Member Info for KGinvest

Ryanair is about 7 times the market cap of easyjet.. i can't see why that gap should be anymore than 4 times. now will this gap close with easyjet sp going up or ryanair sp coming down is anyone's guess but I know where my money is and it's not on ryanair

Shows how interconnected everything really is these days.. one silly coding bug left by a lazy coder (my assumption), mass disruption across the globe

@Mary, it seems I am in lots of stocks you have invested in to and I do value your opinion. I did sell this earlier in the 90s because the net debt seems too daunting to me. It has become very tempting again for a trade position but long term, this still remains a high risk stock, isn't it?

Yeah massive beat. so this is where i don't get it: adidas with similar annual operating profit to JD has a market cap of c40b while JD has only c6b. I know one is OEM and the other a retailer but surely it shouldn't result in such a valuation gap, right?

That's the problem, given the history of last two years, you can never know what other 'nasties' they spring on us which is why I moved 50% out of it and added to easyjet and cpi.. if they do manage to sell off NA even at a bargain price, this will double from here at the very least. It is also reassuring to see the 4.875% bond back at 98, the level it started trading back in Oct 2023

@JG: agree, this one looks good to keep going for now, there's no way a LTH be selling at these levels unless one is too exposed in allocation terms

Where is @Hindy hiding! Would be good to hear what your technicals indicate now..

I feel this has been carried along with others but not much substance yet to be seen in terms of volume; mind you that's how we went down too with very low volumes.. it feels we are due at least some good news before H1 results.

@JG: you got a very decent reply imo, all too expected from a company trying to get on top of things. Now compare this reply with what we generally get from MCG IR which is total bull. I am seriously temped to move some more holdings from MCG to here even after this 50% rally.

@HV, think you are on to something. I am surprised why the funds waited till the last day to get this completed; it will turn out to be a damp squib if that's the case.. I had started raising my hopes for an II raising a stake!

Correct me if I am wrong but never have I seen a UT of 14m, not even on result days.. something's brewing

could be the seller finally done now; either way we should start moving up

@Hindy: i say this with upmost respect but so far most of your TA predictions have been incorrect. It could be the sceptic in me but it all feels like jiggery-pokery to me

We have got some filthy idiots on this board who don't understand how long term investing works, would look at stock prices daily, come on this board and ask stupid questions such as 'how are you holding stock while being so much under water' and pretend to be sympathetic.

For ppl who have got actual money in here: please think why you bought into this company and if you topped after the drop why did you do so. for your own sanity's sake don't get influenced by these scaremongers who haven't got a penny at stake. Stick to your judgement - there's a reason why 70% retail investors don't make money and one of the main reasons is that they get influenced easily and end up buying and selling at wrong times

I have just bought another £20k worth of these in my ISA for this year - thank you to the panic sellers

Many thanks Jatw. One thing if I can clarify, the property crisis in China shouldn't directly impact Pru as it is primarily a life insurance and annuities business right?

I must say, it sounded odd that they didn't have the AGM in UK and instead chose to do in HK.

Hello all, can anyone help me understand what has transpired in last few years for this share to be at sub 800 level? I used to track it pre covid but never bought it. Looking at the latest annual report, my gut feeling is it is a strong buy but missing the historical context.

You are welcome Laralara; I should have also mentioned that even with all this, 53p is not justified price for the company so I am expecting to go up with interest rates coming down to around 80-90p level. But the upside is likely to be capped until a major turnaround such as selling US business. Selling ALSA wouldnt' be a bad choice as you should always sell in upturn but cosmens wouldn't let them.

