

Didn't they say in the press release that full year guidance will be shared with Q1 results? can't find it anywhere - anyone knows?

"I can't see RWC's latest holdings that AimLess put out, but assuming that they have sold down to 7% from 11%"

I don't think they have, for any change in their position, they would have issued RNS which is mandatory at their level of holdings.

"They sold their main business"

more jokers popping up, just the usual, time to stay away from this message board

@firepower: I am sorry I was trying to be polite in describing you; it's not just you don't have a life, you are a complete dimwit too. Do you even know what an EV is? You cannot over hype an EV. Good luck to you and your fellow shorters.

@firepower: have you got absolutely nothing better going in your life? if you think shorters are always right, why don't you just follow them and short everything they are shorting, must be the easiest way to make money. By that logic, you should have shorted mobico a long time ago, why did you go against your own analysis? I think you just couldn't take it after selling out on a loss and now you are trying to justify your 'sell' decision by trying to convince people to sell as well and then going on, repeating yourself like a broken record.

This company has its problems, which is why the share price is where it is. Even with it's underlying problems, this can still easily go to 50s without materially increasing it's EV. Rough calculations, EV at 28p is £1.9b and EV at 50p would be £2.0b. The reason the share price has been sliding is because there isn't any imminent solution to their problems (interest rates, Germany, UK) and it will take time and in the world we are currently living in, no one has any patience. Not justifying the f-ups from the management but we are no where near a bankruptcy risk. Even if they have to sell UK, Germany for £0, which I think they should, ALSA & WeDrive would demand a valuation of about £2b in open market (conservatively) and then add £250m of cash coming out of US school bus, we should have an EV of £2.25b, translating to a share price of between 80-90p.

Markets are always harsh on bad news but that doesn't mean this is a basket case.

@Polishcap: where are you getting the short position updates from? it's not showing up on this website or here:

https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB0006215205/

"Fcf of 0.9billion at just $65brent and 12mscf gas has derisked this share massively !!! That is a game changer."

Sorry to be a party pooper, but unless I have read this completely wrong, they are projecting just 0.2b FCF for the next 9 months with these assumptions of oil price and gas. Q1 enjoyed much better FCF due to better commodity prices. So just to be clear here, what they are telling us is that if the prices are to stay where they are for the next whole year, they will do some 0.3b FCF which doesn't even cover the current dividend. That's not something to be excited about, right?

Before someone start shouting me down, I am long here and have been averaging down from last two months.

@Offgrid: "it was the Cosmens who forced out Garat." what's the source please?

"I was simply making a point that a higher share price makes us more attractive to institutional investors. That has to be a good thing?"

Actually no, there is no corelation between a share price and how IIs do their stock picking. IMO, it's just a fud exercise, a complete waste of corporate time. I would rather they focus on delivering what they have committed, this is their last chance. Any more slippage on target numbers and Adolfo would lose his credibility.

@JG: I think there's lot of nervousness about german contracts; imo we wouldn't see any re-rating until that's resolved

"There you go, that’s what we needed, back up to the 40-50s tomorrow"

Only if it was that simple mate; I think this should at least stop the bleed, I would just be happy if this stays above 30p in the short term

Yeah what was Phil White blabbering about? So confirmed that non-IFRS lease payment of $75m would come out of net proceeds - really poor deal price all things considered

Anyone has any knowledge on what share premium reduction they are talking about in the rns?

I don't think the $75m non-IFRS lease is covered by the net proceeds; at least reading the below. It says after paying non-IFRS lease, remainder of net proceeds... which tells me that they are only left with c$300m net proceeds, really poor outcome; this clearly a fire sale

"At completion, Mobico is expected to receive approximately $365-385 million (~£275-290 million1,2) in upfront net proceeds for covenant deleveraging, after deductions for IFRS 16 leases, other debt-like items within School Bus including deferred capital expenditure, other items and transaction fees (the "Net Proceeds").

Reported net debt will be further reduced following the removal of School Bus' IFRS 16 leases of approximately $38 million (as at 31 December 2024).

The final amount of Net Proceeds will be subject to customary completion adjustment by virtue of the completion accounts mechanism agreed with I Squared and dependent on the timing of completion.

After repayment of School Bus non-IFRS 16 leases (approximately $75 million as at 31 December 2024), the remainder of the Net Proceeds will initially be held as cash."