@Laralara: this may be of some help to provide context; from their annual report:

"The Group has in issue a Sterling denominated hybrid instrument of £500m, with an annual coupon rate of 4.25%. The contractual terms of the instrument allow the Group to defer coupon payments and the repayment of the principal indefinitely. However, any deferred payments must be made in the event of a dividend distribution. The instrument was issued in November 2020 and the terms also allow for the instrument to be redeemed at the option of the Group at five years after issue (first call date) and 10 years (second call date), and subsequently at each coupon date or in the event of highly specific circumstances (such as a change in IFRS or change of control). As the Group has the unconditional right to avoid transferring cash or another financial asset in relation to this instrument, it is classified within equity. The annual coupon rate is fixed for the first five years, and thereafter reset according to the specific terms of the issuance"

My understanding is that the coupon rate on this will reset at start of 2026 and as things stand with interest environment, Fitch expects that to go to 11% (from the current 4.25%) which obviously wouldn't be viable for Mobico and therefore, if we would have to refinance it via another hybrid, the equity conversion of that hybrid would be based on the current share price which is less than half of the share price in 2020. Basically it's a convertible bond and it has already lost more than 50% of its equity credit but because these hybrids are not marked to market, the balance sheet still has them at its face value from 2020.

Think of it from the perspective of share price : if the share price at the end of 2025 happens to be around 120, then no equity credit would be lost.. this is all jiggery pokery and there is no way the investors are going to call on this and convert it to equity given the current state so for all practical purposes it is a debt.

To me this is a ticking time bomb; if this were to get refinanced as a hybrid again and the share price remains where it is now, this can potentially result in massive shareholder dilution down the line. Just thinking aloud, it could easily become an equivalent of 1:2 RI so I hope the BoD can sort out their mess in next 18 months.

Happy to corrected if I have mis-stated anything.

GL

there will always be some people who would start wetting their pants (re ri, bankruptcy etc) without realising what's going on. then they start conjuring up scenarios on how and why there's more pain to come.. tbh, if you belong in that group, pls do yourself a favour and don't put money in stocks - there's a tidy return on fixed savings, why bother with the intricacies of the market especially a corrupt one like we have in uk.

this churn, i have seen in multiple shares at different times, recent being future plc which is now double the price it was a month ago by just reiterating what they had said in the past.. these so called analysts were writing about how ai will kill off this content company etc etc.. they also had about 3% declared short interest.. nothing similar to mobico other than this one-sided narrative.. same one sided narrative keeping many other good companies down..

ppl are crossing their fingers and hoping the management doesn't another bomb; i say pls do it so that i can accumulate more at dearth cheap prices.. my original average was 120 before the big drop and after this rinse and repeat of last 3 months, it is now 68 and i have about the same level of exposure. i am far from being an intelligent investor so not bragging and i am sure lots of ppl have done this. only thing i have changed in my investing style recently is to cut out the noise and just focus on the hard facts. gut feel, fear mongering, ******** about mgmt is not gonna help in anyway and will distract you; try not to fall for the false narrative.

btw my opinion on the mgmt hasnt changed; they are as useless as they were two years ago but it's not within my gift to change them so not point moaning about it. one thing i remain confident about is that even with this fud mgmt in place, we will go into the 100s very quickly once the narrative shift from the current focus on debt to fcf yield.

remember the guru mantra, when in doubt, always look at bond prices.. bond investors are much more risk averse than stock market participants so any signs of actual distress, bonds will blow first.. rest everything else is noise including this £80m acquisition; that's like 5% of the debt and will immediately start contributing towards ebidta which means no impact on gearing ratios.

so keep your wits about fellow members

Hindy, thanks for the providing some colour, it makes sense now.. looking at the simple MA50, we are above it and RSI under 70, we should have some legs to go up further if macro complies and even without any positive news flow, we should at least be heading back towards 90.. i am slightly disappointed that no more stake increase by cosmens could only mean they were increasing to detract potential bidders and are now just happy to bide their time

Hindy, not to ruin the party but on your chart it happened in December too.. i am no chartist though so may be reading this incorrectly

@JG68 - don't lose your marbles mate.. there are always many shorters below 0.5% threshold.. just because we don't see them appearing in the list doesn't mean they are not there. A lot of these small increases in shorts are driven by technicals and many of them are done by algos just following the trend.. tbh i don't mind more shorters appearing on the horizon; it will hasten whatever needs to happen which is either cosmens showing their hand or a PE firm looking at it from the angel of SOP valuation